Market evolution: Women's synthetic knitwear (CN 61103099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in women's or girls' jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles of man-made fibres, knitted or crocheted (CN 61103099), over the period 2015 to 2025. The product scope sits within the broader category of knitted apparel (CN 61) and corresponds to EU production code 14.39.10.72.

Over the decade, the EU's trade balance in this product category deteriorated significantly: the trade deficit widened from −€2.89 billion in 2015 to −€3.47 billion in 2025 (+20.3% in absolute terms). Import volumes grew by 34.6% while export volumes declined by 13.6%. At the same time, EU domestic production collapsed dramatically—from 123 million items to just 11.5 million items (−90.6% in quantity) and from €1.14 billion to €237 million in value (−79.2%). These structural shifts point to a near-complete offshoring of EU manufacturing capacity for this product.

The following three sections explore these dynamics in detail.

I. The Manufacturing Exodus: EU Production Collapse and Surging Import Dependence

EU domestic production has all but disappeared

The most striking structural feature of this market is the near-total erosion of EU production. Between 2015 and 2025, production volumes fell from 123,250,973 items to 11,531,814 items (−90.6%), while production value declined from €1,137,020,668 to €236,900,540 (−79.2%). The partial disconnect between the two figures—value declining less sharply than volume—suggests that the remaining EU producers have concentrated on higher-value, niche segments, while mass-market production has been almost entirely offshored.

Net import reliance has surged to over 90%

With domestic production shrinking, the EU's net import reliance climbed from 21.5% in 2015 to 92.9% in 2025—an increase of 331.7%. This figure implies that the vast majority of synthetic women's knitwear consumed in the EU is now sourced from outside the bloc. This trajectory aligns with the broader pattern in EU textile and apparel trade, but the speed and scale of the shift in this specific product segment is particularly pronounced.

Trade intensity and export propensity have also evolved sharply

Trade intensity (the ratio of trade to apparent consumption) rose from 28.4% to 112.6%, indicating that the EU now trades more of this product externally than it consumes domestically—a hallmark of a re-export economy. Meanwhile, export propensity surged from 5.1% to 317.9%, suggesting that a growing share of the limited domestic output is channelled to external markets—likely premium or branded goods that command higher prices.

II. Shifting Supply Chains: Asian Dominance, Emerging Sourcing, and Price Divergence

China remains the dominant supplier but faces growing competition from South and Southeast Asia

EU imports by partner country reveal that China is by far the largest supplier, with import values rising from €1.76 billion to €2.00 billion (+13.6%). However, its growth rate is moderate compared to several competitors:

Bangladesh has become the second-largest supplier, growing its share substantially. Meanwhile, Myanmar (+315.5%), Pakistan (+105.9%), and Vietnam (+93.9%) have emerged as fast-growing alternative sources. This diversification reflects both the EU's efforts to reduce single-source dependency and the increasing capacity of textile industries across South and Southeast Asia.

Import prices have fallen while export prices have risen—a growing value gap

A notable dynamic is the divergence in unit values. Import prices per tonne fell from €18,422 to €16,292 (−11.6%), while export prices per tonne rose from €35,690 to €46,822 (+31.2%). The per-item figures tell the same story: import prices per item declined from €5.92 to €5.52 (−6.7%), while export prices per item rose from €11.47 to €15.03 (+31.1%).

This widening gap suggests that the EU is importing increasingly commoditised, lower-cost synthetic knitwear (primarily from cost-competitive Asian producers), while the goods it still exports are higher-value products—likely branded, fashion-forward, or niche items destined for affluent markets.

Supply shocks in 2022 disrupted major sourcing corridors

The volatility analysis reveals significant price shocks concentrated in 2022. Bangladesh—accounting for 27% of import value—experienced a price shock with an abnormality score of 69.4 and a 19.8% price shift. Cambodia (7.9% of import value) saw a similar 20.5% shift. These shocks likely reflect the combined effects of post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, rising raw material and energy costs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and labour cost inflation in producing countries.

Among EU export destinations, Japan experienced a dramatic export price shock in 2023, with a 199.4% shift and an abnormality score of 200.5—albeit on a relatively small share of total exports (2.5%). This may reflect currency effects, a one-off contract, or a shift in the composition of exports to that market.

III. Diverging Destinations: Export Market Restructuring Within and Beyond Europe

The UK remains the top EU export market but has declined, while Switzerland and Norway have surged

Looking at EU export destinations, the United Kingdom was the largest single market in 2015 (€169 million) but declined to €119 million by 2025 (−29.4%). This may partly reflect the impact of Brexit-related trade friction. Conversely, Switzerland grew from €117 million to €216 million (+85.0%) and Norway from €16 million to €37 million (+125.9%), suggesting that European non-EU markets have absorbed some of the UK decline.

Türkiye also emerged as a significant export destination, growing from €26 million to €81 million (+209.2%), possibly reflecting circular trade flows—whereby semi-finished goods are exported for finishing and re-imported, or where Türkiye acts as a regional distribution hub.

Russia, which was the third-largest export market in 2015 (€67 million), shrank to €33 million by 2025 (−51.4%), almost certainly as a result of EU sanctions and trade restrictions following 2022.

Poland has emerged as a major EU export hub

Among EU reporting countries, Poland stands out with a 720.9% increase in exports—from €9.5 million in 2015 to €78.2 million in 2025. This positions Poland as a significant re-export or assembly hub, likely benefiting from its cost-competitive labour market, proximity to Western European consumers, and integration into EU supply chains. Germany remains the largest EU exporter (€211 million, +24.6%), followed by Italy (€150 million, +8.7%) and Spain (€125 million, −30.8%).

Regional specialisation patterns confirm a North–South–East EU divide

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals distinct competitive advantages within the EU:

Denmark, despite its small overall footprint, shows the highest relative specialisation (RSCA of 0.63). Spain and Poland are also significantly specialised, consistent with their roles as competitive textile producers. Germany, while the largest single exporter, is not specialised—its exports are commensurate with its overall trade weight, indicating a more generalist role. At the other end of the spectrum, countries such as Malta (RSCA −0.94), Ireland (−0.88), and Estonia (−0.87) show negligible specialisation in this product.

Conclusion

The EU trade in women's synthetic knitwear (CN 61103099) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has effectively collapsed, with output declining by over 90% in volume and nearly 80% in value, pushing net import reliance from 21.5% to 92.9%. The import side is dominated by China, but Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Pakistan have emerged as increasingly important suppliers, reflecting a broader diversification of global textile supply chains.

The price dynamics reveal a clear value stratification: EU imports are becoming cheaper on a per-unit basis, while exports command a premium—suggesting that the EU's remaining role in this market is increasingly focused on higher-value, branded, or design-intensive segments rather than mass production.

On the export side, the market has restructured geographically. Brexit-related friction and sanctions on Russia have reshaped demand patterns, with Switzerland, Norway, and Türkiye absorbing growth. Within the EU, Poland's emergence as a major exporter (720.9% growth) highlights the shifting geography of European manufacturing.

Looking ahead, the EU's near-total import dependence—concentrated in a handful of Asian suppliers—exposes it to supply chain risks, as evidenced by the 2022 price shocks. Policymakers may wish to monitor whether ongoing diversification efforts and nearshoring trends (notably the growth of Türkiye and Eastern European producers) can meaningfully reduce this vulnerability.