Market evolution: Reinforced plastic hoses (CN 391739) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in flexible tubes, pipes and hoses of plastics, reinforced or otherwise combined with other materials (excluding high-pressure hoses with burst pressure ≥ 27.6 MPa), classified under CN 391739, over the period 2015–2025. The product sits within chapter 39 (Plastics and articles thereof) and corresponds to PRODCOM code 22.21.29.50. Over the decade, the EU reinforced plastic hose market underwent significant structural change: import growth far outstripped export growth, the traditional trade surplus narrowed, and geopolitical disruptions — notably sanctions on Russia and post-pandemic supply chain shifts — reshaped trading relationships. At the same time, EU domestic production value more than tripled, and the bloc's export propensity and trade intensity both roughly doubled, signalling an increasingly globally integrated industry.

1. Imports surged faster than exports, compressing the EU's trade surplus

EU export values nearly doubled while import values more than doubled

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of reinforced plastic hoses to non-EU countries rose from €453 million to €813 million, an increase of +79.6% in value. However, over the same period, EU imports surged from €271 million to €682 million, a rise of +151.7%. Import growth thus ran at nearly double the rate of export growth, fundamentally altering the trade balance.

Export quantity stagnated relative to value, revealing strong price inflation

A striking feature of the period is the divergence between volume and value trends. EU export quantities grew only modestly, from 73,005 tonnes to 78,308 tonnes (+7.3%), having peaked at 97,417 tonnes. In contrast, unit export prices climbed from €6,199/t to €10,297/t (+66.1%), suggesting that the value gains were largely price-driven rather than volume-driven. For imports, the volume increase was more pronounced: quantities rose from 39,314 tonnes to 81,805 tonnes (+108.1%), while import prices increased from €6,886/t to €8,329/t (+21.0%). This means that much of the import value growth came from genuine volume expansion — a structural shift in the EU's sourcing of these products.

The trade surplus narrowed from €182 million to €131 million

The EU's net trade position remained positive throughout the period — the EU stayed a net exporter — but the surplus shrank by 27.9%, from €182 million to €131 million. It peaked at €320 million, likely around 2021–2022, before declining sharply. Net import reliance (which is negative when the EU is a net exporter) moved from −4.0% to −9.8%, indicating that the EU remained self-sufficient in this product category but that its competitive margin over the rest of the world was diminishing in relative terms. The worst reading of −23.3% (at some mid-period point) suggests the EU was at its strongest as a net exporter around 2021–2022 before the recent import surge eroded that position.

2. Geopolitical shocks and emerging suppliers reconfigured the EU's trade geography

The collapse of EU exports to Russia is the single most dramatic trade event in this period

EU exports to the Russian Federation plummeted from €45 million in 2015 to just €82,130 in 2025 — a decline of 99.8%. Russia had been a top-five export destination at the start of the period. This collapse is consistent with the successive rounds of EU sanctions imposed on Russia from 2022 onwards following the invasion of Ukraine. The coefficient of variation for Russia-bound exports stands at 0.41, confirming the high volatility associated with this trajectory. Some of this lost trade was likely redirected to neighbouring markets such as Morocco (+232.8%, from €18M to €60M) and other non-sanctioned destinations.

China emerged as the EU's dominant import supplier, growing by over 200%

China's share of EU imports expanded dramatically: from €53 million in 2015 to €167 million in 2025 (+216.4%). China is now the EU's largest single import origin for this product, ahead of the United States (€121M) and Switzerland (€83M). Notably, China-sourced imports showed the second-highest volatility among major import partners (CV = 0.39), reflecting both rapid growth and some year-to-year swings, likely linked to post-COVID supply chain disruptions and shipping cost fluctuations in 2020–2022.

The United Arab Emirates emerged from near-zero to a significant supplier

Perhaps the most striking individual shift involves the UAE, which went from exporting just €53,490 worth of reinforced plastic hoses to the EU in 2015 to €23 million in 2025. This is a growth of over 43,000% and reflects the emergence of the UAE as a re-export hub, likely serving as a conduit for goods manufactured in Asia. The UAE has the highest coefficient of variation (1.00) of any major partner, indicating highly erratic trade flows — a pattern consistent with a transit or re-export role rather than stable, established supply chains.

