Market evolution: Non-threaded fasteners (CN 731829) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's trade in non-threaded articles of iron or steel (customs code 731829) with non-EU countries over the period 2015 to 2025. The EU market for these products, which include items like rivets, washers, and cotters, has undergone significant structural shifts. Key trends include a substantial increase in import volumes and values, a reorientation of trade partnerships, and a change in the EU's overall trade position from a slight surplus to a deficit. The report will examine these dynamics in three parts.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Import Surge

The decade was characterized by a notable divergence in the trajectories of EU imports and exports. While both grew in value, import volumes expanded dramatically faster, fundamentally altering the trade balance.

Import volumes grew significantly, outpacing export volumes

Between the first and last year of the period, EU imports of CN 731829 in quantity increased by 42.3%, rising from 41,919 tonnes to 59,657 tonnes. In contrast, export volumes decreased by 13.6% over the same timeframe, falling from 36,297 tonnes to 31,365 tonnes. This divergence in volume trends is the primary driver of the changing trade balance.

Export values rose due to higher unit prices, masking volume declines

Despite falling in volume, EU export values grew by 35.0%, from €427 million to €577 million. This was entirely due to a 56.1% increase in the average export price (from €11,767 to €18,373 per tonne), suggesting a shift towards higher-value or specialized products in the EU's export basket. Conversely, import values rose by 40.0% to €590 million, driven by the volume increase as import prices actually fell slightly by 1.6%.

The trade balance shifted from surplus to deficit

The combined effect of these trends was a decisive shift in the EU's net trade position. In 2015, the EU had a modest trade surplus of €5.5 million. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of -€13.5 million. The deficit peaked at -€82.4 million in 2020, indicating the structural shift occurred mid-decade.

2. Shifting Trade Partners and Diverging Dynamics

The growth in trade was not uniform across partners. A clear pattern emerged, with certain Asian economies driving import growth, while key traditional partners for exports saw mixed performance.

China became the dominant source of imports

China's role as a supplier to the EU market expanded massively. Imports from China grew by 128% in value, reaching €96 million by 2025. This made China the top supplier, overtaking traditional partners like Switzerland. Other Asian suppliers, notably Taiwan and India, also saw strong import growth (+46% and +73% respectively).

Export markets consolidated around the US and emerging economies

Exports to the United States grew by 41% to €89 million, solidifying its position as the top destination. The most dramatic growth, however, was in exports to Mexico (+103%) and Brazil (+50%), indicating successful market diversification.

Trade with the United Kingdom weakened, especially post-Brexit

The United Kingdom presents a contrasting case. As a source of imports, its value grew by 26%, but it lost market share to Asian suppliers. More significantly, EU exports to the UK fell by 32% from €54 million to €37 million, suggesting a notable decoupling following Brexit.

3. Structural Shifts and Strategic Vulnerabilities

Beyond the headline trade figures, the data reveals deeper changes in the EU's competitive position and supply chain resilience.

The EU remains a net exporter in value terms, with a rising export propensity

Despite the growing import volume, the EU's high-value exports kept it as a net exporter in monetary terms. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) surged from 66% to 250%, indicating that EU production became increasingly oriented towards foreign markets. This was supported by strong specialization in core manufacturing nations like Germany and Austria.

The import market is diversifying, but concentration risks remain

While the concentration of EU imports by value (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) decreased from 1652 to 1342, signaling diversification, the share from China grew substantially. This creates a potential single-point-of-failure risk. Export markets also became slightly less concentrated.

Domestic production faced pressure from low-cost imports

EU production volumes for CN 731829 declined slightly by 3.4% over the period, while production value rose by 29.3%. This aligns with the trade trends: lower-value, higher-volume production likely moved abroad (notably to China), while EU domestic output shifted towards higher-margin, specialized articles for export.

Conclusion

The EU market for non-threaded iron or steel articles evolved significantly from 2015 to 2025. It transformed from a balanced market into one characterized by high import penetration for standard goods and high-value, specialized exports. The key dynamics were the surge in imports from China, which fueled a shift to a trade deficit by volume; the pivot of export markets towards the Americas and away from the UK; and a structural upgrade of EU production towards higher value-added activities. This indicates a deepening global specialization within the fastener industry, with the EU moving up the value chain. The primary vulnerability emerging from this period is increased dependence on a concentrated pool of Asian suppliers for imported volume, a risk that warrants strategic monitoring.