Market evolution: Agricultural tractors (CN 870193) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in tractors with engine power between 37 kW and 75 kW (excluding specialized types) over the 2017–2025 period. The analysis reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade position. Previously a net exporter, the EU has shifted to become a substantial net importer, with its trade balance swinging from a surplus of €184 million in 2017 to a deficit of over €301 million in 2025. This period has been characterized by surging import volumes, particularly from emerging economies, rising unit values, and increasing import market concentration, reshaping the competitive landscape for this segment of the agricultural machinery market.

1. From Net Exporter to Net Importer: A Fundamental Shift in the Trade Balance

The most striking development over the period is the reversal of the EU's trade flow. The bloc's trade balance in this tractor segment has undergone a dramatic deterioration.

The Collapse of the Export Surplus

The EU entered the period as a net exporter in value terms. In 2017, exports exceeded imports by €184 million. However, this surplus eroded rapidly and reversed into a persistent deficit from 2022 onwards. By 2025, the trade balance had reached -€301 million, representing a cumulative decline of over 263%.

The Drivers: Soaring Imports vs. Declining Exports

This reversal is driven by two concurrent trends: a surge in the value of imports and a stagnation or decline in export values.

• Imports: The value of EU imports nearly doubled, rising from €375 million in 2017 to €736 million in 2025 (a 96% increase). The physical volume (in tonnes) grew more modestly by 19%, but the number of imported units surged by 167%, from 23,137 to 61,826 units. This indicates that the EU is importing a much higher quantity of lighter or smaller tractors within this power band.
• Exports: In contrast, export values fell by 22%, from €559 million to €434 million. The export volume (in tonnes) fell even more sharply by 46%. While the number of exported units increased by 15%, this was insufficient to offset the decline in volume and value, suggesting a shift in the type of tractors being exported.

2. A Market in Transition: Price Inflation, Shifting Partners, and Industrial Strategy

The raw trade data masks underlying structural changes in pricing, competitive dynamics, and the location of production within the EU.

Rising Unit Values Reflect a Shift in Product Mix

Both import and export prices per tonne have increased significantly, pointing to inflation and/or a shift towards higher-value tractors.

• The average export price per tonne rose from €6,287 in 2017 to €9,126 in 2025 (+45%).
• The average import price per tonne climbed even more steeply, from €5,894 to €9,733 (+65%).
• Conversely, the price per imported unit fell from €16,186 to €11,896 (-26.5%), reinforcing the narrative that the surge in import quantity is driven by less expensive, possibly more standardized, tractor models.

Diverging Fortunes of Key Trading Partners

The geographic landscape of trade has changed dramatically.

Industrial Specialisation within the EU

Production data shows the EU's industrial capacity remained relatively stable in unit terms (from ~119,700 units in 2017 to ~116,700 in 2025), but its value grew by 21% to €7.77 billion. This aligns with the rising export prices. Analysis of specialisation reveals Italy remains the most specialised EU producer (RCA of 5.66), but countries like Slovenia, Finland, and Bulgaria also show strong specialisation, indicating a diversified production base across the bloc.

3. Volatility, Concentration, and Emerging Vulnerabilities

The new trade configuration introduces different risk profiles and market dynamics.

Import Supply is Becoming More Concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration increased by 57%, from 1,351 to 2,120. A rising HHI indicates growing reliance on a smaller number of supplier countries. This trend is largely fueled by the dominant growth of Türkiye and China. While the EU benefits from competition, this concentration could increase supply chain vulnerability.

Export Markets Show Higher Stability

In contrast, the HHI for exports increased only slightly by 17%. The coefficient of variation for key export partners like the USA (0.28) and Switzerland (0.23) is lower than for many import partners, suggesting more stable, established relationships.

Identified Trade Shocks

The volatility analysis detected several significant shocks in export flows, notably price spikes in Egypt (+65%) and Morocco (+49%) in 2023, and a near-total collapse in exports to Turkmenistan in 2022. These events highlight the sensitivity of the EU's export earnings to political and economic instability in third-country markets.

Conclusion

The period 2017–2025 was transformative for the EU's trade in medium-power agricultural tractors. The market evolved from one of net self-sufficiency to one of significant external dependence, driven by a powerful surge in imports from Türkiye and a phenomenal rise from China. This shift occurred alongside a general inflation in tractor prices and a strategic reorientation of the EU's own export profile away from volume and towards higher-value units, as evidenced by rising export prices despite falling tonnage.

Looking ahead, the increased concentration of imports poses a strategic question for the EU. While competitive imports benefit farmers, policymakers and the European machinery industry will need to monitor supply chain resilience and the competitive position of domestic producers, particularly Italy, whose export decline has been the primary driver of the EU's deteriorating trade balance.