Market evolution: Automotive lighting equipment (CN 851220) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in electrical lighting and visual signalling equipment for motor vehicles (Customs Code 851220) over the period 2015–2025. The product falls under the broader category of electrical machinery and is a critical component for the automotive industry. The analysis is based on trade flow data (imports, exports, and trade balance) between the EU and non-EU countries. It aims to describe key trends, identify significant market shifts, and interpret the main dynamics observed in the data. The period covered includes notable global events that have impacted supply chains and trade patterns.

1. Erosion of the EU's Positive Trade Balance Amidst Soaring Import Demand

Over the decade, the EU's trade in automotive lighting equipment expanded significantly in value terms. However, this expansion was heavily driven by imports, leading to a substantial erosion of the historically strong trade surplus. The General Overview shows the EU's trade balance for CN 851220 contracted from €1.31 billion in 2015 to €0.80 billion in 2025, a decline of 39.1%.

Import growth outpaced export growth

The value of EU imports surged by 143.6% between 2015 and 2025, reaching €2.25 billion. This growth rate was significantly higher than the 36.5% increase in exports over the same period, which stood at €3.05 billion in 2025. While the EU remains a net exporter, its import dependency has grown markedly.

Price increases and volume shifts contributed to the balance change

The evolution was influenced by both price and volume dynamics. Export volumes decreased by 12.3% (from 55,827 to 48,971 tonnes), while export prices rose by 55.7%. Conversely, import volumes increased by 52.1% (from 49,012 to 74,558 tonnes), accompanied by a 60.2% rise in import prices. This suggests the EU is sourcing more automotive lighting equipment from abroad, at higher unit costs, while its own export volumes have contracted despite higher valuations.

2. Geographic Diversification of Imports and the Meteoric Rise of New Suppliers

The period saw a dramatic reshaping of the EU's import sources. Traditional suppliers maintained their positions, but new partners, particularly Morocco, experienced explosive growth, fundamentally altering the geographic concentration of imports.

The EU's import structure became less concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration, a measure of market diversity, decreased by 38.7% from 1758 in 2015 to 1078 in 2025. This indicates a move towards a less concentrated and more diversified import base, reducing reliance on a few dominant suppliers.

Morocco emerged as a major and volatile import source

The most striking change was the surge in imports from Morocco. Starting from a negligible €2.1 million in 2015, they exploded to €225.9 million in 2025—a staggering increase of over 10,000%. Morocco is now the EU's fifth-largest import partner. However, the volatility analysis shows this relationship is highly unstable, with the highest coefficient of variation (0.75) among top partners. Imports from China and Türkiye also more than doubled, with growth rates of 237.9% and 129.1%, respectively.

Table 1: Evolution of EU Imports by Top Partners (Value, EUR millions)

3. Increased Trade Openness Amidst Geopolitical and Economic Shocks

The EU's automotive lighting sector became more integrated into global trade flows, but this integration was tested by significant supply and demand shocks. Key indicators show increased trade openness, while specific partnership dynamics reveal vulnerability to external events.

Trade intensity and export propensity reached new highs

The EU's trade intensity for this product (total trade as a share of production) grew from 55.8% to 70.0%, and its export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 47.0% to 58.6%. This indicates a sector more dependent on both international markets for sales and foreign sources for inputs.

Distinct shocks impacted major trade corridors

Analysis of shock events highlights specific disruptions:

1. China Import Price Shock (2022): EU imports from China experienced a pronounced price shock in 2022, with an abnormality score of 6.0 and a 21.4% price shift. This reflects broader global supply chain pressures and cost inflation during that period.
2. UK Export Price Shock (2023): A significant price shock in exports to the United Kingdom occurred in 2023 (abnormality 4.5, +23.0% shift). This coincides with post-Brexit trade adjustments and may reflect changes in logistics or sourcing patterns.
3. Russia Export Supply Collapse (2025): The most dramatic shock was the near-total cessation of exports to Russia, which collapsed by 99.0% in 2025. This is a direct consequence of the sanctions regime following the invasion of Ukraine, representing a complete supply disruption for this corridor.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for automotive lighting equipment underwent significant transformation. While the EU maintained a positive trade balance, its position was significantly weakened by a surge in imports that far outpaced export growth. The import landscape diversified considerably, with Morocco emerging as a major but volatile new supplier. Concurrently, the EU's own sector showed deeper integration into the global economy, evidenced by rising trade intensity and export propensity. However, this openness also exposed the market to distinct geopolitical and economic shocks, most notably the complete decoupling from the Russian market and price volatility in key partnerships like China. These dynamics suggest a market adapting to new supply realities while navigating increased global uncertainty.