Market evolution: Vehicle lighting parts (CN 851290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade evolution of EU trade in parts of electrical lighting or signalling equipment, windscreen wipers, defrosters and demisters for vehicles (CN 851290) over the period 2015–2025. The sector is critical for the automotive industry's supply chain. Analysis of the provided data reveals a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position: from a net exporter with a significant trade surplus to a position of near balance and import reliance. This transformation has been driven by a rapid surge in import volumes, primarily from Asia and emerging European economies, while export growth has been more modest. Furthermore, the internal EU market shows increasing trade intensity and a notable geographic concentration of production and specialisation in Central and Eastern Europe. The dynamics point to deepening global integration and evolving competitive advantages within the bloc's automotive supply network.

1. From Surplus to Balance: A Decade of Trade Reversal

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the erosion and near-reversal of the EU's trade surplus in vehicle lighting parts.

• Imports far outpaced exports. EU imports grew by 84.4% in value, from €503 million in 2015 to €927 million in 2025. In contrast, exports grew by a more modest 18.1%, from €774 million to €914 million (General Overview).
• The trade balance collapsed. The EU's positive trade balance, which stood at €271 million in 2015, had swung to a slight deficit of €-13.5 million by 2025, representing a -105% change.
• Volume growth underpinned the import surge. Import quantities increased by 70.1%, indicating a substantial physical increase in goods entering the EU, not just price effects. Export quantities rose by only 13.2% over the same period.

This shift is also reflected in the EU's net import reliance, which moved from -6.4% (indicating a net exporter status) in 2015 to -1.4% in 2025, marking a move towards self-sufficiency or import dependence (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

2. Shifting Geographies: The Rise of New Supply Hubs

The sources of the EU's imports underwent significant restructuring, with concentration increasing and new partners rising to prominence.

• China consolidated its position as the top supplier, more than doubling its exports to the EU. Its share of EU imports is substantial, though its growth rate was surpassed by emerging European and North African partners.
• Serbia and Morocco experienced explosive growth. Serbian imports grew by over 500%, while Moroccan imports surged by over 750%. This reflects the deepening of EU supply chains in Western Balkan and Southern Neighbourhood countries, likely driven by cost competitiveness and proximity.
• The import market became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 34.2% from 1455 to 1952, indicating a move towards a less diversified supplier base, dominated by a few key players (Market Structure).

On the export side, the UK remained the top destination but with modest growth (+18.2%). Exports to Serbia and Türkiye also grew strongly, while exports to the US and China declined, suggesting a reorientation of the EU's export markets.

3. Internal Market Dynamics: Specialisation and Growing Trade Intensity

Despite the changing external balance, the internal EU market for these parts shows signs of deepening integration and specialisation.

• Intra-EU and extra-EU trade intensity grew markedly. The trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) rose from 13.6% to 23.4%, a 72.6% increase, indicating the sector's economy became significantly more exposed to and dependent on global trade (Autonomy & Vulnerability).
• Production value within the EU expanded substantially. EU production value grew by an estimated 140% between the first and last available years (Market Structure). This suggests that while the trade balance weakened, the absolute scale of the industry within the EU increased.
• Specialisation is heavily concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe. Using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index for 2025, the most specialised EU producers in this product category are Slovakia, Czechia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria. This aligns with their major roles in the European automotive assembly network. Conversely, countries like Cyprus, Ireland, and Malta show no specialisation (Market Structure).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's market for vehicle lighting parts (CN 851290) has been fundamentally reshaped. The EU transformed from a clear net exporter to a position of balanced trade, driven by a rapid import surge that significantly outpaced export growth. This import boom was fueled by massive increases from China, Serbia, and Morocco, leading to a more concentrated supplier base. Internally, the sector's trade intensity doubled, and production value grew substantially, indicating a deeply integrated and expanding industry. However, the geographic heart of this production within the EU is increasingly located in Central and Eastern European member states, which now exhibit strong comparative advantages in this segment. The overall trajectory suggests a sector that is globally interconnected, with its competitive and supply chain geography continuing to evolve within the European automotive ecosystem.