Market evolution: Synthetic knitwear (CN 61103091) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in men's or boys' knitted synthetic pullovers, jerseys, and similar articles (CN 61103091) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market characterized by a profound structural shift: a dramatic surge in imports has outpaced modest export growth, fundamentally reshaping the EU's trade balance, production landscape, and supply chain geography. Key dynamics include the erosion of domestic production, a growing reliance on Asian suppliers, and the emergence of new strategic vulnerabilities, all set against a backdrop of volatile prices and shifting partnerships.

1. A Decade of Unbalanced Growth: The Import Surge and Widening Trade Deficit

The most defining trend in the EU synthetic knitwear market over the decade has been the explosive growth of imports, which has far exceeded the evolution of exports, leading to a significantly deteriorating trade balance. The EU's trade balance for CN 61103091 deteriorated from a deficit of -519 million EUR in 2015 to -950 million EUR in 2025, a decline of 83.0%.

The magnitude of the import expansion

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports from non-EU countries increased by 74.0%, from 675 million EUR to 1.175 billion EUR. More strikingly, the volume (in tonnes) more than doubled, growing by 108.7% from 47,320 to 98,758 tonnes. This indicates not only increased purchasing but also a shift towards higher-volume, lower-cost sourcing.

Constrained export growth

In contrast, EU exports grew more moderately. Export value rose 44.3% to reach 226 million EUR in 2025, while volume increased by 17.0% to 5,463 tonnes. The growth in export value was partly driven by a 23.3% increase in the unit price (EUR per tonne), suggesting a possible niche or higher-quality segment in export markets.

2. Shifting Centers of Gravity: Domestic Production Decline and Geographic Reorientation of Trade

The surge in imports is intrinsically linked to a steep decline in EU domestic production, which has led to a geographical reorientation of the supply chain towards low-cost Asian economies, while the profile of key EU exporters has also changed.

The collapse of EU production

Data on EU production volumes for CN 61103091 tells a stark story. Production quantity (in items) fell by 90.1%, from 39.2 million items in 2015 to just 3.9 million in 2025. Production value also collapsed by 68.3%. This near-total offshoring has transformed the EU from a significant producer into a predominantly importing market.

The Asian ascent in EU imports

The top import partners data reveals a strong consolidation in Asia. China and Bangladesh remained the largest suppliers, with import values rising by 62.0% and 75.2% respectively. However, the most dramatic growth came from new or previously minor suppliers:

• Cambodia: +293.6% (to 91.0 million EUR)
• Myanmar: +608.9% (to 41.5 million EUR)
• Pakistan: +206.2% (to 35.2 million EUR)

This diversification within Asia indicates a search for competitive advantage beyond China. A notable exception is the United Kingdom, which saw its exports to the EU fall by 57.1%, likely a consequence of post-Brexit trade friction.

A changing landscape for EU exporters

The top EU exporters experienced divergent fates. Traditional leaders like Spain and the Netherlands saw their export values decline by 22.4% and 25.2% respectively. In contrast, Italy (+69.6%) and France (+303.6%) strengthened their positions, as did Poland (+408.7%), pointing to a potential shift in the intra-EU production map towards countries with stronger niche capabilities or lower labour costs within the bloc.

3. Increased Strategic Exposure: Vulnerability, Price Shocks, and Market Concentration

The deepened reliance on external suppliers has heightened the EU's strategic exposure to supply chain disruptions and price volatility, though efforts to diversify sourcing have partially mitigated concentration risks.

Rising net import reliance

The EU's net import reliance for this product category soared from 11.7% in 2015 to 89.2% in 2025. This metric, which measures the share of domestic consumption met by imports, confirms that the market has become almost entirely dependent on foreign supply, a major shift over a decade.

Moderating concentration, persistent volatility

Despite the geographic diversification of suppliers, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value decreased only slightly (-7.8%), remaining at a level indicating a moderately concentrated market. This diversification has not insulated the EU from volatility. Analysis of price shocks detected significant events:

• Bangladesh (2022): A price shock with an abnormality score of 6.3 and a 26.5% price shift, impacting a supplier that accounts for nearly 33% of import value.
• Algeria (2023): An extreme export price shock (abnormality 195.0) for EU exporters, highlighting volatility in smaller markets.

Furthermore, partners like Myanmar and Cambodia exhibit high volatility coefficients (0.70 and 0.52), indicating that while they are growing rapidly, their trade flows are less stable than those of established suppliers like China (CV of 0.17).

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU market for CN 61103091 underwent a structural transformation driven by the near-total offshoring of production. This shift fuelled an import boom that widened the trade deficit and fundamentally altered the supply chain map, with significant growth emerging from new Asian hubs like Cambodia and Myanmar. While EU exporters found growth in select markets like Switzerland and the US, and some intra-EU production shifted to Poland, these developments were dwarfed by the scale of import penetration. The resulting near-90% import reliance represents a critical vulnerability. Although supplier diversification has slightly reduced market concentration, the EU remains exposed to price shocks from key partners and the inherent volatility of rapidly growing but less stable supply sources. The market has evolved from one with a meaningful production base to one overwhelmingly dependent on global, and particularly Asian, supply chains.