Market evolution: Cotton knitwear (CN 61102091) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 61102091 — men's or boys' jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles of cotton, knitted or crocheted — traded by the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. Over this decade, the EU market for this product category underwent a profound structural transformation: domestic production collapsed, import volumes more than doubled, export flows diversified significantly, and the EU's net import reliance surged from approximately 7% to nearly 88%. The following sections analyse these shifts and their implications.

Detailed product overview

1. The Collapse of EU Domestic Production and the Shift to Import Dependence

1.1 EU production of cotton knitwear fell by over 88% in volume

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the near-total withdrawal of EU-based manufacturing for this product category. According to the production volumes data, production in unit terms declined from 79.8 million items to 9.4 million items — a contraction of 88.2%. In value terms, production shrank from €756.4 million to €204.1 million (−73.0%), meaning that the residual EU output has shifted towards higher-value niches. Even at its trough, production volume reached only 9.3 million items, underscoring the severity and permanence of this decline.

1.2 Net import reliance surged from 6.9% to 87.6%

The collapse of domestic output translated directly into a dramatic increase in the EU's net import reliance, which rose from 6.9% in 2015 to 87.6% in 2025 — an increase of over 1,166%. This shift reflects a structural reorganisation of the global cotton knitwear value chain, in which the EU progressively offshored production to lower-cost countries while retaining only limited high-end manufacturing capacity.

1.3 Import volumes doubled while import prices fell, widening the volume–value gap

Total EU imports grew from €1,514.3 million to €2,460.3 million (+62.5%) in value, but from 83,603 tonnes to 172,610 tonnes (+106.5%) in weight. The average import price per tonne thus declined from €18,113 to €14,253 (−21.3%), indicating that the EU increasingly sourced from lower-cost suppliers and/or negotiated lower unit prices as global capacity expanded. In supplementary unit terms, imports rose from 206.1 million items to 346.2 million items (+68.0%), with a slight decline in the per-item price from €7.35 to €7.11.

2. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of Asian Suppliers and Decline of China

2.1 Bangladesh became the EU's dominant supplier, overtaking China

Among the top import partners, the most consequential shift was Bangladesh overtaking China as the EU's primary source of cotton knitwear. Bangladesh's exports to the EU grew from €404.8 million to €791.4 million (+95.5%), peaking at €951.3 million in an intermediate year. China, conversely, saw its share decline from €468.1 million to €395.6 million (−15.5%), even as absolute volumes remained substantial. Bangladesh's rise reflects its established position as a low-cost garment manufacturing hub, supported by preferential EU trade access (Everything But Arms) and competitive labour costs.

2.2 Pakistan, Cambodia, and India emerged as fast-growing secondary suppliers

Behind the two largest suppliers, several Asian countries experienced explosive growth in EU-bound cotton knitwear shipments:

Pakistan's tripling of exports to the EU is particularly notable, likely driven by investment in textile infrastructure and EU GSP+ preferences. Türkiye's near-doubling reflects its geographic proximity and vertically integrated textile sector, which allows for shorter lead times relative to Asian competitors.

2.3 The United Kingdom's role as an import source collapsed post-Brexit

The UK's exports to the EU in this product category fell from €94.4 million to €23.8 million (−74.8%), a decline that accelerated after the UK's departure from the EU Single Market and Customs Union at the end of 2020. This is consistent with the introduction of customs formalities, rules-of-origin requirements, and the loss of frictionless trade. The volatility coefficient for UK imports (CV = 1.17) is the highest among all partners, confirming the instability introduced by Brexit.

2.4 Import supply concentration eased modestly over the decade

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined from 1,940.6 to 1,706.3 (−12.1%), indicating a moderate diversification of the EU's supplier base. While Bangladesh remained the single largest source, the combined growth of Pakistan, Cambodia, India, and others broadened the supply network, reducing over-reliance on any single country — though Bangladesh alone still accounted for over 35% of import value by 2025.

3. EU Exports: Premium Positioning, Market Diversification, and Price Shocks

3.1 EU exports grew faster than imports in value terms, driven by rising unit prices

While the EU runs a persistent trade deficit in cotton knitwear (€−1,126.5 million in 2015, widening to €−1,591.1 million in 2025, or −41.2%), exports themselves grew robustly: +124.1% in value (from €387.8 million to €869.2 million) versus +59.5% in volume (from 8,603 tonnes to 13,725 tonnes). The average export price per tonne rose from €45,076 to €63,323 (+40.5%), and the supplementary price per item rose from €17.09 to €28.21 (+65.0%). This divergence between volume and price growth indicates that EU exports increasingly concentrate on higher-value, premium-positioned cotton knitwear — consistent with the residual specialisation data showing Italy (RSCA 0.25), Portugal (RSCA 0.51), Spain (RSCA 0.22), and Denmark (RSCA 0.46) as the most specialised EU exporters.

3.2 Export destinations diversified markedly, with strong growth outside Europe

The export partner structure underwent significant diversification. The export HHI collapsed from 1,993.5 to 778.8 (−60.9%), a striking shift reflecting the broadening of EU export markets:

The United States emerged as the fastest-growing destination (+392.5%), displacing the UK in relative importance. Exports to China and Türkiye each quadruppled, suggesting growing demand for EU-branded premium cotton knitwear in these markets. The UK, still the largest single destination, saw only a marginal decline, cushioned by geographic and cultural proximity.

3.3 Key price shocks disrupted bilateral flows

The shock detection analysis identified three significant events:

• Bangladesh imports, 2022: An abnormal price shock (abnormality score 39.3) with a +27.9% price shift, affecting 35.9% of import value. This likely reflects post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, raw material cost inflation, and energy price spikes in 2022.
• Russian Federation exports, 2022: A price shock (abnormality 8.2) with a +67.0% price shift, coinciding with the imposition of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted established trade relationships and likely redirected exports through intermediary channels or compressed volumes while unit values spiked.
• Panama exports, 2023: A price shock (abnormality 53.8) with a −19.6% shift, though affecting only 0.1% of export value — indicative of re-export or small-lot anomalies rather than a systemic market event.

Import volatility was highest for the UK (CV 1.17) and Pakistan (CV 0.41), while export volatility was most pronounced for Ukraine (CV 0.60) and Serbia (CV 0.57), reflecting geopolitical instability in these markets.

Conclusion

The EU market for cotton knitwear (CN 61102091) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has been reduced to a fraction of its former scale, replaced by a surge in imports — predominantly from Bangladesh, China, and Türkiye — that has driven net import reliance to nearly 88%. At the same time, EU exports have shifted decisively towards higher-value positioning, with unit prices rising substantially and destinations diversifying away from the UK towards the United States, Switzerland, and East Asian markets. The trade deficit has widened, but the nature of the EU's role has changed: rather than competing on volume, the remaining EU production base (led by Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Denmark) increasingly serves premium and fast-fashion segments. The key vulnerabilities going forward remain concentrated supplier dependence on Bangladesh (alone accounting for over 35% of imports), the lingering instability of post-Brexit UK–EU trade, and the exposure of bilateral flows to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks, as evidenced by the 2022 disruptions.