Market evolution: Plastic rigid pipes and tubes (CN 391729) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in rigid tubes, pipes and hoses of plastics (excluding those of polymers of ethylene, propylene and vinyl chloride) under Combined Nomenclature code 391729. Covering the period from 2015 to 2025, the analysis draws on trade flows with non-EU partners, production data, specialisation indices, and concentration measures. Over this decade, EU domestic production in volume terms grew by 61.0% (from 199 kt to 320 kt) and in value terms by 136.2% (from €593 M to €1,400 M). Despite this expansion, the trade profile shifted in ways that reveal structural change: exports became increasingly price-driven rather than volume-driven, imports surged from a new set of Mediterranean and Balkan partners, and the centre of gravity of EU production and export capacity moved decisively toward Central and Eastern Europe.

1. A Diverging Trajectory: Export Price Growth Versus Import Volume Surge

The most striking macro-level finding is the diverging evolution of EU exports and imports. Exports grew modestly in value but lost significant volume, while imports surged in both dimensions. This divergence reshaped the EU's trade balance over the decade.

1.1 Exports: fewer tonnes at much higher prices

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export value rose by 23.5%, from €283.4 M to €350.0 M. However, this headline figure masks a deeper shift: export volume fell by 24.7%, from 44.0 kt to 33.2 kt, while the average export price jumped by 63.9%, from €6,440/t to €10,553/t. The export value peaked at €408.7 M and the price at €11,665/t in an intermediate year (likely 2022, consistent with the broader commodity and energy price spike), before retreating. The EU thus increasingly exported fewer physical units but at substantially higher unit values — a pattern consistent with a shift toward higher-specification or specialty products.

1.2 Imports: rapid growth in both volume and value

In contrast, imports expanded dramatically in both volume and value. Import value grew by 80.9%, from €165.4 M to €299.2 M, while import volume surged by 75.4%, from 22.0 kt to 38.5 kt. Crucially, the import unit price rose only marginally (+3.1%, from €7,529/t to €7,762/t), suggesting that the import expansion was driven primarily by growing quantities rather than price inflation. This is a fundamentally different dynamic from exports: while the EU is moving upmarket in its export profile, it is sourcing increasing volumes of relatively standardised products from third countries.

1.3 A trade surplus under pressure

Because imports grew far more rapidly than exports, the EU's trade surplus in this product shrank by 56.9%, from €118.0 M to €50.9 M. The surplus had reached a peak of €132.4 M in an intermediate year before the recent import surge narrowed it to its decade-low in 2025. The EU remains a net exporter, but net import reliance, which stood at −3.1% in 2015, reached −6.0% in 2025 (a more negative value indicates stronger net exporting). The seeming contradiction — a shrinking trade surplus alongside a more negative net import reliance ratio — is explained by the even faster growth of domestic production (€1,400 M in 2025). Relative to the enlarged production base, the net export position has not deteriorated as much as the raw trade balance suggests.

2. The Mediterranean and Balkan Pivot: A Geographic Reorientation of EU Imports

Behind the aggregate import surge lies a dramatic reorientation of sourcing geography. While the United Kingdom — historically the EU's largest import partner for this product — lost ground, a group of Mediterranean and Western Balkan countries emerged as dominant suppliers. This shift concentrated the import market and raised new questions about supply-chain diversification.

2.1 Tunisia, Serbia and Türkiye: the new import powerhouses

The three fastest-growing import partners share a common profile: proximity to the EU, preferential trade access, and competitive labour costs. Imports from Tunisia surged by 498.7%, from €14.3 M to €85.4 M, making it the single largest import source by 2025. Imports from Serbia grew by 289.2%, from €13.8 M to €53.5 M, while those from Türkiye rose by 179.1%, from €15.4 M to €42.9 M. Together, these three countries accounted for €181.8 M of EU imports in 2025 — over 60% of total extra-EU imports — up from just €43.4 M (26% of the 2015 total) a decade earlier.

2.2 Declining UK share and modest growth from China

The United Kingdom, which was the EU's largest import partner in 2015 at €34.1 M, saw its shipments decline by 29.1% to €24.2 M. Post-Brexit trade frictions and the shift of manufacturing to lower-cost neighbours likely contributed to this decline. China, despite its global manufacturing scale, saw only a 19.0% increase (from €17.5 M to €20.8 M), suggesting that the geographic proximity and trade preferences enjoyed by Mediterranean and Balkan producers give them a decisive competitive advantage over distant Asian suppliers for this relatively bulky product category.

