Market evolution: Iron and steel threaded bolts (CN 731815) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of combined nomenclature code 731815 — threaded screws and bolts of iron or steel — for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The product group covers a broad range of fasteners, from hexagon bolts to socket-head screws, and is a critical input for automotive, construction, machinery, and infrastructure industries. The data reveals a market that has undergone significant structural shifts: while total trade values have grown substantially, the underlying drivers differ markedly between imports and exports. The EU remains a net exporter in value terms, but its import profile has changed dramatically in terms of sourcing geography and price dynamics. Three main findings structure this report: the dominant role of unit prices in driving trade value growth, the radical reorientation of import sourcing toward China and emerging producers, and the EU's increasingly specialised position built on high-value-added product segments.
Price over volume: How unit-value inflation reshaped EU trade
Export values grew four times faster than export volumes
The most striking feature of EU external trade in CN 731815 over the decade is the near-decoupling of value growth from volume growth on the export side. Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports to non-EU countries rose from €1.85 billion to €2.62 billion in value (+41.8%), while exported tonnage edged up from 316,003 t to only 321,229 t (+1.7%). The average export unit price therefore climbed from €5,842/t to €8,146/t (+39.4%), meaning that virtually all of the nominal export expansion was driven by higher prices rather than larger physical quantities.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€ bn) | 1.85 | 2.62 | +41.8 % |
| Export volume (kt) | 316.0 | 321.2 | +1.7 % |
| Export unit price (€/t) | 5,842 | 8,146 | +39.4 % |
| Import value (€ bn) | 1.83 | 2.56 | +39.8 % |
| Import volume (kt) | 636.9 | 857.5 | +34.6 % |
| Import unit price (€/t) | 2,873 | 2,982 | +3.8 % |
Import volumes rose much more steeply, but at broadly flat prices
Imports told a different story. Over the same period, import value grew by 39.8% (from €1.83 billion to €2.56 billion), but imported tonnage surged by 34.6% (from 636,879 t to 857,518 t). The import unit price therefore rose only 3.8%, from €2,873/t to €2,982/t. This stands in stark contrast to the export side: the EU was absorbing substantially more physical product from abroad while keeping average import prices nearly stable, suggesting that new supply sources — particularly from Asia — exerted sustained downward pressure on import prices.
The 2020–2022 cycle: COVID dip, steel-price spike, and partial normalisation
The year 2020 marked the cycle trough. EU imports fell to €1.78 billion (the minimum of the series), reflecting pandemic-related demand destruction and supply-chain disruptions. A sharp recovery followed in 2021–2022, driven by post-pandemic restocking and surging global steel prices. In 2022, import value peaked at €3.15 billion — the maximum of the entire series — and import unit prices hit €3,367/t. The price shock was especially visible in imports from Thailand, where the average import price jumped 31.2% in 2022 with an abnormality score of 4.1, the most extreme price event detected in the dataset. By 2024–2025, both import values and unit prices had partially retraced, settling at €2.56 billion and €2,982/t respectively, suggesting that the steel-price supercycle had largely passed through.
The China surge and the geographic reorientation of EU imports
China became the EU's dominant import source by value
The single most dramatic shift in the import landscape was the explosive growth of Chinese shipments. EU imports from China rose from €144 million in 2015 to €622 million in 2025, a +331% increase — by far the largest proportional gain among all partners. At their peak in 2022, Chinese imports reached €826 million. In volume terms, China's share of total EU imports grew correspondingly fast, with the concentration index (HHI) for import volumes rising by 78.5% over the decade (from 1,152 to 2,057), reflecting the growing dominance of a single supplier.
| Import partner | 2015 (€ m) | 2025 (€ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 144 | 622 | +331 % |
| Taiwan | 328 | 346 | +5.5 % |
| Türkiye | 104 | 266 | +156 % |
| India | 172 | 173 | +1.0 % |
| Korea, Republic of | 84 | 109 | +29.7 % |
| Viet Nam | 85 | 128 | +51.3 % |
| Thailand | 65 | 88 | +34.1 % |
Traditional Asian suppliers held volume but lost relative weight
Taiwan, India, and Korea — all established fastener exporters — saw modest value changes over the period. Taiwan's imports grew by only 5.5% (to €346 million), India's were essentially flat (€173 million), and Korea rose by 30% (to €109 million). In effect, these partners maintained their absolute positions but lost significant market share to China. The combined result was a notable rise in import concentration: the value-based HHI increased from 952 to 1,182 (+24.2%), indicating that import sourcing became meaningfully less diversified over the decade.
Türkiye emerged as a dual-role partner
Türkiye stands out as a partner that grew in both directions. On the import side, shipments to the EU grew from €104 million to €266 million (+156%). On the export side, EU exports to Türkiye rose from €86 million to €149 million (+72.8%). This bilateral intensification likely reflects both Türkiye's growing fastener manufacturing capacity and its role as a logistics bridge between Asian and European supply chains.
