Market evolution: Other cereals (CN 1008) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in products classified under customs code CN 1008, which covers buckwheat, millet, canary seed, quinoa, triticale, and other minor cereals. The EU remains a substantial net importer of these products, with a trade deficit that stood at €115 million in 2025—improved from €131 million a decade earlier. Over the period under review, the market has undergone significant structural shifts: rising export unit values, a diversification of sourcing away from Russia and the United Kingdom, growing importance of South American suppliers, and divergent trajectories across the seven constituent product sub-categories. The following sections identify and interpret these dynamics.

1. A Structural Net Importer with an Improving but Persistent Deficit

The EU consistently imports far more of CN 1008 products than it exports. This pattern persisted throughout the 2015–2025 window, though the deficit narrowed notably over the decade.

The trade gap narrowed by 12% in value terms

In 2015, EU imports of CN 1008 products were valued at €146.9 million while exports reached only €15.8 million, yielding a deficit of €131.2 million. By 2025, imports had eased to €135.8 million while exports grew to €20.7 million, narrowing the deficit to €115.1 million—a 12.3% improvement. The deficit also varied considerably across the period, reaching its narrowest point in 2017 at approximately €80.6 million before widening again.

Import volumes declined while export volumes fell even more sharply

Import quantities decreased from 147,109 tonnes in 2015 to 133,397 tonnes in 2025 (−9.3%), and export quantities dropped from 17,149 tonnes to 13,709 tonnes (−20.1%). This means that the improvement in the trade balance was driven entirely by price effects rather than volume gains on the export side. EU exporters managed to ship less product but at significantly higher prices, suggesting a shift toward higher-value segments.

Export unit values surged by 65% over the decade

The most striking price dynamic is the divergence between export and import unit values. EU export prices rose from €919/t in 2015 to €1,513/t in 2025—an increase of 64.7%. By contrast, import unit values remained relatively stable at around €999–1,018/t (+2.0%). This divergence likely reflects a composition effect: EU exports increasingly consist of higher-value products such as quinoa and millet seed, while imports cover a broader range including lower-priced bulk commodities.

2. Geopolitical Shifts and Partner Diversification Reshape Sourcing

The geography of EU trade in CN 1008 products was significantly reshaped over the decade, driven by Brexit, Russia-related sanctions, and the growing global importance of Andean quinoa.

Russia's share collapsed after 2022, while South American suppliers consolidated their position

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the near-disappearance of Russian supplies. EU imports from Russia fell from €7.6 million in 2015 to just €1.5 million in 2025, a decline of 80.3%. The collapse accelerated sharply from 2022 onward, coinciding with EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia had been a significant supplier of millet and other minor cereals.

In contrast, South American quinoa exporters—Peru and Bolivia—consolidated their position. Peru remained the EU's single largest import partner by value at €30.1 million in 2025 (down from €38.4 million in 2015), while Bolivia grew from €25.8 million to €35.5 million (+37.4%). India also emerged as a more important supplier, rising from €6.2 million to €11.1 million (+78.4%).

Brexit visibly reduced bilateral trade flows between the EU and the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market had a marked impact on CN 1008 trade flows. EU imports from the UK fell from €8.4 million in 2015 to €2.9 million in 2025 (−65.3%), while EU exports to the UK declined from €6.4 million to €4.9 million (−23.4%). Both flows show a step-change decline around 2020–2021, consistent with the end of the transition period. The UK, which had been the EU's second-largest export destination, retained its first-place ranking among EU export partners but at substantially reduced volumes.

EU export destinations diversified significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports in value terms fell from 2,057 in 2015 to 1,259 in 2025, a decline of 38.8%. This substantial drop indicates that EU exporters diversified away from reliance on a few markets (notably the UK) toward a broader set of destinations. Serbia stands out as the fastest-growing market, with EU exports increasing from €0.3 million to €1.8 million (+535.4%). Switzerland (+60.2%) and the United States (+80.2%) also grew meaningfully.

Import-side concentration, by contrast, remained relatively stable (HHI of 1,576 to 1,616), suggesting that while individual partners changed, the overall degree of supplier concentration did not shift dramatically.

