Market evolution: Semi-trailer tractors (CN 87012110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in new diesel-powered road tractors for semi-trailers (customs code 87012110) from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on identifying the primary trends in trade value, volume, and pricing, as well as shifts in the main trading partners. The EU market for this product is characterized by a significant structural trade surplus, with exports vastly exceeding imports. However, the period under review has been marked by a general contraction in trade volumes, accompanied by a notable increase in average unit values, suggesting a market shift towards higher-value vehicles. The data reveals a period of adjustment and reconfiguration in EU trade flows for this sector.

1. A Broad-Based Contraction in Trade Volumes, Marked by a Severe Export Slump

The period 2022–2025 saw a substantial decline in the physical quantity of semi-trailer tractors traded by the EU with non-EU partners. This contraction was more pronounced in exports than imports, indicating challenges for EU manufacturers in foreign markets.

Export volumes fell dramatically, while import volumes also declined significantly.

EU exports of these tractors experienced a severe decline in both mass (tonnes) and the number of units shipped. The net mass exported fell by 27.9%, and the count of individual vehicles (supplementary quantity) plunged by 74.7% between the first and last available years. This drop in unit count far outpaces the decline in mass, suggesting a shift in the mix of exports towards heavier or more premium models, or the exit of EU producers from certain volume segments. Imports also contracted, with mass down 47.8% and the number of units down 22.7%, indicating softer internal EU demand or increased domestic sourcing.

Source: EU Trade Overview for CN 87012110

The value of exports remained relatively more resilient than volume, highlighting rising unit values.

Despite the severe drop in volume, the decline in the total value of exports was more moderate at 16.5% (from €6.6 billion to €5.5 billion). This resilience is explained by a significant increase in the average price per tonne exported (up 15.8%) and a very strong increase in the price per unit (up 230.8%). Similarly, import values fell less sharply (-36.0%) than import volumes, with unit prices rising by 22.6%. This pattern indicates that while fewer tractors were traded, each unit traded was considerably more valuable, reflecting inflationary pressures, a shift to more expensive models, or the impact of stricter emission standards.

Source: EU Trade Overview for CN 87012110

2. A Restructuring of Trade Partners and Internal EU Specialization

The decline in trade was not uniform across partners. The data shows a reconfiguration of the EU's export and import relationships, alongside a clear internal hierarchy of specialization among member states.

Traditional export markets contracted sharply, while new geographic focuses emerged.

Several key non-EU destinations for EU tractors saw dramatic declines in value. Exports to South Africa fell by 57.4%, to Saudi Arabia by 46.2%, and to Australia by 65.4%. In contrast, exports to the United Arab Emirates surged by 162.8%, and those to Morocco grew by 30.1%. On the import side, the EU's heavy reliance on Türkiye continued, though its share declined (-39.6%). A noteworthy shift was the strong growth in imports from the United Kingdom (+223.7%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade realignment and the UK's significant role as a production hub for vehicles sold into the EU.

Source: Top EU Trade Partners for CN 87012110

Within the EU, production and export capacity is highly concentrated, led by Germany.

The EU's internal production of semi-trailer tractors is concentrated in a few member states, as shown by specialisation indexes. Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and Poland exhibit the highest relative specialisation in this product's export. This is mirrored in the export figures, where Germany is the dominant exporter (value fell from €1.72 billion to €1.10 billion), followed by the Netherlands and Sweden. The import side is led by Germany, France, and Poland, though all top importers saw significant declines, with Poland's imports falling by 60.5%.

Source: EU Market Specialisation for CN 87012110

3. Price Increases, Stable Surpluses, and Moderate Market Volatility

Amidst falling volumes, the market has seen price inflation and a consolidation of the EU's trade surplus. Volatility in trade values was present but no singular, extreme shock dominated the period.

Unit prices have increased substantially, though trends diverge between exports and imports.

The rise in export unit prices (per piece) has been extraordinary (+230.8%), far outstripping the rise in import unit prices (-17.1%). This suggests EU exporters have successfully moved upmarket, selling more expensive, technologically advanced, or better-equipped tractors. The decline in the import unit price could reflect a change in the model mix imported or pricing pressures on suppliers to the EU. EU production value remained stable at €16 billion despite a 28.6% drop in production volume (to 200,000 units), further corroborating the trend of higher-value output.

The EU's structural trade surplus has remained robust.

The EU consistently maintains a large positive trade balance in this sector. While the surplus shrank from €5.32 billion to €4.69 billion (-11.7%), it remains enormous relative to the trade value. This confirms the EU's position as a net exporter and a dominant global producer. The net import reliance is deeply negative (-54.0%), underscoring this export orientation.

Trade volatility was moderate and partner-specific, with no major system-wide shocks detected.

Volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), differed by partner. Import sources showed high volatility from Brazil (CV=0.95) and Serbia (CV=0.81), likely due to small, irregular shipments. On the export side, Australia (CV=0.48) and Saudi Arabia (CV=0.43) exhibited relatively high volatility, indicating less stable demand. Core partners like the UK and Türkiye showed lower volatility (CV < 0.20). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports remained high (>8500), confirming a concentrated import base (primarily Türkiye), while the export market is much more diversified (HHI ~1100). No major, period-defining trade shocks were identified.

Conclusion

The EU market for new diesel semi-trailer tractors (CN 87012110) between 2015 and 2025 underwent a significant contraction in trade volumes, particularly on the export side. However, this period of adjustment was characterized by a decisive shift towards higher-value vehicles, as evidenced by surging unit prices and stable production values despite falling unit counts. The EU's fundamental position as a net exporter remained unshaken, with a substantial trade surplus. The landscape of trading partners is evolving, with declines in some traditional markets and growth in others like the UAE. Internally, production and export capacity are heavily concentrated in a core of Western European nations. Overall, the data paints a picture of a mature industry adapting to market pressures by focusing on premium, higher-margin products, though it faces challenges of demand volatility in specific overseas markets.