Market evolution: Automotive electrical parts (CN 85129090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in parts of electrical lighting or signalling equipment, windscreen wipers, defrosters and demisters used for motor vehicles (CN 85129090) over the 2015–2025 period. The data covers EU trade with non-EU countries and reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation. The EU has historically maintained a trade surplus in this product category, but the period under review saw a dramatic shift as imports nearly doubled in value while exports grew at a more modest pace. At the same time, EU domestic production more than doubled, rising from €3.03 billion to €7.27 billion (General Overview). Three main dynamics emerge from the data: the erosion of the EU's trade surplus driven by surging imports, a pronounced geographic realignment of trade partners—particularly the rise of Serbia and Morocco—and an intensification of the EU's integration into global automotive supply chains.

1. From surplus to near-balance: The import-driven erosion of EU competitiveness

1.1. Imports nearly doubled while export growth lagged

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence in growth trajectories between EU imports and exports. Imports surged by 89.0% in value (from €487.2 million to €920.7 million) and 71.0% in volume, while exports grew by only 20.7% in value (from €751.0 million to €906.6 million) and 14.2% in volume (General Overview). This asymmetry is reflected in price trends as well: import unit prices rose by 10.6% (from €15,825/t to €17,496/t), outpacing the 5.7% increase in export unit prices (from €23,728/t to €25,073/t). The EU's traditionally higher unit values for exports suggest a specialization in higher-value-added components, but the faster import price growth may indicate either rising input costs for foreign suppliers or a shift toward importing more complex parts.

1.2. The trade balance swung from surplus to deficit

The EU's trade balance in CN 85129090 shifted from a comfortable surplus of €263.8 million in 2015 to a marginal deficit of −€14.2 million in 2025, representing a 105.4% deterioration (General Overview). This swing is the combined result of rapid import growth and stagnating export performance to key extra-EU markets. The net import reliance indicator confirms this trajectory: while the EU remained a net exporter throughout the period, the margin shrank dramatically from −6.4% to −1.4% of apparent consumption (Autonomy & Vulnerability). In practical terms, the EU's self-sufficiency in this product category has meaningfully declined.

1.3. Germany dominates intra-EU flows but faces mounting import pressure

Among EU Member States, Germany is by far the largest actor in this market. It accounted for €258.3 million in imports from non-EU countries in 2025 (up 108.7% from 2015) and €434.0 million in exports (up 16.0%) (General Overview). Germany's export growth, while positive, pales in comparison to its import surge, mirroring the EU-wide pattern. Poland experienced the most dramatic import growth among reporting members (+284.5%, from €30.8 million to €118.3 million), suggesting the rapid expansion of automotive assembly operations sourcing components from outside the EU. On the export side, Spain stood out with a 199.0% increase (from €36.9 million to €110.4 million), overtaking several traditional exporters.

2. A geographic realignment: The rise of Serbia and Morocco, the resilience of China

2.1. Serbia emerged as the most dynamic bilateral partner

The most remarkable development in the 2015–2025 period is the explosive growth of Serbia as both an import and export partner. EU imports from Serbia surged by 517.7% (from €35.4 million to €218.8 million), while EU exports to Serbia grew by 241.9% (from €16.0 million to €54.6 million) (General Overview). This makes Serbia the second-largest source of EU imports in 2025, behind only China. The bilateral trade pattern—high import growth alongside strong export growth—is consistent with the development of integrated supply chains linking Serbian component plants to EU automotive assembly, likely facilitated by Serbia's EU candidate status and its proximity to major Central European production clusters. However, this relationship also exhibits the highest import volatility among top partners (coefficient of variation of 0.45), and a notable price shock was detected in 2017 (Volatility & Shocks).

2.2. Morocco consolidated its position as a key nearshoring hub

Morocco's trajectory mirrors Serbia's but is even more pronounced in percentage terms. EU imports from Morocco grew by 752.9% (from €5.3 million to €45.5 million), while EU exports to Morocco surged by 1,578.2% (from €3.2 million to €53.9 million) (General Overview). Morocco's rise reflects the country's broader strategy of becoming an automotive manufacturing hub for the European market, leveraging its proximity to the EU, free-trade agreements, and competitive labour costs. The exceptionally high export volatility to Morocco (CV of 0.58) suggests that these supply chains, while growing rapidly, remain relatively new and subject to adjustment (Volatility & Shocks).

