Market evolution: Silkworm cocoons (CN 5001) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in silkworm cocoons suitable for reeling (customs code 5001) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on trade values, volumes, prices, partner dynamics, and market concentration, drawing on the provided data. The period was characterized by significant structural shifts, including a collapse in import values and a dramatic reorientation of supply sources, coupled with volatile and concentrated export patterns.

The Great Import Recalibration: From High-Value to High-Volume Sourcing

EU imports of silkworm cocoons underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025, shifting from a high-value, low-volume model to a lower-value, stable-volume one. This indicates a strategic change in sourcing, moving away from premium-priced suppliers toward more cost-effective origins.

Value and Price Collapse Amidst Stable Import Volumes

The total value of EU imports fell by 63.7%, from €32,197 in 2015 to €11,701 in 2025. Crucially, this decline occurred despite a relatively stable import quantity (a decrease of only 14.2%, from 0.894 tonnes to 0.767 tonnes). The primary driver was a staggering 58.4% drop in the unit import price, from €36,015 per tonne to €14,979 per tonne. This price collapse suggests that EU buyers successfully shifted their procurement to lower-cost sources or that global silk cocoon prices underwent a deflationary trend during this period.

The Dramatic Retreat of Chinese Supply

The most striking dynamic was the near-complete withdrawal of China from the EU import market. In 2015, China was the second-largest supplier by value (€7,125). By 2025, its share had evaporated, with imports valued at just €421—a precipitous decline of 94.1%. This collapse, occurring in a market with stable overall volumes, indicates a massive substitution effect. General Overview

The Rise of New Key Suppliers: Norway and Switzerland

As Chinese supply receded, Norway and Switzerland emerged as critical suppliers. Norway’s imports surged from a negligible €19 in 2015 to €1,166 in 2025 (a 6,113% increase). Switzerland's growth was even more pronounced in proportional terms, rising from €40 to €1,801 (a 4,403% increase). These two countries, along with a persistent Türkiye, filled the void left by China, fundamentally reshaping the EU's import dependency landscape. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value decreased by 38.7%, confirming a diversification away from dominant suppliers like China and Thailand. Top Partners

Export Fluctuations: Volatile Volumes and Extreme Price Shocks

EU exports of silkworm cocoons displayed high volatility in both volume and price, characterized by sporadic, large shipments to specific destinations and severe price anomalies. While the overall trade balance became strongly positive, the export side of the market was less stable and more concentrated than the import side.

Erratic Export Volumes and Plummeting Unit Prices

Export volumes were highly volatile, ranging from a low of 0.163 tonnes to a peak of 48.559 tonnes over the decade. The final volume in 2025 (20.113 tonnes) represented a 225.3% increase from 2015 levels. In stark contrast, the unit export price fell by 67.6%, from €8,955 per tonne to €2,897 per tonne. The combination of growing volumes and collapsing prices points to exports being driven by occasional, potentially one-off, large shipments of lower-quality cocoons, rather than a consistent high-value trade.

Highly Concentrated and Sporadic Destination Markets

The EU's export market became significantly more concentrated. The export HHI by value rose by 80.5% to 7,389 by 2025, indicating a high level of market concentration. This was driven by exports becoming reliant on a few, often sporadic, partners. For instance, shipments to El Salvador (€49,968), Bonaire (€16,100), and Nigeria (€33,515 in 2015) appear as isolated spikes with zero subsequent activity. Conversely, exports to the United Kingdom, while persistent, were volatile and fell by 32.5% in value over the period.

Severe Price Shocks Linked to Trade with the United Kingdom

The volatility analysis identified major price shocks in EU export trade, all involving the United Kingdom. The most extreme was a price shock in 2021 with an abnormality score of 18.3 and a staggering shift of 1,611.1% relative to the trend, accounting for 57.2% of the export value that year. A similar, though less extreme, price shock occurred in UK imports from the EU in 2020. These events highlight the highly unstable pricing dynamics in this specific bilateral trade relationship within the broader cocoon market. Volatility & Shocks

Internal EU Market Restructuring: Shifting Production and Specialisation Hubs

Within the EU, the sourcing and re-exporting of silkworm cocoons underwent a notable internal restructuring. Trade activity and specialisation shifted decisively among member states, indicating changes in domestic silk reeling industry locations or re-export logistics.

Diverging Fortunes of EU Member States as Traders

The performance of EU member states as importers and exporters diverged sharply. On the import side, Lithuania became the dominant hub, with imports soaring by 2,316% to €26,286 in 2025. France also saw strong growth (801%). In contrast, traditional hubs like Sweden (–95%) and Austria (–97.8%) saw their import activity collapse. For exports, France transformed into the primary exporter, with its value increasing by 550% to €50,535, while the Netherlands, Ireland, and Spain saw their once-significant export activities effectively disappear.

Czechia as the EU's Most Specialised Producer

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals that among the listed member states, Czechia holds a dominant position in silk cocoon production. It exhibits an extremely high Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 10.65 and a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.83, with over half of its relevant production output destined for export. France and Germany show moderate specialisation, while Romania shows a strong negative RSCA, indicating it is a net importer and not specialised in this product. This suggests that the core of the EU's niche silk cocoon reeling industry is concentrated in Czechia, with France and Germany as significant secondary players. Market Specialisation

Conclusion

The EU market for silkworm cocoons between 2015 and 2025 is a story of dramatic realignment. The import side consolidated into a more cost-effective model, shedding its reliance on China in favor of European and nearby suppliers like Norway and Switzerland, leading to lower prices but stable volumes. The export side, however, remained volatile and niche, characterized by sporadic, large shipments and extreme price swings, resulting in a highly concentrated market structure. Internally, the EU's trade geography was redrawn, with Lithuania and France emerging as key trade hubs and Czechia solidifying its role as the bloc's specialised producer. Overall, the trade balance improved significantly, driven not by premium exports but by a successful, and perhaps necessary, strategy of import cost reduction in a fluctuating global silk market.