2.3 Rising import concentration and associated risks

The geographic reorientation came with a significant increase in market concentration. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 47.1%, from 1,053 to 1,549 — crossing the 1,500 threshold that typically marks moderate concentration. Volume-based concentration increased similarly, from 3,345 to 4,497 (+34.5%). This concentration was driven by the rapid growth of Tunisia and Serbia. While these countries benefit from EU trade agreements (Tunisia via the Euro-Mediterranean Agreement, Serbia via the Stabilisation and Association Agreement), the growing dependence on a small number of suppliers introduces vulnerability. Several of these partners also display relatively high trade volatility: Tunisia's coefficient of variation stands at 0.49 and Türkiye's at 0.43, both above the levels observed for traditional Western European partners. Smaller suppliers such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV 1.10) and Egypt (CV 0.88) show even more erratic trade patterns.

3. Eastward Shift: Central Europe's Emergence as the EU's Production and Export Hub

A third major dynamic is the restructuring of the EU's internal production landscape. Central and Eastern European member states have gained a strong revealed specialisation in plastic rigid pipe manufacturing, while Germany has consolidated its position as the bloc's dominant exporter. Meanwhile, several Western European countries have seen their export roles diminish sharply.

3.1 Central and Eastern Europe leads in specialisation

According to the specialisation data for 2025, the five most specialised EU member states in CN 391729 are all in Central or Eastern Europe. Bulgaria tops the ranking with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 and an RCA of 5.93, meaning its export share in this product is nearly six times the EU average. Romania (RSCA 0.67, RCA 5.02), Hungary (RSCA 0.59, RCA 3.86), and Poland (RSCA 0.34, RCA 2.04) follow. These four countries together account for 36.1% of EU production volume in this product, with Poland alone holding 13.6%.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (RSCA −1.00), Croatia (−0.95), Latvia (−0.93), Portugal (−0.90), and Luxembourg (−0.89) show no meaningful specialisation, with near-zero production shares and very low RCA values.

3.2 Germany doubles its exports; Western Europe retreats

Among EU member states, Germany's export growth stands out: exports rose by 107.4%, from €59.7 M to €123.7 M, making Germany by far the EU's largest exporter with over one-third of total extra-EU exports in 2025. Austria also saw strong growth (+79.7%, from €16.8 M to €30.2 M). In contrast, France (−57.8%), Spain (−57.3%), and the Netherlands (−45.7%) experienced steep declines, losing between 45% and 58% of their 2015 export values.

The pattern is clear: export capacity has concentrated in Germany and, to a lesser extent, in Austria and Poland. Italy held roughly stable, while France, Spain, and the Netherlands substantially retreated from international markets. On the import side, France and Italy saw the largest import increases (+119.0% and +148.8% respectively), consistent with a scenario where these countries shifted from production-for-export toward importing from nearby low-cost suppliers.

3.3 Growing international orientation of the sector

The restructuring is also reflected in the sector's increasing trade intensity (the share of total supply accounted for by trade), which rose from 24.0% to 38.5% (+59.9%). Export propensity (exports as a share of domestic production) grew even faster, from 15.0% to 26.0% (+73.5%). The salience score for export propensity reached 97.5 out of 100, indicating that the sector's openness to international markets is now one of its defining characteristics. This heightened internationalisation cuts both ways: it opens market opportunities but also increases exposure to external shocks, as evidenced by the price shock events detected in smaller partner markets such as North Macedonia (a 160% price spike in 2020) and Morocco (a 201% spike in 2017).

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU market for rigid plastic pipes and tubes (CN 391729) has undergone a threefold transformation. First, exports have shifted from a volume-driven to a price-driven model, suggesting that EU producers are moving toward higher-value products while ceding lower-value volume to imports. Second, the geography of EU imports has pivoted sharply toward Tunisia, Serbia and Türkiye — nearby countries with preferential trade access — at the expense of the United Kingdom and, to a lesser extent, China. This pivot has significantly increased import concentration. Third, within the EU itself, Central and Eastern European member states — led by Germany, Poland, Austria, Romania and Hungary — have consolidated their roles as production and export hubs, while several Western European countries have retreated from export markets and increasingly turned to imports.

The net result is a sector that is more trade-intensive, more price-sophisticated on the export side, and more reliant on a concentrated set of nearby import suppliers. While the EU retains a trade surplus and a robust production base, the erosion of the surplus and the rising import concentration suggest that continued monitoring of supply-chain resilience is warranted — particularly in light of the volatility observed among several of the EU's fastest-growing import partners.