2.3. China remained the dominant supplier, but EU exports to China declined

China was and remains the EU's largest single source of imports in this category, with flows growing by 103.7% (from €158.2 million to €322.3 million) (General Overview). In contrast, EU exports to China fell by 30.6% (from €151.8 million to €105.3 million), turning what was a near-balanced bilateral trade in 2015 into a significant deficit by 2025. This reversal likely reflects both China's growing domestic production capabilities and the increasing localization of supply chains serving the Chinese automotive market. Meanwhile, EU exports to the United States also declined by 29.1% (from €193.1 million to €137.0 million), and exports to the United Kingdom grew modestly at 19.3%—well below inflation over the decade. Türkiye stands out as a bright spot for EU exports, with flows more than doubling (+118.0%, from €35.3 million to €76.9 million).

2.4. Import concentration increased while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose by 30.6% (from 1,490 to 1,945), indicating growing concentration of EU import sources (Market Structure). This is driven by the disproportionate growth of China and Serbia as suppliers. Conversely, the export HHI fell by 39.0% (from 1,447 to 883), reflecting a deliberate or structural diversification of EU export destinations toward markets like Morocco, Türkiye, and Mexico. The divergence is noteworthy: the EU is becoming more dependent on a narrower set of import sources while spreading its export risk more broadly.

3. Deepening global integration: Trade intensity rises as Central Europe specializes

3.1. The EU's trade intensity in this product category increased sharply

The trade intensity ratio—the share of external trade relative to EU production—rose from 13.6% to 23.4% over the period, an increase of 72.6% (Autonomy & Vulnerability). This occurred even as EU production value surged by 140.0% (from €3.03 billion to €7.27 billion) (Market Structure). The combination of booming domestic production and surging imports indicates that the EU automotive sector has become significantly more integrated into global value chains over the past decade. Export propensity—the ratio of exports to production—also grew, from 10.1% to 13.9% (Autonomy & Vulnerability), but the import side intensified faster, confirming the structural shift toward sourcing more components from abroad.

3.2. Central and Eastern European countries displayed the strongest export specialization

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 2025 shows that the EU Member States most specialized in the export of CN 85129090 products are concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe (Market Structure):

These countries have become the EU's production hubs for automotive electrical components, benefiting from established automotive ecosystems (Czechia and Slovakia host major assembly plants for Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, and others), competitive labour costs, and deep integration into German-led supply chains. At the opposite end, Cyprus, Ireland, Malta, Greece, and Portugal show no meaningful specialization in this category, with RCA values near zero.

3.3. Volatility reveals the risks of supply chain reconfiguration

The coefficient of variation (CV) across trading partners reveals significant volatility in several bilateral relationships. On the import side, the United Kingdom (0.49), Mexico (0.46), Serbia (0.45), and Thailand (0.44) exhibited the highest instability (Volatility & Shocks). On the export side, Morocco (0.58) and Russia (0.50) were the most volatile—both reflecting disruptions (Russia likely due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions post-2022; Morocco due to the nascent and rapidly scaling nature of its supply chains). Three significant price shocks were detected: a 2017 shock in EU imports from Serbia (abnormality score of 16.6, with import prices shifting by 13.4%), a 2017 shock in imports from Türkiye (abnormality 5.3, price shift 40.7%), and a 2018 shock in EU exports to the United Kingdom (abnormality 3.3, price shift 25.1%) (Volatility & Shocks). The 2018 UK shock likely relates to currency movements and early Brexit-related supply chain adjustments.

Conclusion

The EU market for automotive electrical parts (CN 85129090) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU's trade surplus was eroded and nearly eliminated, as imports grew at roughly four times the rate of exports. This was driven by the near-doubling of imports from China and the extraordinary emergence of Serbia and Morocco as major supply partners—reflecting broader trends of nearshoring and supply chain reconfiguration in the European automotive sector. Paradoxically, EU domestic production more than doubled in value over the same period, indicating that the import surge is not a sign of deindustrialization but rather of deeper integration into global value chains.

The geographic concentration of imports has increased, raising potential vulnerability concerns, while export markets have diversified. Central European Member States—particularly Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria—have cemented their role as the EU's specialized production base for these components. Looking ahead, the key risks lie in the volatility of emerging supply relationships (Serbia, Morocco) and the continued decline in EU export competitiveness vis-à-vis China. The data suggests that the EU automotive parts industry is increasingly a two-speed system: a highly productive and export-oriented Central European core integrated into German-led value chains, and a broader EU market that is becoming more dependent on external suppliers for an expanding range of components.