Market evolution: Unwrought manganese powders (CN 81110011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in unwrought manganese and manganese powders (customs code 81110011) over the period 2015–2025. Manganese is a critical base metal used primarily in steelmaking and increasingly in battery technologies. The product scope encompasses unwrought manganese in various forms, including powders, corresponding to PRODCOM code 24.45.30.85.

Over the decade under review, the EU's manganese market underwent significant structural transformation. Total imports grew in both value and volume, while exports contracted sharply. The bloc's net import reliance rose from approximately 68% to 91%, driven by a collapse in domestic production and a consolidation around a small number of external suppliers. The following sections examine these dynamics in detail.

1. The EU's Growing Import Dependency Amid Declining Domestic Production

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the simultaneous growth of EU imports and the erosion of domestic manganese production capacity.

Import volumes and values expanded significantly

Over the decade, EU imports of unwrought manganese grew from 92,313 tonnes and €163 million in the first year of the period to 109,775 tonnes and €197 million in the last — an increase of 18.9% in volume and 20.4% in value. The import price remained broadly stable, fluctuating around €1,700–1,800 per tonne on average, though with a notable peak reaching €4,056/t at one point during the period.

Source: General trade overview

Domestic production collapsed

The EU's own production of manganese declined dramatically. Output fell from 2,128,620 kg (approximately 2,129 tonnes) to 800,000 kg (800 tonnes), a contraction of 62.4%. In value terms, the decline was even more severe — from €100 million to just €20 million, representing an 80% decrease. This collapse suggests the closure or mothballing of significant EU-based manganese processing capacity during this period.

Net import reliance surged to over 90%

As a direct consequence of rising imports and falling domestic output, the EU's net import reliance climbed from 68.0% to 91.1% — a 34% increase. At its peak, this indicator reached 92.4%, meaning that virtually all manganese consumed in the EU originated from outside the bloc. Trade intensity also rose from 76.1% to 96.2%, confirming that manganese trade became almost entirely oriented towards external supply.

Export volumes halved

On the export side, EU outbound shipments of unwrought manganese contracted sharply. Export volumes fell from 8,018 tonnes to 4,384 tonnes (−45.3%), and export values dropped from €18 million to approximately €10 million (−45.1%). The export unit value remained broadly stable at around €2,250/t, indicating the decline was primarily a volume phenomenon rather than a pricing one. The resulting trade deficit widened from €145 million to €187 million, with the worst year recording a deficit of €488 million.

2. China's Dominance and the Diversification of Import Sources

The EU's manganese import market was structurally reshaped during 2015–2025, with China consolidating its position as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier while several smaller origins experienced volatile trajectories.

China captured the lion's share of EU imports

China's share of EU manganese imports grew from €147 million to €180 million (+22.8%), with a peak of €455 million in an intermediate year. China consistently supplied the vast majority of EU manganese, and the import concentration index (HHI) for imports stood at approximately 8,138 at the start of the period and ended at 8,441 — values indicating a highly concentrated market. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated; values above 8,000 signal extreme dependence on a single source.

Source: Top import partners

Alternative suppliers emerged but remain marginal

Despite the dominance of China, some diversification occurred at the margin. Indonesia emerged as a notable new supplier, growing from negligible levels to €7.8 million. Ukraine similarly expanded its presence, rising from €329K to €7.7 million. These developments may reflect the EU's efforts to diversify critical raw material supply chains, though their combined share remains far below China's.

Traditional African suppliers declined sharply

Several historically important suppliers saw steep declines. Gabon, once a significant source, collapsed from €1.4 million to just €4,447 (−99.7%). South Africa's exports to the EU fell by 36%, from €12.3 million to €7.9 million. The United Kingdom and Hong Kong, which were modest suppliers in 2015, saw their flows virtually disappear. The volatility of these smaller suppliers is also notable: Gabon showed a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.84, Ukraine 1.16, and Hong Kong 1.15, indicating highly erratic supply patterns from these origins.