The United States became the EU's largest export market
On the export side, the most significant development was the near-doubling of EU shipments to the United States, which grew from €294 million to €551 million (+87.4%) — making the US the EU's single largest non-EU export destination by 2025. EU exports to Mexico also more than doubled (+125.1%), and those to Brazil grew by 61.0%. Together, these three markets suggest a strong EU positioning in the Americas, likely serving automotive and industrial OEM demand. Meanwhile, exports to the United Kingdom — the second-largest destination — grew more moderately (from €268 million to €309 million, +15.3%), possibly reflecting post-Brexit trade friction effects.
| Export partner | 2015 (€ m) | 2025 (€ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 294 | 551 | +87.4 % |
| United Kingdom | 268 | 309 | +15.3 % |
| China | 372 | 335 | −10.0 % |
| Türkiye | 86 | 149 | +72.8 % |
| Mexico | 61 | 137 | +125.1 % |
| Brazil | 74 | 119 | +61.0 % |
| Switzerland | 104 | 136 | +30.0 % |
Export concentration declined, reflecting geographic diversification
In contrast to the import side, export concentration fell over the period. The value-based HHI for exports decreased from 1,006 to 906 (−9.9%), and the volume-based HHI dropped from 1,024 to 929 (−9.3%). This indicates that EU exporters successfully diversified their destination markets, reducing dependence on any single partner.
A two-tier market: The EU's value-added specialisation
Unit-price differentials reveal structural product differentiation
A defining feature of EU trade in CN 731815 is the persistent and large gap between export and import unit prices. In 2025, the average export unit price stood at €8,146/t, while the average import unit price was €2,982/t — a ratio of roughly 2.7:1. This differential held throughout the decade (ranging from about 2.0:1 to 2.7:1) and strongly suggests that the EU specialises in higher-grade, more technically demanding fastener segments (e.g., high-tensile hexagon bolts, stainless-steel socket-head screws) while importing larger volumes of standard-grade products at lower unit values.
Sub-product data confirms the specialisation pattern
The breakdown by eight-digit sub-product codes makes this pattern explicit. On the import side, the largest categories by volume are:
- 73181588 (hexagon bolts, non-stainless, ≥800 MPa): 285,854 t in 2025, at €1,905/t
- 73181595 (other headed screws/bolts): 132,706 t, at €5,830/t
- 73181542 (without heads, <800 MPa): 81,599 t, at €1,209/t
On the export side, the leading categories were:
- 73181595 (other headed screws/bolts): 128,703 t, at €8,759/t
- 73181588 (hexagon bolts, ≥800 MPa): 112,603 t, at €5,503/t
- 73181548 (without heads, ≥800 MPa): 19,581 t, at €8,678/t
Several observations stand out. First, the EU imports far more of the lower-value, high-volume segments (73181542 at €1,209/t, 73181588 at €1,905/t) than it exports. Second, in the categories where the EU does export significant volumes, unit prices are consistently 2–4 times higher than the corresponding import prices. For instance, hexagon bolts ≥800 MPa (73181588) are imported at €1,905/t but exported at €5,503/t; without-heads ≥800 MPa (73181548) are imported at €2,094/t but exported at €8,678/t. This confirms that the EU occupies the higher-value end of the fastener market, likely serving customers requiring tighter tolerances, certified mechanical properties, and traceability.
Italy and Germany anchor the EU's export specialisation
Within the EU, the production and export of CN 731815 products is concentrated in a handful of member states. In 2025, Italy held the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.44, RCA of 2.58) and accounted for 20.7% of EU production in this product group. Germany, with an RSCA of 0.22 and RCA of 1.58, contributed 33.4% of EU production — by far the largest absolute share — and dominated exports at €1.23 billion in 2025. France (RCA 1.26), Slovakia (RCA 1.47), and to a lesser extent Spain (RCA 0.98) also showed meaningful specialisation. At the other end, countries such as Cyprus, Ireland, and Malta had negligible production and negative RSCA values, confirming that this industry is geographically concentrated in the EU's traditional manufacturing heartland.
The EU maintained net exporter status and increased trade openness
Throughout the period, the EU's net import reliance remained negative — meaning the EU was a net exporter in value terms. The ratio started at −2.8% in 2015, swung to a maximum of +11.5% in 2020 (the only year of net import dependence, driven by the pandemic-induced export collapse), then returned to −4.3% in 2025. Over the same period, trade intensity rose dramatically from 9.6% to 63.4%, and export propensity increased from 6.3% to 47.5%. These very large increases likely reflect a combination of improved reporting coverage and genuine deepening of the EU's integration into global fastener value chains.
Conclusion
The EU trade in threaded iron and steel fasteners (CN 731815) over 2015–2025 was shaped by three converging dynamics. First, price rather than volume drove the bulk of trade-value growth: export prices rose by 39% while volumes barely moved, and import volumes grew by 35% at near-flat prices, widening the already large unit-price gap between the two flows. Second, the import side underwent a dramatic geographic reorientation, with China more than quadrupling its shipments to the EU and driving a significant rise in import concentration — a trend that carries potential vulnerability implications should trade policy or supply conditions shift. Third, the EU consolidated its position as a specialised, high-value exporter, anchored by Germany and Italy, serving demanding industrial customers in the Americas and Europe while importing larger volumes of standard-grade fasteners from Asia.
The net result is a two-tier market: the EU absorbs bulk tonnage at commodity prices and sells smaller but far more valuable volumes of precision-engineered fasteners. The 2020 pandemic shock briefly turned the EU into a net importer, but by 2025 the traditional surplus in value terms had been restored. Going forward, the rising concentration of imports and the continued price sensitivity of the market — as demonstrated by the 2022 steel-price episode — suggest that supply-diversification and value-chain resilience will remain central concerns for EU policymakers and industry alike.