Brexit did not derail UK–EU trade in this category; both flows grew

The United Kingdom is the EU's second-largest export destination (€94M, +111.5%) and also a growing import source (€68M, +130.4%). Despite Brexit and the introduction of customs formalities from January 2021, bilateral trade in this product category appears to have deepened rather than weakened. This is consistent with the high degree of industrial integration between EU and UK plastics manufacturers and the essential nature of reinforced hoses in supply chains (automotive, construction, agriculture) where alternative sourcing is not easily found.

EU Member States show divergent performance as importers and exporters

Among EU Member States, Germany remains the dominant actor in both directions: it accounts for the largest share of extra-EU exports (€299M, +61.7%) and imports (€174M, +133.7%). Spain and the Netherlands saw the fastest export growth (both +300%+). On the import side, Ireland stands out with a +661% increase (from €9M to €65M), and Spain also surged (+313.9%). Italy, despite being the most specialised producer (RCA of 2.02, RSCA of 0.34), saw only moderate export growth (+30.3%), potentially reflecting market saturation or shifting competitive dynamics.

3. The EU's trade openness doubled, driven by rising export propensity and import dependence

Trade intensity roughly doubled, signalling deepening global integration

The trade intensity ratio — defined as the sum of extra-EU imports and exports divided by domestic production — rose from 25.4% in 2015 to 51.1% in 2025, an increase of 101.2%. This means that by 2025, more than half of the EU's production value in this category was linked to extra-EU trade flows. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew even faster, from 16.2% to 37.2% (+130.1%). These figures indicate that the EU plastics hose industry has become significantly more export-oriented over the decade, even as it faces greater import competition.

EU production value grew by 201% but volume growth was more modest

EU domestic production expanded from 268 million kg to 485 million kg in quantity (+81%) and from €732 million to €2,205 million in value (+201.2%). The much larger increase in value relative to quantity implies a near-tripling of average production unit values, reflecting both product mix upgrading (more specialised, higher-value hoses) and general price inflation in raw materials and energy costs over the period. Production value peaked at €2,400 million and quantity at 886 million kg, suggesting that 2025 values are below recent peaks — potentially a sign of demand softening or cyclical adjustment.

Import concentration in volume terms has increased even as value concentration declined

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value decreased slightly from 1,376 to 1,317 (−4.3%), suggesting a modest diversification of suppliers in value terms. However, the HHI for import volumes increased from 1,723 to 2,308 (+34.0%), indicating that the physical import basket has become more concentrated — i.e., fewer supplier countries now account for a larger share of import tonnage. China's dominant role in driving volume growth is likely the primary explanation. On the export side, concentration remained low and stable (HHI by value ~578–604), confirming that the EU distributes its exports broadly across many partners. The most specialised EU producers in 2025 were Italy (RSCA 0.34), Slovenia (0.31), Bulgaria (0.23), Germany (0.22), and Czechia (0.14).

Export price shocks hit select third-country markets in 2022–2023

Volatility analysis and shock detection identified several abnormal price events in EU exports during 2022–2023. The most significant were:

These shocks coincide with the post-pandemic inflationary period and, in the case of Ukraine, the onset of the war — which disrupted logistics and increased demand for reconstruction-related materials. While these are relatively small markets (value shares of 0.7–2.8%), the severity of the price anomalies suggests that global supply chain stress and energy cost pass-through were particularly acute in these destination markets. The Ukraine shock (with a value share of 2.8%) is also likely related to EU export surges in support of Ukraine's infrastructure resilience.

Conclusion

The EU reinforced plastic hose market (CN 391739) evolved substantially between 2015 and 2025. The most defining trend was the asymmetric growth of trade flows: while EU exports grew in value terms (driven largely by price increases), imports more than doubled in volume, propelled by China's emergence as the dominant supplier and the rapid growth of US, UK, and UAE-origin imports. The EU's trade surplus narrowed from €182 million to €131 million, though the bloc remained a net exporter throughout. Geopolitical disruptions — most notably the near-total cessation of exports to Russia following EU sanctions — reshaped the EU's export geography, redirecting flows toward North Africa and other non-sanctioned markets. Simultaneously, EU domestic production value tripled and the industry became markedly more export-oriented, with trade intensity rising from 25% to 51% of production. The growing divergence between import concentration by volume (rising) and by value (declining) deserves monitoring, as it signals a deepening reliance on a smaller number of high-volume suppliers — principally China — even as the nominal diversification of import values appears stable. Overall, the reinforced plastic hose sector has become more globally integrated, more exposed to third-country competition, and more sensitive to geopolitical risk than it was at the start of the decade.