Market evolution: Polyethylene pipes (CN 391721) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in rigid polyethylene pipes and tubes (Customs code 391721) from 2015 to 2025. Over the decade, the EU's trade position in this critical infrastructure product has undergone a significant structural transformation. While the EU maintains a robust production base and remains a net exporter in value terms, the period is characterised by a dramatic surge in import volumes, a consequent erosion of the trade surplus, and a fundamental reconfiguration of sourcing and destination patterns. The dynamics point towards a combination of strong domestic demand, shifting cost competitiveness, and geopolitical realignments.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Net Exporter Status

The most pronounced trend in the 2015–2025 period is the rapid growth of EU imports, which has outpaced exports and significantly narrowed the trade surplus. This shift signals changing cost dynamics and supply chain adaptations.

Import Value More Than Doubles: EU imports of polyethylene pipes surged by 119% in value, rising from EUR 119.6 million in 2015 to EUR 261.9 million in 2025. Import volumes grew even more sharply, increasing by 192% from 32,873 tonnes to 95,936 tonnes over the same period (View trade overview).
Export Growth Modest and Volume-Limited: In contrast, export value increased only marginally by 2% (from EUR 301.2m to EUR 307.1m). More tellingly, export volumes declined by 11.5%, indicating that the slight value increase was driven entirely by higher prices (View trade overview).
Collapse of the Trade Surplus: As a result, the EU's trade balance in this product deteriorated dramatically. The surplus shrank by 75%, falling from EUR 181.6 million in 2015 to just EUR 45.2 million in 2025. This trajectory underscores the EU's growing import dependency to meet internal demand (View trade overview).

2. Geographic Realignment: From East to Southeast and Switzerland

The geographic landscape of both imports and exports has been reshaped, with Western Balkan and Turkish suppliers gaining prominence at the expense of traditional Eastern European partners.

Diversification and Rise of New Import Sources: Import concentration (HHI) fell by 43%, indicating a diversification away from top suppliers. While Switzerland and the United Kingdom remained the largest sources by value, their share was diluted by explosive growth from new partners (View concentration data).
Türkiye and Serbia as Strategic Suppliers: The most dramatic shifts occurred with Türkiye (imports +1,116%) and Serbia (+788%). By 2025, Türkiye was the fourth-largest importer into the EU with EUR 40.3 million, having been a minor player in 2015. This reflects their cost-competitive manufacturing and geographic proximity (View top partners).
Collapse of EU Exports to Russia: Conversely, EU exports to the Russian Federation fell to nearly zero (from EUR 15.2m in 2015 to EUR 6,535 in 2025), a clear consequence of geopolitical sanctions and trade disruptions following 2022. The United States became a more valuable export destination, growing by 132% (View top partners).

3. Domestic Dynamics: Production Growth Amidst Shifting Member State Roles

Despite rising imports, EU production expanded substantially, highlighting a market growing in size but with changing internal competitive advantages and consumption patterns.

Strong Production Expansion: EU production value nearly doubled (+98%), increasing from EUR 1.6 billion in 2015 to EUR 3.18 billion in 2025. Production volumes also grew by 46% to 1.22 million tonnes (View production volumes). This indicates robust demand, likely driven by infrastructure renewal and water management projects.
Internal Specialisation Patterns: Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a clear division of labour. Baltic states (Latvia, Estonia) and Poland show high revealed comparative advantage (RCA), suggesting they are specialised net exporters. In contrast, large economies like France and Ireland are net importers in this sector, reflecting their large internal consumption outstripping domestic capacity (View specialisation data).
Price Divergence in Segments: A notable intra-product development occurred. The price of the "seamless" pipe category (CN 39172110) imported by the EU fell significantly, from EUR 3,236/t to EUR 2,281/t, while the price of other rigid pipes (CN 39172190) remained higher. This suggests changing sourcing strategies for different technical specifications (View product breakdown).

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 marks a structural shift for the EU in the polyethylene pipe market. The Union has transitioned from a position of comfortable net exporter to a more balanced, import-dependent status. This evolution is driven by immense growth in internal demand, which domestic production—though expanding—could not fully cover at competitive prices. Consequently, the EU has actively diversified its import sources, strengthening trade links with Western Balkan and Turkish suppliers while retreating from the Russian market. The resilience of the EU's own production base, particularly in Eastern Europe, and its pivot towards higher-value export markets like the US, suggest an industry adapting to a new competitive landscape. The key trend is clear: the EU's role in this global trade flow is becoming that of a large, growing consumer as much as a producer, reshaping its partnerships accordingly.