Market evolution: Durum wheat (CN 100119) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Durum wheat (CN 100119, excluding seed for sowing) is a specialized cereal primarily used for pasta, couscous, and semolina production. The European Union is a major player in the global durum wheat market, both as a significant importer and as an exporter to Mediterranean and African destinations. This report examines the evolution of EU trade in durum wheat over the period 2015–2025, drawing on customs data covering trade with non-EU countries. The analysis reveals a market shaped by persistent structural deficits, shifting sourcing patterns, and periodic price shocks linked to geopolitical and climatic events. The full overview provides further details on the trade flows discussed below.

1. A Market in Structural Contraction

EU trade in durum wheat has declined markedly across both imports and exports

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU durum wheat market experienced a broad-based contraction. Import values fell by 22.7% (from €906 million to €701 million), while import volumes declined by 15.9% (from 2.60 million tonnes to 2.18 million tonnes). Export values fell more steeply at 60.2% (from €417 million to €166 million), with volumes declining by 42.8% (from 1.07 million tonnes to 611,000 tonnes). Unit prices also softened: import prices dropped by 8.1% (from €349/t to €321/t) and export prices by 30.4% (from €391/t to €272/t), compressing margins for EU traders.

The EU runs a persistent and widening trade deficit in durum wheat

Throughout the entire period, the EU recorded a negative trade balance in durum wheat, reflecting its role as a net importer. The deficit widened from €489 million in 2015 to €535 million in 2025, a deterioration of 9.4%. This structural deficit underscores the EU's reliance on external suppliers to meet domestic demand, particularly from the pasta and semolina industries concentrated in Italy and southern Europe. The trade balance data highlights this persistent gap.

Italy dominates intra-EU demand as the primary import hub

Among EU Member States, Italy was by far the largest importer of durum wheat throughout the period, accounting for the vast majority of import value. Italian imports stood at €697 million in 2015 and remained at €570 million in 2025 (a decline of 18.2%), reflecting the country's enormous pasta processing sector. Belgium and Spain followed at a considerable distance, with Belgium declining sharply (−57.9%) and Spain growing modestly (+28.9%). Notably, Germany and the Netherlands, which were non-trivial importers in 2015 (€28 million and €15 million respectively), saw their import values collapse by nearly 100% by 2025, suggesting a significant restructuring of sourcing patterns within the EU. More details are available under top reporters by value.

2. A Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships

Traditional suppliers from North America are losing ground

Canada has historically been the EU's dominant durum wheat supplier, and it remained so in 2025 with imports of €394 million. However, this represents a decline of 27.1% from the 2015 level of €540 million. The erosion was even more pronounced for the United States, whose exports to the EU fell by 57.8% (from €202 million to €85 million). Mexico, which supplied €14 million in 2015, saw its trade collapse to virtually zero by 2025 (−100%). These shifts suggest that North American suppliers have progressively lost market share in the EU, likely due to competitive pricing from alternative origins and evolving trade dynamics. The partner data provides a detailed view of these trends.

Black Sea and Central Asian suppliers have gained substantial market share

Against the decline of traditional suppliers, new and emerging origins have grown significantly. Kazakhstan's exports to the EU surged by 213.5%, from €33 million in 2015 to €104 million in 2025, making it an increasingly important source of durum wheat. Türkiye showed a similarly dramatic increase of 212.8% (from €20 million to €61 million), while the Russian Federation grew by 40.3% (from €16 million to €22 million). These shifts reflect the broader reorientation of global grain trade toward Black Sea and Central Asian origins, driven by competitive pricing, expanded production capacity, and improved logistics.

