Market evolution: Threaded fasteners (CN 731819) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in threaded articles of iron or steel not elsewhere specified (CN 731819) over the period 2015–2025. As a residual category within heading 7318 (screws, bolts, nuts and similar articles), CN 731819 captures a wide range of specialised threaded fasteners that do not fall into the more narrowly defined subheadings such as coach screws, self-tapping screws, or nuts.

Over the decade, EU trade in this product line has undergone significant structural change. While both import and export values have risen substantially, the underlying dynamics — diverging unit prices, shifting geographic partners, collapsing physical production volumes, and rising trade openness — tell a story of an EU industry that is increasingly specialised in higher-value segments while becoming more exposed to global competition in commodity-grade products.

The analysis draws on data from the Trade Dashboard — Overview, covering EU extra-trade flows over the full 2015–2025 period.

A Tale of Two Prices: Diverging Unit Values Between EU Exports and Imports

EU export values rose while volumes fell, signalling a move upmarket

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 731819 grew by 56.2% in value (from €307 million to €480 million), yet physical export volumes actually declined by 8.8% (from 34,992 to 31,905 tonnes). The resolution of this apparent paradox lies in unit values: the average export price surged by 71.3%, rising from €8,767/t to €15,015/t — its highest point in the series at €15,123/t in 2024.

This pattern is consistent with EU manufacturers progressively shifting towards higher-precision, higher-value-added threaded articles — likely serving aerospace, automotive, and industrial machinery sectors — while ceding commodity-grade volumes to lower-cost producers.

Import volumes grew strongly, but at much lower unit prices

In contrast, EU import volumes rose by 29.6% (from 75,377 to 97,685 tonnes), while import values increased by 41.9% (from €348 million to €494 million). The average import price edged up only 9.5%, from €4,617/t to €5,058/t, peaking at €5,361/t. The modest price increase on the import side reflects the availability of lower-cost production capacity in Asia and Türkiye.

Source: EU trade overview

The price gap tripled in relative terms

In 2015, EU export unit values were roughly 1.9 times the import unit value. By 2025, this ratio had widened to approximately 3.0 times. This widening gap is a strong indicator of a dual market: the EU imports large volumes of standard, lower-specification threaded articles while exporting smaller volumes of highly engineered, premium products. The trade balance consequently improved from −€41 million in 2015 to −€15 million in 2025, and even briefly turned positive (peaking at +€4.5 million), driven by the rapid appreciation of export prices.

Shifting Geographies: China's Import Dominance, Russia's Collapse, and New Export Frontiers

China consolidated its position as the EU's primary import supplier

China's share of EU imports of CN 731819 grew dramatically over the period. Import values from China rose by 94.6%, from €99 million in 2015 to €192 million in 2025, having peaked at €239 million in 2022. This surge reflects both volume growth and a period of elevated prices in 2021–2022 (likely linked to post-pandemic supply chain pressures and energy costs).

Other Asian suppliers also expanded their presence:

Source: Top partners

India (+135.8%) and Türkiye (+99.7%) stand out as rapidly growing suppliers, consistent with a broader trend of supply chain diversification away from sole reliance on Chinese production. Meanwhile, imports from the UK fell by 11.8%, likely reflecting post-Brexit trade friction.

EU import sourcing became more concentrated despite diversification efforts

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,609 to 2,065 (+28.4%), indicating that import supply became more concentrated over the period — even as new suppliers like India and Türkiye gained ground. The dominant role of China, whose import share nearly doubled, was the primary driver of this increased concentration. By volume, concentration rose even more sharply (HHI from 3,722 to 5,821, +56.4%), suggesting that China's volume growth outpaced that of all other suppliers combined.

EU export markets diversified, but Russia collapsed

On the export side, the EU's top destination remained the United States (€65 million in 2025, +46.9%), followed by China (€52 million, +31.0%) and the United Kingdom (€53 million, +17.6%). Notably, exports to Türkiye more than doubled (+114.3%) and exports to Mexico surged by 136.4%.