EU export markets also shifted

On the export side, the EU's top destinations were the United Kingdom, the United States, and Norway. However, most saw declines: UK-bound exports fell 68.7% to €1.2 million, Canada-bound exports dropped 44.3% to €1.9 million. One notable exception was Russia, which saw EU manganese exports surge from €183K to €1.4 million (+673.4%), potentially reflecting pre-sanctions trade flows or re-routing patterns. The export HHI increased from 1,359 to 1,726, indicating that EU exports also became more concentrated over time.

Intra-EU trade concentrated in the Netherlands

Within the EU, Netherlands dominated manganese imports, accounting for €162 million in the final period — more than 80% of total EU imports. This reflects the Netherlands' role as a major transhipment and distribution hub for raw materials entering Europe via Rotterdam. Other importing member states included Spain (€9.8M), Sweden (€5.7M), and Germany (€8.0M), though their shares were far smaller. Belgium's import role collapsed from €9.6M to just €186K, while Slovenia grew from €44K to €674K, illustrating intra-EU redistribution shifts.

3. Market Vulnerability and the Price Shock of 2021

The period 2015–2025 was not simply one of steady growth in dependency; it was punctuated by significant shocks and growing structural vulnerabilities.

The 2021 price shock affected multiple export flows

The most significant price shock event detected during the period occurred in 2021, affecting EU exports to several partners. Exports to Türkiye saw an abnormality score of 14.7 with a price shift of +84.9%, exports to Canada showed an abnormality of 10.1 with a +81.4% shift, and exports to Brazil recorded an abnormality of 4.5 with a +104.1% price increase. These extreme price movements in 2021 are consistent with the broader commodity price surge observed globally in the wake of post-COVID demand recovery and supply chain disruptions, compounded by energy cost inflation in Europe.

Supply volatility varied widely across partners

The coefficient of variation analysis reveals that certain import sources were far more volatile than others. China, the dominant supplier, showed the lowest CV (0.12), reflecting its relatively stable supply base. By contrast, Ukraine (CV 1.16), Hong Kong (CV 1.15), and South Korea (CV 2.13) displayed highly erratic trade patterns. This volatility data underscores a key paradox: while the EU has attempted to diversify away from China, the alternative suppliers it has engaged with have proven far less reliable in their delivery volumes.

The Netherlands' export propensity surged — a warning signal

The EU's export propensity — the share of production that is exported rather than consumed domestically — jumped from 20.5% to 55.6%. This is a counterintuitive finding given the decline in production: it means that a growing share of the EU's diminished manganese output is being exported rather than retained for domestic use. This could reflect the re-export of imported and minimally processed material, or it may indicate that remaining EU producers are increasingly oriented towards higher-margin export markets, potentially at the expense of European industrial users.

Concentration indicators confirm structural vulnerability

The HHI analysis for imports remained in the "very highly concentrated" range throughout the period, barely moving from 8,138 to 8,441. On the export side, concentration increased from 1,359 to 1,726 (+27.1%). In terms of specialisation, the Netherlands stood out as the only EU member state with a positive Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score of 0.71, confirming its role as a manganese re-export hub. All other major member states showed negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers with no comparative advantage in manganese.

Conclusion

The EU's unwrought manganese market underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production collapsed by over 60% in volume and 80% in value, while imports grew by nearly 20%. The bloc's net import reliance surged to over 91%, making it almost entirely dependent on external suppliers for this critical industrial input.

China's dominance as the primary supplier intensified, with an import HHI consistently above 8,000 — an exceptionally high concentration level that poses significant supply chain risks. While new suppliers such as Indonesia and Ukraine have emerged, their contributions remain modest relative to China's share, and their supply patterns have proven far more volatile.

The price shocks of 2021 demonstrated the EU's exposure to global commodity market disruptions. Combined with the rising export propensity of the remaining domestic production, these trends suggest that European industrial users of manganese face an increasingly constrained and fragile supply environment. Policymakers concerned with critical raw materials security should note that the trends identified here align with broader concerns about the EU's dependency on a small number of external sources for strategically important metals.