EU export markets in North Africa have contracted sharply

On the export side, the EU's traditional markets in North Africa — long the primary destination for surplus durum wheat — have declined dramatically. Tunisia, the largest export destination, saw EU shipments fall by 70.7% (from €194 million to €57 million). Algeria experienced an even steeper collapse of 88.5% (from €61 million to €7 million), and Morocco fell by 90.7% (from €49 million to €5 million). Exports to Türkiye essentially ceased, declining from €47 million to zero (−100%). These declines likely reflect increased competition from Black Sea suppliers in North African markets, as well as shifts in local procurement strategies. The United Kingdom, by contrast, remained a relatively stable market at around €17 million, with only a marginal decline of 1.9%.

3. Geopolitical and Climatic Shocks Amplify Market Volatility

The 2020–2022 period was marked by severe price shocks in EU exports

The data reveals significant price shocks in EU durum wheat exports, concentrated around 2020–2022. The most pronounced occurred with Algeria in 2022, where export prices exhibited an abnormality score of 30.9 and a year-on-year shift of +102.5%, indicating that prices roughly doubled. This shock accounted for 12.5% of total export value that year and coincided with the global commodity price surge triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A prior shock hit exports to Türkiye in 2020, with a price abnormality of 26.6 and a staggering shift of +272.6% (prices roughly quadrupling), capturing 8.0% of export value. Morocco experienced a similar price shock in 2021 (abnormality 12.3, shift +101.8%, share 7.6%). These events reflect the extraordinary volatility in global grain markets during this period, driven by supply chain disruptions, drought conditions in key growing regions, and geopolitical tensions. The supply shock analysis provides further detail on these episodes.

Import volatility is highest among newer, less-established suppliers

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values reveals that the EU's most volatile suppliers are those with smaller or more intermittent trade flows. Iran, Islamic Republic of exhibits the highest CV at 2.82, followed by Argentina (2.05) and Mexico (1.82). Among the major suppliers, the Russian Federation (1.04) and Türkiye (1.48) also show high volatility, consistent with the geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties affecting Black Sea trade. By contrast, Canada (0.39) and the United States (0.66) — the traditional suppliers — demonstrate considerably lower volatility, reflecting long-established and more predictable trade relationships. More is available under volatility analysis.

Export destination volatility is moderate, except for Türkiye

On the export side, the United Kingdom stands out as the most stable destination (CV of 0.30), consistent with its role as a steady, proximate market. Tunisia (0.44) and Mauritania (0.41) also show relatively low volatility. By contrast, Türkiye exports exhibit a very high CV of 1.26, reflecting the abrupt collapse and subsequent disappearance of trade flows to that market. Overall, EU export volatility is lower than import volatility for most partners, suggesting that the EU's export relationships — while declining in scale — are somewhat more predictable in their annual patterns.

Import concentration has modestly decreased, while export concentration has fallen significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration declined from 4,108 to 3,636 (−11.5%) over the period, indicating a modest diversification of import sources. For exports, the decline was far more pronounced: from 2,702 to 1,702 (−37.0%), reflecting the collapse of concentrated North African export flows and a more fragmented destination profile. Both indices remain in the "moderately concentrated" range, but the trend toward lower concentration — particularly on the export side — signals a structural shift in the EU's trading relationships. The concentration dashboard offers additional context.

Conclusion

The EU durum wheat market underwent a significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most prominent trend is a broad contraction in trade volumes and values, with exports declining more sharply than imports, widening the EU's structural trade deficit. This decline was accompanied by a major reconfiguration of trade partnerships: traditional North American suppliers (Canada, the United States, Mexico) lost market share to Black Sea and Central Asian origins (Kazakhstan, Türkiye, Russia), while EU export markets in North Africa (Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco) collapsed, likely due to increased competition from those same Black Sea producers. The 2020–2022 period stands out as a phase of exceptional volatility, with dramatic price shocks reflecting global commodity market turbulence linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, drought conditions, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Looking ahead, the EU's durum wheat trade landscape appears to be one of greater geographic diversification on the import side but reduced export capacity, with implications for the competitiveness of European durum wheat processors and the resilience of supply chains for this strategically important cereal.