The most dramatic shift was the collapse of exports to Russia: from €14 million in 2015 to just €4 million in 2025 (−70.4%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Source: Top partners

Export concentration by value decreased (HHI from 760 to 649, −14.6%), confirming that the EU's export base became more geographically diversified, partially offsetting the loss of the Russian market.

Trade flows showed varying degrees of volatility across partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) for import flows reveals that the United Kingdom was the most volatile EU import source (CV = 0.575), followed by Japan (0.559) and Brazil (0.483) — all relatively small suppliers whose trade volumes fluctuated significantly. Among major partners, India showed the highest import volatility (CV = 0.256), while China was the most stable large supplier (CV = 0.187). On the export side, Russia was the most volatile destination (CV = 0.446), unsurprisingly given the sanctions-driven disruption.

Source: Volatility bars

A Sector in Transformation: Shrinking Volumes, Surging Values, and Growing Openness

EU physical production volumes fell sharply while production values soared

Perhaps the most striking structural development is the divergence between EU production volumes and values. Over the available period, EU production of CN 731819 articles fell by 41.8% in volume (from 409 million kg to 238 million kg), while the production value rose by 64.2% (from €728 million to €1,195 million). This implies that the average production value per kilogram roughly tripled — from approximately €1.78/kg to approximately €5.02/kg. This evolution points to a fundamental restructuring: EU manufacturers are producing fewer but more sophisticated and valuable threaded articles, exiting commodity segments where Asian producers hold a cost advantage.

Germany is the linchpin of the EU's threaded fastener industry

Germany dominated both trade flows and production. In 2025, Germany accounted for:

• 45.7% of EU extra-EU export value (€219 million, +66.6% vs. 2015)
• 24.8% of EU extra-EU import value (€122 million, +66.4%)
• 34.1% of EU production volume, according to the specialisation data

Germany's revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.234 confirms its specialisation in this product, though smaller member states showed even higher relative specialisation: Bulgaria (RSCA = 0.607), Austria (0.420), and Ireland (0.307). Italy also emerged as a major exporter, more than doubling its export value (+111.7% to €62 million), reflecting the strength of Italy's fastener cluster (particularly in the Lombardy region).

Source: Top reporters

Austria's export decline (−42.2%) is a notable exception and may reflect production reallocation within corporate groups or the impact of energy cost pressures on its steel-processing industry.

The EU's net import reliance nearly vanished

The net import reliance indicator — which measures the share of apparent consumption met by net imports — fell from 7.0% in 2015 to just 0.6% in 2025, having briefly dipped into negative territory (i.e., a small net export surplus) during the period. This near-elimination of net import dependency is remarkable given that import volumes actually grew: it was driven by the even faster growth of EU export values relative to import values, thanks to the premium pricing of EU exports.

Trade openness intensified dramatically

Despite the improving trade balance, the EU became far more intertwined with global markets in this product. Trade intensity (the ratio of extra-EU trade to production value) more than doubled from 28.0% to 58.6%. Export propensity (the ratio of extra-EU exports to production value) tripled from 13.1% to 41.3%. These are the two most salient structural shifts in the dataset, indicating that the EU's threaded fastener sector has become substantially more export-oriented and globally integrated over the decade.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in threaded articles (CN 731819) over 2015–2025 reveals a sector undergoing profound structural transformation. While headline trade values grew on both the import and export sides, the underlying story is one of diverging specialisation: EU producers have moved decisively towards higher-value, more specialised products — evidenced by the 71% rise in export unit prices and the 42% collapse in physical production volumes — while import competition has intensified in the commodity segment, driven primarily by China but increasingly also by India and Türkiye.

The EU's trade balance in this product improved substantially, and net import reliance fell to near zero. However, this apparent resilience masks a growing dependence on global value chains: trade intensity doubled to nearly 60% of production value, meaning that any disruption to either export markets or import supply chains would now have a proportionally larger impact on the EU industry than it would have a decade ago. The continued rise of China's import share — and the corresponding increase in import concentration (HHI from 1,609 to 2,065) — remains a key vulnerability, even as the EU's own export base has become more geographically diversified.