Market evolution: Women's cotton knitwear (CN 61102099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's external trade in women's or girls' cotton jerseys, pullovers, and similar knitted articles (Customs code 61102099) over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market characterized by a profound structural transformation: a dramatic contraction of domestic EU production paired with a significant increase in import dependence. While EU exports of these goods have also grown, they have done so from a much smaller base, leading to a consistently negative and widening trade balance. The analysis explores this core dynamic, its geographic drivers, and the resulting implications for market concentration and vulnerability.

1. The Great Shift: From EU Production to Global Outsourcing

The decade from 2015 to 2025 witnessed a near-total collapse of EU-based production for this category, which was countered by a substantial surge in imports. This shift underscores a long-term trend of relocating manufacturing capacity to lower-cost third countries.

A Dramatic Retreat of Domestic Manufacturing

EU production volumes for women's cotton knitwear have plummeted. The number of items produced within the EU fell from 93.2 million in 2015 to just 10.5 million in 2025, a staggering decline of 88.7%. Production value fell correspondingly by 70.1%, from €791.5 million to €236.3 million. This data points to a decisive offshoring of manufacturing, with the EU retaining only a fraction of its previous capacity, likely focused on high-value niches or serving immediate regional demand. Production volumes

Imports Fill the Domestic Production Gap

As local production receded, imports grew to satisfy consumer demand. Total EU imports by value increased from €2.15 billion in 2015 to €2.54 billion in 2025, an 18.4% increase. More tellingly, the volume of imports in tonnes rose by 31.5%, reaching over 153,000 tonnes in 2025. This growth in import volume outpaced value growth, indicating that while the EU is buying more goods, the average price per tonne has actually decreased by 9.9%, reflecting a sustained reliance on cost-effective sourcing. Trade overview

Export Growth Outpaces Imports, but from a Small Base

EU exports of this category also experienced robust growth, increasing by 87.9% in value to reach €797 million in 2025. The quantity exported grew by 15.4%, while the unit value (price per tonne) soared by 62.9%. This suggests EU exports are moving upmarket, commanding higher prices. Nevertheless, given that export values are less than a third of import values, the overall trade balance remained deeply negative, widening slightly to a deficit of -€1.75 billion in 2025. Trade overview

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: Shifting Sourcing and Export Markets

The decline in production and rise in imports has been accompanied by a significant reconfiguration of the EU's key trading partners for this product. Sourcing has diversified away from China towards Southern and Southeast Asian competitors, while export growth has been driven by a few high-value destinations.

Bangladesh and Pakistan Emerge as Dominant Import Suppliers

The landscape of EU imports has been reshaped. China, while still a major player, saw its share of imports decline by 34.7% in value over the period. In contrast, Bangladesh consolidated its position as the top supplier, with its import value growing by 59.8% to €883 million. The most dramatic growth came from Pakistan, whose exports to the EU surged by 224.7% to €154 million. This reflects a broader shift in global textile manufacturing towards South Asia. Other suppliers like Türkiye, Cambodia, India, and Morocco also showed significant positive growth, indicating a strategic diversification of the EU's sourcing base. Partners

Export Markets: The Outsized Role of Switzerland and Niche Growth

EU exports are concentrated in a different set of partners. The United Kingdom remains the largest single export market, though its value slightly decreased. The most spectacular growth was seen in exports to Switzerland, which increased by 208.3% to become the second-largest market at €185 million. This may be linked to Switzerland's high purchasing power and its role as a logistics hub. Other notable growth markets include Türkiye (+226.1%), the United States (+185.9%), Norway (+280.5%), and China (+199.4%), demonstrating that EU exports, while smaller, are finding success in diverse, often high-income, markets. Partners

Specialization and Internal EU Trade Dynamics

Within the EU, production is highly specialized. Denmark, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy show the strongest comparative advantage (RSCA) in this product category. Italy and Germany are the largest exporters among EU members, with Italy's exports growing by 164.6%. On the import side, Germany, France, and the Netherlands are the largest consumers, though Spain saw its imports nearly double. This internal pattern suggests a functioning European supply chain where some member states specialize in production and others in consumption or re-export. Specialisation

3. Rising Vulnerability: Market Concentration and Supply Chain Shocks

The structural shifts have led to a market that is more integrated but also more vulnerable. Key metrics show increased trade intensity, higher export propensity, and significant exposure to price volatility in critical supplier nations.

Increased Dependence and Integration into Global Trade

The EU's net import reliance for this product category has increased dramatically from 19.4% in 2015 to 87.4% in 2025, a 350% surge. This confirms the near-complete dependency on foreign production. Furthermore, the trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) has risen to over 121%, meaning trade flows far exceed what is produced domestically. The most striking metric is the export propensity, which grew from 4.2% to 346.3%, indicating that EU-based players are now predominantly focused on re-exporting rather than supplying the domestic market from EU production. Vulnerability

Diversification in Sourcing vs. Concentration in Export Markets

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures concentration, tells two different stories. For imports, the HHI based on value decreased by 11.8%, indicating a modest diversification of sourcing away from China towards multiple Asian suppliers. However, the HHI based on volume increased, suggesting that while monetary sources are more spread out, physical volumes are consolidating with fewer, larger suppliers. For exports, the HHI decreased significantly by 18.3%, showing that EU exporters are successfully diversifying their sales across a wider array of global markets. Concentration

Exposure to Price Volatility and Supply Shocks

The market has experienced notable price volatility. Bangladesh, the top supplier, exhibited the highest price volatility among major import partners (CV of 0.199). More critically, the data detects a significant supply shock originating from Bangladesh in 2022, characterized by a 26.8% price shift with a high abnormality score. This coincided with a period of global inflation and supply chain stress. A smaller but still significant price shock was detected from Cambodia in the same year. For EU exporters, price volatility was highest when trading with partners like Türkiye and China. These shocks highlight the fragility of a supply chain concentrated in a few regions susceptible to geopolitical, economic, or climate-related disruptions. Volatility

Conclusion

The EU market for women's cotton knitwear (CN 61102099) between 2015 and 2025 has undergone a fundamental transformation. The core story is the strategic offshoring of production, evidenced by an 88% collapse in EU output, which has been replaced by a 31.5% increase in import volumes. This has led to a dramatic rise in net import reliance to over 87%.

The geographic pattern of this trade has shifted, with Bangladesh and Pakistan becoming central to EU sourcing, while EU exports, though growing strongly in value, find key markets in high-income countries like Switzerland and the UK. Internally, production is now highly specialized within a few EU member states.

This new structure has brought greater integration into global trade but also heightened vulnerability. The market is exposed to price volatility in supplier countries, as seen in the 2022 shocks from Bangladesh. While sourcing shows some diversification, the extreme level of import dependence creates a strategic exposure. The future trajectory will likely involve a continued focus on high-value exports from the EU's specialized producers, paired with a persistent and significant reliance on global supply chains for the bulk of consumption.