Market evolution: Silk yarn (CN 5006) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the European Union's external trade in silk yarn and related products (Combined Nomenclature code 5006) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by a significant contraction in trade volumes, a marked shift in key trading partners, and increased volatility, pointing to a fundamental restructuring of the sector. The EU's position evolved from near balance to a structural trade surplus, driven more by a collapse in imports than by export resilience. The overarching narrative is one of declining engagement with traditional suppliers and a move towards greater self-reliance.
Overview of trade data for CN 5006
1. A Contracting Market: Declining Trade Volumes and Value
The period under review saw a pronounced contraction in the EU's total trade (imports and exports) in silk yarn. Both the volume and value of flows declined, with imports experiencing a more severe drop than exports, fundamentally altering the trade balance.
1.1 Imports Plunged More Steeply Than Exports
EU imports of silk yarn from non-EU countries fell dramatically between 2015 and 2025. Import value decreased by 48.3%, from €2.2 million to €1.1 million, while import quantity fell by 26.0%, from 26.3 tonnes to 19.5 tonnes. The decline was not linear; import value hit a low of €0.87 million in an unspecified year within the period. Exports also contracted, but less sharply, with value falling 20.4% (from €2.6 million to €2.1 million) and quantity declining 32.3% (from 35.9 tonnes to 24.3 tonnes).
| Metric | First Period (2015) | Last Period (2025) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Value (EUR) | 2,200,388 | 1,137,797 | -48.3% |
| Import Quantity (tonnes) | 26.296 | 19.451 | -26.0% |
| Export Value (EUR) | 2,605,386 | 2,074,599 | -20.4% |
| Export Quantity (tonnes) | 35.898 | 24.303 | -32.3% |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | 404,997 | 936,802 | +131.3% |
General overview of trade metrics
1.2 Unit Values Showed Divergent Trends
The average unit prices (EUR per tonne) for EU exports and imports moved in opposite directions. Export prices increased by 17.4% over the period, indicating a potential shift towards higher-value products. In contrast, import prices fell by 30.2%, suggesting competitive pressure from lower-cost suppliers or a change in the product mix imported.
1.3 The EU Became a Net Exporter
The combined effect of the steeper import decline was a swing in the trade balance from a modest surplus of €405,000 in 2015 to a substantial surplus of €937,000 in 2025, an increase of 131.3%. This indicates the EU reduced its net reliance on external suppliers for this product category.
2. A Radical Restructuring of Trading Partnerships
The landscape of the EU's key partners for silk yarn underwent a near-complete transformation. Traditional major suppliers saw their market share evaporate, while new or previously minor partners gained prominence, leading to a significant reduction in trade concentration.
2.1 Traditional Suppliers Faced Severe Declines
Japan and Switzerland, the top two import partners by value in 2015, experienced catastrophic declines. Imports from Japan fell by 79.7% (from €1.09 million to €221,128), and those from Switzerland collapsed by 92.7% (from €361,140 to €26,490). China, the third-largest source, saw imports drop by 64.8%.
2.2 New Dynamics Emerged in Export Markets
EU export markets also shifted dramatically. Switzerland, the largest export destination in 2015, saw shipments fall by 75.3%. Conversely, exports to Tunisia increased by 344.7% (from €90,828 to €403,883), making it the top export market by 2025. The United Kingdom also became a more significant destination, with exports rising 69.0%.
| Partner | 2015 Import Value (EUR) | 2025 Import Value (EUR) | Change | 2015 Export Value (EUR) | 2025 Export Value (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1,089,510 | 221,127 | -79.7% | - | - | - |
| Switzerland | 361,140 | 26,490 | -92.7% | 991,112 | 245,004 | -75.3% |
| China | 289,018 | 101,670 | -64.8% | - | - | - |
| Tunisia | 252,422 | 224,880 | -10.9% | 90,828 | 403,883 | +344.7% |
| Türkiye | 6,575 | 199,614 | +2936.0% | 77,845 | 4,578 | -94.1% |
| United Kingdom | 42,035 | 15,137 | -64.0% | 125,590 | 212,288 | +69.0% |
2.3 Trade Concentration Halved
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, fell sharply for both import and export flows. For imports, the HHI based on value dropped by 50.9%, from 3044 to 1496. For exports, it decreased by 41.4%. This indicates that trade became dispersed among a wider set of partners, reducing dependency on any single country.
3. Increased Volatility, Price Shocks, and a Shift Toward Self-Reliance
The silk yarn market exhibited growing instability and price shocks during the period, which coincided with a clear trend of the EU moving towards greater autonomy in production, even as the industry faced significant challenges.
3.1 High Price Volatility Characterized Key Relationships
Trade flows with many partners displayed high volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation). For instance, EU imports from Türkiye, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom were highly volatile (CV >1.2). On the export side, shipments to Japan, Egypt, and Norway were similarly unstable. This volatility reflects erratic shipment patterns and uncertain supply chains.
3.2 Significant Price Shocks Disrupted the Market
The data identifies several major price shock events. The most severe was an 1852.5% price shift in exports to Türkiye centered in 2019. Exports to the Russian Federation saw a 208.6% price shock in 2023. On the import side, prices from China experienced a 200.2% shock in 2021. These events highlight the market's susceptibility to sudden price dislocations.
| Shock Event | Flow | Center Year | Price Shift (%) | Abnormality Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye (exports) | Exports | 2019 | +1852.5% | 41.7 |
| Russian Federation (exports) | Exports | 2023 | +208.6% | 41.2 |
| China (imports) | Imports | 2021 | +200.2% | 10.6 |
Data on detected supply shocks
3.3 Production and Self-Reliance Indicators Point to a Structural Shift
Despite the decline in trade, EU production data suggests a move towards greater self-reliance. While production quantity (in kg) fell by 46.2% (from 1,015,289 kg to 546,000 kg), production value increased by 104.5% (from €16.6 million to €34.0 million). This indicates a shift to higher-value, possibly niche, production. The net import reliance metric turned more negative, moving from -0.6% to -3.4%, confirming the EU's strengthened net exporter position. The most specialised EU producers in 2025, according to the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index, were Greece, Portugal, and Italy, suggesting these nations retain a niche competitive advantage.
Conclusion
The EU silk yarn market underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The period was defined by a substantial contraction in trade, with imports falling faster than exports, thereby creating a consistent trade surplus. This was accompanied by a radical reconfiguration of the partnership map, as traditional suppliers from Japan and Switzerland were replaced by a more diversified but volatile set of partners including Tunisia, Türkiye, and the United Kingdom. Increased price volatility and severe shocks underscored the market's instability. Ultimately, the data points to a sector that has become less integrated in global trade, with the EU achieving a degree of greater self-reliance, likely through a focus on higher-value production amidst a shrinking overall market.