Market evolution: Silk yarn not for retail (CN 5004) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in silk yarn (excluding spun from silk waste and retail-ready products) under Combined Nomenclature code 5004 over the 2015–2025 period. The EU is a net importer of this product, and the decade under review reveals a market in structural contraction: both import and export values have declined significantly, though the trade deficit has narrowed. Several dynamics explain this evolution — a severe demand shock during the COVID-19 pandemic, a geographic reshuffling of trade partners, and a notable divergence between falling import volumes and rising import prices.

1. A shrinking market with a narrowing trade deficit

Overall trade volumes have contracted sharply

Between 2015 and 2025, EU trade in CN 5004 declined on both sides of the ledger. Imports fell from €36.4 million to €25.1 million (−31.1%), while exports dropped from €8.6 million to €5.4 million (−36.4%). In volume terms, the decline in imports was even steeper, falling from 672 tonnes to 371 tonnes (−44.8%), compared with a more moderate drop in export quantities from 119 tonnes to 90 tonnes (−24.4%).

Import prices have diverged from export prices

A striking feature of the period is the divergence in unit prices. Import prices rose by 25.0%, from €54,248/t to €67,807/t, reflecting either a shift toward higher-quality yarn, reduced bargaining power, or supply-side cost pressures. Meanwhile, export prices declined by 15.9%, from €71,839/t to €60,406/t, eroding the EU's historical price premium. By 2025, the gap between import and export unit values had essentially closed (€67,807 vs. €60,406), compared with a substantial premium of €17,591/t in 2015.

Net import reliance has improved substantially

The net import reliance of the EU in silk yarn dropped from 33.2% to 20.4% over the period (−38.6%). This suggests that while the market is shrinking overall, the EU has become somewhat less dependent on external supply relative to domestic production and consumption. Similarly, the trade intensity declined from 46.6% to 28.9%, indicating that external trade has become a smaller share of the total market.

2. Geographic reshuffling of trade partners

China remains the dominant import supplier but has lost ground

China has been the EU's primary source of silk yarn imports throughout the decade. However, its share has shifted: imports from China fell from €23.5 million to €17.8 million (−24.3%). Despite this decline, China still accounted for approximately 71% of EU import value by 2025. A significant price shock was detected in Chinese import prices in 2022 (+36.8%, abnormality score 6.3), coinciding with post-pandemic supply disruptions and logistics bottlenecks.

Viet Nam's collapse and India's emergence

The most dramatic shift among import partners has been the near-disappearance of Viet Nam and the rise of India. Imports from Viet Nam plunged from €7.6 million to €2.5 million (−66.9%), a decline that is among the steepest in the dataset. By contrast, imports from India grew from €459,000 to €798,000 (+73.9%), suggesting a partial diversification of sourcing toward South Asia. Other traditional suppliers — Brazil (−46.7%), Japan (−46.3%), and the United Kingdom (−83.7%) — also saw significant declines.

Export destinations have shifted from the UK to the US

On the export side, the United Kingdom — historically the EU's largest export market for silk yarn — collapsed from €6.9 million to €2.6 million (−62.3%), likely reflecting the impact of Brexit and the resulting trade frictions. Conversely, exports to the United States surged from €156,000 to €1.08 million (+593.7%), making the US the EU's top export destination by 2025. Other notable shifts include a strong increase in exports to Russia (+880.0%) and China (+167.0%), though from much smaller bases.

3. Italy's dominant but declining role and internal EU restructuring

Italy anchors EU silk yarn trade but has ceded ground

Italy has long been the centre of the EU's silk yarn industry, benefiting from its historical expertise in luxury textiles. In 2015, Italy accounted for €26.7 million of EU imports and €7.6 million of EU exports — by far the largest EU member state in both categories. By 2025, Italy's imports had fallen to €9.9 million (−62.9%) and its exports to €5.1 million (−33.2%). Despite this contraction, Italy remains the EU's largest exporter of silk yarn, maintaining a revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 2.29) — one of only three EU members with an RCA above 1.

Slovenia has emerged as a major import hub

The most striking internal development has been the explosive growth of Slovenia as an import location. Slovenian imports of CN 5004 surged from €213,000 to €10.3 million (+4,748%), making it the largest importing member state by 2025, overtaking even Italy. Slovenia also has a very high RCA (9.77) and a positive Balassa index, suggesting it has become a specialised processing or re-export hub within the EU, possibly connected to Italian supply chains given geographic proximity.

Germany and Austria have exited as significant players

In stark contrast, Germany's imports collapsed from €8.1 million to €760,000 (−90.6%), and its exports fell from €103,000 to €42,000 (−59.2%). Austria's exports dropped to near zero (from €508,000 to just €60). These declines suggest a broader retreat of Central European economies from the silk yarn trade, consistent with the long-term secular decline of European silk production.

EU production has grown modestly despite trade contraction

Despite the contraction in trade flows, EU production volumes increased by 15.6%, from 2,422 tonnes to 2,800 tonnes, and production value rose by 46.0%, from €68.5 million to €100 million. This divergence between growing domestic production and declining trade suggests that the EU's silk yarn market has become more self-contained, with less need for imports and less export-oriented activity. The export propensity — the share of domestic production exported — fell sharply from 13.1% to 6.2% (−52.4%), confirming this inward reorientation.

Conclusion

The EU's market for silk yarn (CN 5004) has undergone significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. The overall market has contracted, with both import and export values declining by roughly one-third. However, this masks several important structural shifts. Import volumes have fallen far more steeply (−44.8%) than import values (−31.1%), reflecting rising unit prices — a sign of either quality upgrading or supplier consolidation among fewer, higher-cost sources. China's dominance as an import supplier has persisted, but other traditional sources such as Viet Nam have declined sharply, while India has emerged modestly. On the export side, the loss of the UK market (likely Brexit-related) has been more than offset by dramatic growth in shipments to the United States. Internally, Italy remains the backbone of EU silk yarn trade, but Slovenia has emerged as an unexpected import powerhouse. The overall picture is of an industry that is becoming more self-sufficient, more concentrated in fewer trading relationships, and increasingly driven by high-value production in a small number of specialised EU member states.