Market evolution: Road tractors (CN 870121) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in diesel-powered road tractors for semi-trailers (customs code 870121) over the period 2015–2025. Although the analysis window was requested from January 2015, the available data only begins in 2022; all comparisons below therefore cover the four full years 2022–2025.

The EU is both the world's largest producer and a dominant net exporter of this vehicle category. With annual production valued at approximately EUR 16 billion (2022 and 2025) and outward flows consistently exceeding imports by a factor of six to nine, the bloc occupies a structurally surplus position. Over the 2022–2025 period, however, that surplus narrowed, export volumes declined, and the composition of trade shifted in notable ways — both geographically and in the balance between new and used vehicles.

1. A Large but Contracting Trade Surplus

The EU maintained a multi-billion-euro trade surplus throughout the period

The EU's trade balance in road tractors remained strongly positive across all four years. It ranged from a peak of EUR 8,225 million in 2023 to EUR 6,200 million in 2025, a decline of 13.0% over the full period.

Source: General Overview — trade

Both exports and imports fell, but imports contracted more steeply

The value of EU exports declined by 16.2% (from EUR 8,487 million to EUR 7,110 million), while imports dropped by 33.2% (from EUR 1,361 million to EUR 910 million). In volume terms, the divergence was even sharper: export mass fell 6.2% (from 1,317,419 tonnes to 1,235,525 tonnes), whereas import mass fell 39.1% (from 154,763 tonnes to 94,257 tonnes). Imports thus fell roughly three to six times faster than exports depending on the metric, meaning the EU's relative surplus position actually strengthened despite the absolute decline in the balance. The net import reliance — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — deepened from −49.8% in 2022 to −54.0% in 2025, having reached −80.7% at its most extreme in 2023.

Production volumes declined but total value held steady

EU production of road tractors in mass terms fell from 280,000 tonnes (2022) to 200,000 tonnes (2025), a decline of 28.6%. Yet the production value was EUR 16,000 million in both years (dipping to EUR 14,000 million at its lowest point). This implies a substantial increase in the average value per tonne of output — from approximately EUR 57,100/t to EUR 80,000/t — consistent with the industry shifting towards more technologically advanced and higher-priced vehicles.

2. Geographic Reorientation of EU Trade Flows

Turkey remained the EU's dominant bilateral partner but with a declining trajectory

Turkey was the EU's single largest partner on both the import and export sides in value terms. On the import side, flows from Turkey fell 39.6%, from EUR 1,257 million in 2022 to EUR 759 million in 2025. On the export side, EU shipments to Turkey declined 15.6%, from EUR 1,370 million to EUR 1,156 million. The asymmetry is noteworthy: Turkey's share of EU imports fell much more sharply than its share of EU exports, narrowing the bilateral trade gap.

Source: Top partners by value

Export markets in Eastern Europe and Southern Africa contracted sharply while Gulf markets expanded

Several of the EU's traditional export destinations experienced steep declines. Exports to Ukraine fell by 58.9% (from EUR 420 million to EUR 173 million), almost certainly reflecting the disruption caused by the ongoing conflict. South African imports of EU tractors also collapsed by 57.4% (from EUR 717 million to EUR 305 million). By contrast, Gulf Cooperation Council markets absorbed significantly more EU output: the United Arab Emirates more than doubled its intake to EUR 347 million, and Jordan grew by 59.7% to EUR 184 million. On the import side, the United Kingdom more than doubled its exports to the EU (from EUR 38 million to EUR 77 million), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade normalisation and the development of the UK's own supply chains.

Within the EU, Germany remained the largest trader but lost ground to France and Belgium

Germany was the EU's top exporter, accounting for EUR 2,100 million in 2022, but this fell by 32.4% to EUR 1,421 million by 2025. The Netherlands, the second-largest exporter, declined by 27.3%. Meanwhile, France grew by 27.9% (from EUR 862 million to EUR 1,103 million) and Belgium by 27.1% (from EUR 748 million to EUR 950 million), suggesting a partial redistribution of export capacity within the bloc. Specialisation data for 2025 confirms this shift: Sweden (RSCA of 0.47, RCA of 2.78), Belgium (RSCA 0.34, RCA 2.02), and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.28, RCA 1.78) were the EU members with the strongest revealed comparative advantage in this product.

Import concentration fell while export concentration remained stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined from 8,607 in 2022 to 7,100 in 2025 (−17.5%), indicating that the EU's import base became somewhat more diversified, partly because Turkey's dominant share shrank. For exports, the HHI was low and essentially flat (820 to 845), consistent with the EU selling to a wide range of global markets with no single destination dominating.