3. Quinoa Dominates the Import Basket, While Sub-Segments Follow Divergent Paths

CN 1008 is a bundled heading encompassing seven sub-categories with very different market characteristics. Quinoa dominates import value, while other sub-segments—particularly millet seed and triticale—exhibit highly volatile trajectories.

Quinoa accounted for over half of import value throughout the period

Quinoa (CN 100850) consistently represented the largest share of EU imports by value, reaching €71.2 million in 2025—over half the total. Quinoa's import unit value, while declining from a peak of €3,957/t in 2015 to around €2,504/t in 2025, remains far above any other sub-product. This reflects quinoa's status as a premium health-food commodity. Import quantities grew from 18,577 tonnes to 28,434 tonnes, suggesting that volume expansion partially offset the price decline.

The decline in quinoa prices from their 2015 peak is consistent with the global oversupply that followed the rapid expansion of cultivation in South America and elsewhere during the preceding years.

Canary seed imports shrank, while millet seed for sowing surged

Canary seed (CN 100830) was the second-largest import segment by value, but showed a declining trend: quantities fell from 50,109 tonnes in 2015 to 32,486 tonnes in 2025 (−35.2%), while value fell from €29.9 million to €21.3 million. Canary seed prices, however, rose from €597/t to €655/t, partially cushioning the value decline.

By contrast, millet seed for sowing (CN 100821) grew dramatically: imports surged from €0.5 million (666 tonnes) in 2015 to €2.1 million (1,562 tonnes) in 2025. Unit values also rose sharply from €729/t to €1,318/t, potentially reflecting growing demand for millet cultivation in Europe driven by climate-resilient crop strategies.

Several sub-segments experienced pronounced volatility and supply shocks

The data reveals significant price shocks in specific trade corridors. The most notable supply-shock events detected include:

• Serbia (exports, 2021): A price shock with an abnormality score of 78.2 and a price shift of +112.7%, corresponding to 5.8% of EU export value that year.
• Brazil (exports, 2023): An extreme price shift of +543.2%, though at a small share of total trade (1.5%).
• Ukraine (imports, 2018): A +42.5% price shift affecting 12.1% of import value.

The coefficient of variation in bilateral trade flows further highlights which corridors are most unstable. On the import side, Kazakhstan (CV: 1.47) and the United Kingdom (CV: 0.58) showed the highest volatility. On the export side, Brazil (CV: 1.75) and Ukraine (CV: 1.35) exhibited extreme instability. These patterns are consistent with small market volumes magnifying normal fluctuations, and in Ukraine's case, the disruption caused by the ongoing conflict.

EU member-state specialisation is concentrated in Eastern Europe

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that Lithuania (RSCA: 0.84) and Latvia (0.82) are the most specialised EU member states in CN 1008 exports, followed by Poland (0.62), Romania (0.53), and Estonia (0.53). This Eastern European concentration is consistent with the historical cultivation of millet, buckwheat, and canary seed in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. By contrast, Ireland (RSCA: −1.00), Finland (−0.99), and Denmark (−0.90) are the least specialised, reflecting their dominance in other agricultural sectors.

Conclusion

The EU trade in CN 1008 products over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural import dependency combined with significant market reorganisation. The persistent trade deficit improved modestly in value terms (−12.3%), but this was driven by rising export prices rather than volume growth—a sign that EU exporters are moving up the value chain while relying on imports for bulk supplies.

Three forces shaped the decade: the global quinoa boom that cemented South American dominance of the import basket, Brexit-related disruptions that reduced bilateral flows with the United Kingdom, and the geopolitical fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that collapsed Russian supplies and introduced new volatility via Ukrainian trade. Meanwhile, the diversification of EU export markets (HHI declining by nearly 40%) signals a maturing export sector increasingly oriented toward non-traditional destinations such as Serbia, Switzerland, and the United States.

Looking ahead, the growing demand for climate-resilient crops (evidenced by surging millet seed imports) and the continued popularity of quinoa as a health food suggest that the EU will remain a structurally import-dependent market. However, Eastern European member states—particularly the Baltic countries and Poland—possess demonstrated comparative advantages that could support further export growth, provided market access conditions remain favourable.