Market evolution: Cotton knitwear (CN 611020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in cotton knitted jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, and similar articles (Customs code 611020) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers three subcategories: lightweight fine-knit cotton garments (61102010), men's or boys' articles (61102091), and women's or girls' articles (61102099). Over the decade, the EU's position in this market underwent a structural transformation: domestic production collapsed, imports surged in volume while unit prices softened, sourcing shifted decisively away from China toward South and Southeast Asia, and EU exports doubled in value but diversified geographically. The trade deficit widened modestly to €3.4 billion, masking a dramatic reconfiguration of the supply chain.

1. The Great Sourcing Realignment: From China to Bangladesh and Beyond

1.1 China loses its dominance to Bangladesh

The most consequential shift in the EU's cotton knitwear imports over 2015–2025 was the overtaking of China by Bangladesh as the leading supplier. In 2015, China was the EU's top import origin at €1.24 billion, ahead of Bangladesh at €983 million. By 2025, Bangladesh had surged to €1.70 billion (+73.1%), while China had retreated to €912 million (−26.6%). Bangladesh now accounts for roughly one-third of extra-EU import value in this product. This reversal reflects the long-running structural shift of basic garment production from China — where rising labour costs and a strategic pivot toward higher-value manufacturing have reduced competitiveness in simple knitwear — toward Bangladesh, whose lower wage base and preferential trade access (the EU's Everything But Arms arrangement) have sustained rapid capacity expansion.

Source: EU imports by partner

1.2 Pakistan emerges as the fastest-growing supplier

While the China-to-Bangladesh narrative dominates, the most striking growth rate belongs to Pakistan, whose exports of cotton knitwear to the EU expanded from €127 million to €421 million (+231.5%). Pakistan benefits from a vertically integrated cotton textile industry — from raw cotton to finished garments — and competitive labour costs. The coefficient of variation for Pakistan-sourced imports is relatively high at 0.39, reflecting some year-on-year volatility, but the overall trajectory is unambiguously upward. Pakistan's rise underscores the EU's broader strategy of supplier diversification beyond any single Asian origin.

1.3 Brexit reshapes intra-European flows

One of the sharpest declines recorded in the dataset is the collapse of UK-to-EU imports of cotton knitwear, falling from €201 million in 2015 to just €46 million in 2025 (−77.0%). The UK had been a notable intra-EU supplier in 2015; its reclassification as an extra-EU partner after January 2021, combined with new customs frictions and rules-of-origin requirements, effectively disrupted these flows. The volatility of UK-origin imports is the highest of any partner (coefficient of variation: 0.80), reflecting the abruptness of this structural break. Conversely, the UK remained the EU's single largest extra-EU export destination at €269 million in 2025, though this too has declined from a 2015 peak, suggesting that post-Brexit trade friction has attenuated bilateral flows in both directions.

2. Collapsing Domestic Production and Surging Import Dependency

2.1 EU production of cotton knitwear falls by nearly 90%

The most dramatic structural indicator in the dataset is the collapse of EU domestic production. Reported production in items fell from 219 million pieces in 2015 to just 22.8 million in 2025 (−89.6%), while production value declined from €1.80 billion to €539 million (−70.1%). The steeper decline in quantity than in value indicates that the remaining EU production has shifted toward higher-value segments — a pattern consistent with the survival of specialised, premium-oriented manufacturers in countries like Italy, Portugal, and Denmark.

Source: Production volumes

2.2 Net import reliance rises from 12% to 85%

As domestic production shrank, the EU's net import reliance soared from 12.4% in 2015 to 85.3% in 2025. At the start of the period, the EU still produced the vast majority of the cotton knitwear it consumed domestically; by the end, it had become overwhelmingly dependent on extra-EU suppliers. Import volumes (in tonnes) grew by 61.3%, from 205,638 t to 331,778 t, while import unit prices (EUR per tonne) actually declined by 15.9%, from €18,348 to €15,430. This combination of rising volumes and falling unit prices suggests that EU buyers have been sourcing increasingly from low-cost origins, benefiting from global price competition among garment-producing nations.