3. New Vehicle Exports Decline While Used Exports Surge

New diesel road tractor exports fell dramatically by unit count

One of the most striking developments in the data is the divergent trajectory of new versus used vehicle exports. The product segment breakdown reveals that the supplementary unit count (number of vehicles) of new tractors (CN 87012110) exported from the EU collapsed from 221,818 units in 2022 to just 56,011 units in 2025 — a decline of 74.7%. Over the same period, the mass of new vehicles exported fell from 652,604 tonnes to 470,809 tonnes (−27.9%), meaning that the average weight per new vehicle exported increased from approximately 2.9 tonnes to 8.4 tonnes. This suggests the new vehicles that continued to be exported were disproportionately heavier, higher-value units — potentially reflecting a market shift towards premium or long-haul configurations.

Used vehicle exports surged to become the majority by vehicle count

In sharp contrast, the number of used tractors (CN 87012190) exported more than doubled, rising from 85,338 units in 2022 to 176,690 units in 2025 (+107.1%). By 2025, used vehicles accounted for 75.9% of all EU road tractor exports by unit count, up from just 27.8% in 2022. In mass terms the increase was more modest (from 664,815 tonnes to 764,716 tonnes, or +15.0%), implying that the average used export became lighter over time — from approximately 7.8 tonnes per unit in 2022 to 4.3 tonnes in 2025 — possibly indicating that older, smaller tractors were being channelled to developing-country markets.

Source: Product segment breakdown

Unit values diverged: new vehicles became more expensive, used vehicles cheaper

The price per tonne of exported new tractors rose from EUR 10,122/t in 2022 to EUR 11,719/t in 2025 (+15.8%), while the price per tonne of used tractors fell from EUR 2,831/t to EUR 2,082/t (−26.4%). This divergence is consistent with new vehicles incorporating more advanced emissions technology (Euro VI and forthcoming standards), autonomous driving features, and alternative powertrain components that raise their unit cost, while used vehicles — being older and less technologically equipped — face price erosion as supply from fleet renewals increases. On the import side, a similar trend was visible for new vehicles: the price per tonne rose from EUR 9,602/t to EUR 11,777/t (+22.7%), reinforcing the interpretation that the overall new-vehicle market was moving upmarket.

The import side showed a parallel decline in new vehicle volumes

EU imports of new tractors by mass fell from 134,254 tonnes in 2022 to 70,082 tonnes in 2025 (−47.8%), while used tractor imports remained relatively stable in mass (20,509 to 24,175 tonnes). In supplementary-unit terms, the import data for 2022 shows an anomalously high count of 120,058 used vehicles alongside a mass of only 20,509 tonnes, implying an average of just 171 kg per unit — far below the realistic weight of a road tractor. This figure dropped sharply to 3,359 units in 2023, suggesting either a one-off data reporting artefact or a bulk classification event in 2022. From 2023 onward, used import unit counts stabilised between roughly 2,900 and 3,700 units, with average masses of 7.8–8.4 tonnes per unit — consistent with actual road tractors.

Conclusion

Between 2022 and 2025, the EU's road tractor sector (CN 870121) experienced a combination of cyclical decline and structural transformation. Trade volumes fell across the board, with the EU's exports declining by 16.2% in value and imports by 33.2%, preserving the bloc's large net-export surplus at around EUR 6.2 billion by 2025.

Three dynamics stand out. First, the EU's export geography is shifting: traditional markets in Ukraine and South Africa contracted sharply, while Gulf states — particularly the United Arab Emirates and Jordan — absorbed significantly more EU output. Turkey, the single largest bilateral partner, declined on both sides of the ledger. Second, the intra-EU distribution of export capacity is evolving, with France and Belgium gaining share at the expense of Germany and the Netherlands. Third, and most distinctively, the market is undergoing a quiet structural shift from new to used vehicle exports: by 2025, used tractors accounted for over three-quarters of EU exports by unit count, even as new vehicles became heavier and more expensive per tonne.

These trends likely reflect a confluence of factors: tightening emissions regulations incentivising fleet renewal (generating used-vehicle supply), geopolitical disruption in Eastern Europe, shifting infrastructure demand in the Middle East and Africa, and the premiumisation of new diesel tractors as the industry navigates the long-term transition towards alternative powertrains. The coming years will reveal whether these patterns consolidate or reverse as the EU implements further decarbonisation targets for heavy-duty vehicles.