Market evolution: Raw silk (CN 5002) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in raw, non-thrown silk (Customs Code 5002) from 2015 to 2025. Raw silk is the primary, unprocessed filament reeled from silkworm cocoons, a niche agricultural commodity essential for the high-end textile and luxury goods industries. The EU is historically a major consumer but a minor producer. This analysis is based exclusively on the provided trade data, focusing on value, volume, pricing dynamics, trade partners, and structural shifts to identify the key trends over the observed decade.

The EU's Reinforcement as a Net Import-Dependent Market

The period 2015–2025 solidified the EU's position as a major importing bloc with negligible domestic production, leading to a structurally dependent trade profile.

Trade Value and Volume Showed Divergent Growth

EU imports of raw silk grew modestly in value but stagnated in volume, indicating persistent price inflation. In contrast, export growth was robust across both metrics, albeit from a much smaller base.

Source: General Overview

The data indicates that the EU's import bill increased due to rising unit prices, not higher volumes. Meanwhile, the EU's niche export sector saw significant expansion, with volumes more than doubling and values nearly quadrupling, even as its own export prices rose.

Domestic Production Ceased Entirely

A defining structural shift is the complete cessation of raw silk production within the EU during this period.

Source: Market Structure - Production

The decline from over 1.7 million kg in 2015 to zero in 2025 renders the EU entirely reliant on imports to meet any domestic demand. This collapse of local supply fundamentally explains the persistent trade deficit and rising net import reliance.

Shifting Trade Partnerships and Increasing Export Concentration

While China maintained its dominance on the import side, the EU's export relationships underwent dramatic reconfiguration, leading to a more concentrated export market structure.

China Held Sway over EU Imports Despite Fluctuations from Minor Suppliers

China remained the overwhelmingly dominant supplier of raw silk to the EU, accounting for the bulk of import value. Other suppliers, while showing high percentage growth from small bases, remained volatile and insignificant in scale.

Source: Top Partners by Value

The data shows a high degree of volatility among minor suppliers, with several (Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia) experiencing near-total collapses in trade, while others (Viet Nam) surged. This underscores the fragility of non-Chinese supply chains.

EU Export Destinations Were Radically Reoriented

The geography of EU raw silk exports shifted dramatically. Traditional partners like Turkey and Brazil vanished, while trade with Tunisia and the United Kingdom exploded.

Source: Top Partners by Value

This reorientation points to a consolidation of the EU's export market. The disappearance of exports to Turkey and Brazil suggests a withdrawal from certain textile manufacturing hubs, while the surge to Tunisia and Bosnia may reflect intra-European or near-shoring production networks.

Export Market Concentration Sharply Increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms the structural shift observed in the partner data. While the import market remained highly concentrated (on China), the export market became significantly more concentrated.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

The doubling of the export HHI indicates that EU raw silk exports became reliant on a fewer number of key partner countries (notably Tunisia and the UK), which increased both the efficiency and the vulnerability of its export trade.

Rising Vulnerability and Documented Supply Shocks

The combination of ceased production, import dependency, and partner concentration exposed the EU's raw silk trade to heightened vulnerability and price shocks.

Net Import Reliance Approached Total Dependency

The metric of net import reliance moved from a high level to full dependency, reflecting the collapse of domestic production.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

The 100% net import reliance in 2025 is the clearest indicator of vulnerability. The extraordinarily high and volatile "export propensity" figure—calculated as the ratio of exports to domestic production—becomes mathematically extreme as production nears zero, highlighting the EU's role as a pure re-exporter or processor of imported silk rather than a primary producer.

The Market Experienced a Major Price Shock in 2022

Volatility analysis identifies specific abnormal price movements, with the most significant shock occurring in imports from China in 2022.

Source: Top Shock Events

The 2022 price shock for Chinese imports (a 32.6% year-on-year unit value increase, with an abnormality score of 11.3) was the most severe event recorded. This coincides with global supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The simultaneous, divergent price shocks in EU exports to Bosnia (-17.2%) and the UK (+156.2%) further illustrate the market's volatility and uneven transmission of cost pressures.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's raw silk market underwent a fundamental transformation. Domestic production collapsed completely, cementing the bloc's total dependence on imports. This import reliance is overwhelmingly focused on China, which maintained its market control despite price volatility and the rise of minor, unstable suppliers.

On the export side, the EU's trade was radically reoriented towards new partners like Tunisia and the United Kingdom, causing a sharp increase in export market concentration. The period culminated in full net import reliance (100%) and exposed the EU to significant external shocks, as evidenced by the major Chinese import price spike in 2022. The EU's role evolved from a minor producer to a niche processor and re-exporter of a raw material it no longer produces, leaving its downstream silk industry fully exposed to global supply risks and price fluctuations.