2.3 Sourcing diversification reduces concentration risk

Despite rising import dependency, the concentration of imports among supplying countries has actually declined. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell from 2,021 to 1,781 (−11.9%). While an HHI above 1,500 still indicates moderate concentration, the downward trend means that no single supplier dominates as overwhelmingly as China once did. The entry and growth of Pakistan, Cambodia, India, and other origins has spread sourcing risk more evenly. Among the most specialised EU member states, Denmark (RSCA: 0.48), Portugal (0.44), and Poland (0.26) maintain the strongest comparative advantages in this product category, while large economies such as Germany and France are net importers with low specialisation.

3. Export Diversification and Upmarket Positioning

3.1 EU exports double in value despite modest volume growth

Over the decade, EU exports of cotton knitwear more than doubled in value, rising from €848 million to €1.72 billion (+102.5%). By contrast, export volumes in tonnes grew only 33.8% (from 19,668 t to 26,312 t), and the number of items exported rose just 15.7%. The divergence between value and volume growth points to a substantial increase in unit values: export prices per tonne rose by 51.3% (from €43,112 to €65,247), and per-item export prices climbed by 75.0% (from €14.48 to €25.34). EU exporters are selling fewer, more expensive garments — a pattern consistent with a shift toward premium positioning, design-intensive products, and higher-quality cotton knitwear that commands price premiums in third-country markets.

3.2 New high-growth export destinations emerge

The geographic profile of EU exports has diversified markedly. The United Kingdom remained the top destination (€269 million in 2025), but its share eroded as fast-growing markets absorbed more EU production:

Source: EU exports by partner

The export concentration HHI fell from 1,561 to 852 (−45.4%), confirming that EU exporters have substantially diversified their customer base. Notably, exports to China itself grew by 257%, reflecting Chinese demand for European-branded or European-designed premium knitwear. Switzerland and the US — both high-income, quality-sensitive markets — absorbed the largest absolute increases, consistent with the upmarket positioning narrative.

3.3 Italy anchors EU export capacity while Poland surges

Among EU member states, Italy was by far the largest exporter in 2025 at €567 million (up from €221 million, +156.9%), benefiting from its heritage in premium knitwear and strong brand recognition. Germany (€270 million), France (€247 million), and Spain (€160 million) followed. The most dramatic growth, however, came from Poland, whose exports surged from €8.6 million to €94.6 million — effectively a tenfold increase. Poland's emergence reflects its integration into European fast-fashion and mid-market supply chains, competitive production costs within the EU single market, and rising specialisation (RSCA: 0.26, RCA: 1.70). Per-item export prices for men's knitwear rose from €17.09 to €28.21, and for women's knitwear from €12.85 to €22.71, further confirming the EU-wide trend toward higher-value exports.

Conclusion

The EU cotton knitwear market (CN 611020) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production collapsed by nearly 90% in volume terms, pushing net import reliance from 12% to 85%. The sourcing landscape was reshaped accordingly: Bangladesh overtook China as the dominant supplier, Pakistan tripled its presence, and post-Brexit UK flows collapsed. Paradoxically, while the EU became far more dependent on imports in aggregate, supplier concentration declined — the import HHI fell as multiple Asian origins competed for EU market share. On the export side, EU shipments doubled in value despite only modest volume growth, driven by sharply rising unit prices that reflect a repositioning toward premium, design-led knitwear. Export destinations diversified markedly, with the US, Switzerland, China, and Türkiye absorbing the fastest growth. Italy consolidated its position as the EU's export powerhouse, while Poland emerged as a fast-growing new player. The net result is an EU that increasingly imports basic cotton knitwear at scale from Asia while exporting a smaller volume of higher-value garments worldwide — a classic pattern of comparative-advantage specialisation in a mature, globalised consumer-goods category.