Market evolution: Synthetic knitwear (CN 611030) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's trade in synthetic knitwear (CN 611030) between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a decade of profound structural transformation, characterized by a stark divergence between a rapidly expanding import market and a declining export sector. The EU has become significantly more reliant on foreign suppliers for these goods, with a parallel collapse in domestic production. This shift has been accompanied by changes in sourcing geography and pronounced price volatility.

1. The Great Divergence: Import Boom Amid Export Stagnation

The period was defined by a dramatic and accelerating divergence in the performance of EU imports versus exports of synthetic knitwear.

Imports surged in both value and volume. The value of EU imports grew by 29.2% from €4.31 billion in 2015 to €5.58 billion in 2025, reaching a peak of €5.81 billion in 2022. More strikingly, the quantity imported in tonnes grew by 50.4%, from 244,307t to 367,421t. This indicates a massive increase in the physical volume of goods entering the EU market (General Overview).
Exports showed modest value growth but a decline in volume. EU export value increased by 17.2%, from €862 million to €1.01 billion. However, the quantity exported fell by 9.1%, from 24,419t to 22,197t. This suggests EU exporters may have focused on higher-value items, but the core volume of trade is contracting (General Overview).
The trade deficit widened dramatically. As a direct result of this divergence, the EU's trade deficit in this category deteriorated significantly. It worsened by 32.2%, growing from -€3.45 billion in 2015 to -€4.57 billion in 2025. This underscores the EU's growing consumption versus its production and export capabilities in this sector (General Overview).

2. A Structural Shift in Sourcing and Market Concentration

Behind the headline figures lies a fundamental restructuring of the EU's supply chains and competitive landscape.

Import sourcing shifted decisively towards Asia, increasing vulnerability. While China remained the largest supplier (€2.49 billion in 2025), the most dynamic growth came from other Asian nations. Imports from Bangladesh grew by 51.1% to €1.28 billion, Cambodia by 39.7% to €382 million, and Pakistan by 145.3% to €80 million. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom (post-Brexit) fell by 68.2%. This concentration in Asia is reflected in a high Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, though it did decrease slightly from 2831 to 2726, indicating a minor diversification (General Overview, Market Structure).
EU production collapsed, confirming the structural import dependency. The data for EU production (PRODCOM) tells a stark story. Production value plummeted by 74.9%, from €1.61 billion in 2015 to just €405 million in 2025. The quantity produced fell by an astonishing 88.5%. This collapse is the fundamental driver behind the soaring import reliance and the weakening trade balance (Market Structure).
Specialization patterns within the EU became more pronounced. Analysis of 2025 data shows Denmark, Spain, and Poland as the most specialized EU exporters of this product category (based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage). Meanwhile, countries like Malta, Ireland, and Finland showed very low specialization, indicating the industry has consolidated in specific Member States (Market Structure).

3. Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Shocks

The decade was not only about volume shifts but also marked by significant price instability and specific disruptive events.

Import and export prices moved in opposite directions. The average import price (EUR per tonne) fell by 14.1% over the period. In contrast, the average export price rose by 28.9%. This price divergence aligns with the trend of EU sourcing shifting towards lower-cost Asian producers for standard items, while EU exports may have concentrated on higher-priced, fashion-forward, or technically specialized garments (General Overview).
Trade flows exhibited high volatility, especially with newer partners. The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values was particularly high for suppliers like Myanmar (0.46) and Pakistan (0.39), indicating unstable trade relationships. On the export side, shipments to the United Kingdom (0.44) and Algeria (0.63) were highly volatile, likely influenced by geopolitical and regulatory factors like Brexit (Volatility & Shocks).
Specific supply-side price shocks were detected. Notably, a significant import price shock was identified for Bangladesh in 2022 (abnormality score: 17.6), coinciding with global supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs affecting its garment industry. A major export price shock was detected for shipments to Algeria in 2023, with an extreme abnormality score of 136.0, potentially linked to trade agreement changes or regulatory measures (Volatility & Shocks).

Conclusion

The EU market for synthetic knitwear (CN 611030) has undergone a fundamental restructuring between 2015 and 2025. The period is characterized by a profound and widening structural imbalance: domestic production has collapsed while import dependency has soared. The EU's sourcing has strategically shifted towards low-cost Asian producers, increasing efficiency but also heightening supply chain vulnerability, as evidenced by the high volatility of some newer trade partners and specific price shocks. The market is now a high-import, moderate-export system with a significant and growing trade deficit, reflecting a long-term trend of offshoring and specialization within the bloc. Future stability will depend on managing the risks associated with concentrated supply chains and navigating ongoing global trade uncertainties.