Market evolution: Rare gases (CN 280429) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in rare gases excluding argon (customs code 280429) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses helium (CN 28042910) and a grouping of neon, krypton and xenon (CN 28042990) — gases critical to sectors ranging from semiconductor manufacturing and medical imaging to aerospace and fibre optics.

Over the decade, the EU's trade position in rare gases has been reshaped by three converging trends: a dramatic expansion of import volumes driven by helium, a sustained escalation of unit prices across nearly all flows, and a marked shift in the geographic composition of suppliers. The result has been a structural deepening of the EU's import dependence, with the trade deficit widening from €118 million in 2015 to €353 million in 2025.

1. A Deepening Structural Deficit Driven by Helium Imports

The import–export gap has more than tripled in value

The EU's trade balance for rare gases has deteriorated markedly. In 2015, the deficit stood at −€118 million; by 2025 it had widened to −€353 million. Import value rose from €194 million to €481 million (+148%), while export value grew more modestly from €76 million to €128 million (+69%).

Helium accounts for nearly all the import volume surge

The volume growth on the import side is overwhelmingly concentrated in helium. In mass terms, helium imports nearly tripled from 4,796 tonnes in 2015 to 13,835 tonnes in 2025 — a 188% increase. By contrast, neon, krypton and xenon imports remained far smaller (137t to 311t), though they also grew substantially in relative terms.

An interesting divergence appears when comparing mass and volume: while helium import tonnage nearly tripled, the supplementary quantity in cubic metres edged down slightly from 23.6 million m³ to 22.6 million m³. This suggests that the physical form of helium imports has shifted — likely toward denser, liquefied helium — which inflates tonnage without proportionally increasing gas-equivalent volume.

Export volumes have contracted even as values rose

On the export side, total quantity fell from 3,083 tonnes to 1,673 tonnes (−46%), while value still grew thanks to sharply higher unit prices. Helium export volumes held relatively steady (1,312t → 1,282t), but neon/krypton/xenon shipments collapsed from 1,771 tonnes to just 391 tonnes (−78%) — a decline that is closely linked to the disruption of Ukrainian neon supply chains in 2022 and the global repricing that followed.

EU production volumes have fallen sharply

Domestic production data tells a parallel story. According to PRODCOM data, EU rare-gas production volume declined by 45% — from 4.3 billion m³ to 2.35 billion m³ — while production value rose 71% from €148 million to €252 million. This volume-to-value divergence mirrors the trade data and confirms that price appreciation, not output growth, has driven the value increase.

2. Structural Price Escalation Across Product Segments

Export unit prices have roughly tripled over the decade

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sustained rise in export unit prices. The aggregate export price per tonne rose from €24,624 to €76,691 (+211%), with a peak of €87,407/t in 2023. Import prices, by contrast, followed a different trajectory: they rose from €39,289/t to a peak of €63,123/t in 2023 before falling back to €34,015/t in 2025 (−13% versus 2015).

Helium import prices have normalised after a 2023 peak

The helium import price tells a story of cyclical tightness followed by new supply:

Prices peaked in 2023 at nearly €69,400/t before falling back to 2015 levels by 2025. However, the price per cubic metre actually continued to rise (to €20.86/m³), reflecting the compositional shift toward denser, liquefied forms of helium. Meanwhile, helium export prices remain far above import levels at €66,552/t in 2025, suggesting that the EU is re-exporting helium at a significant value premium — likely after purification, liquefaction or integration into higher-value supply chains.

Neon, krypton and xenon prices have surged fivefold on export markets

The price dynamics for neon, krypton and xenon are even more dramatic:

Export prices for this segment rose more than fivefold, driven by acute supply disruption. Ukraine was historically a major supplier of semiconductor-grade neon (a by-product of Russian steel production); the 2022 conflict severely disrupted this supply chain. The price shock to EU imports from China in 2020 (abnormality score 33.1, +220% price shift) foreshadowed the broader tightening. EU export prices to Israel spiked by 444% in 2023, reaching an abnormality score of 215.7 — the most extreme shock event in the dataset.

The EU has become a high-cost exporter relative to its import prices

By 2025, the gap between export and import unit prices has widened substantially. The EU exports rare gases at an average of €76,691/t while importing them at €34,015/t. This 2.3× premium (versus near-parity in 2015 when exports were actually cheaper per tonne) indicates that the EU's export profile is increasingly oriented toward higher-specification, higher-value-added gas products.

3. Shifting Supplier Geographies and Rising Concentration Risk

Qatar and Algeria have become dominant import sources

The geographic composition of EU rare-gas imports has shifted significantly toward Middle Eastern and North African suppliers:

Qatar's rise reflects the country's massive helium production capacity expansions (Qatar is the world's second-largest helium producer). Algeria's growth is linked to its natural gas infrastructure, from which helium is extracted as a by-product. The explosive growth from China (+2,833%) starting from a low base suggests that China has emerged as a new supplier — potentially of neon and krypton — as it builds domestic production capacity in the wake of the 2022 supply disruptions.

Export markets have consolidated around the UK and Switzerland

On the export side, the United Kingdom has become the dominant destination (€18M → €40M, +120%), followed by Switzerland (€6M → €11M, +83%). Exports to the United States have nearly halved (€20M → €10M, −49%), and shipments to Egypt collapsed (€1.1M → €0.1M, −88%). The growing orientation toward the UK may partly reflect post-Brexit trade flows, with the EU serving as a processing and re-export hub for refined gases.

Import concentration has risen, signalling increased supply risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 3,103 to 3,558 (+15%), indicating that supplier concentration has increased. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered "moderately concentrated" by competition authorities; the current level implies meaningful supply risk. Import concentration by volume rose even more sharply (from 3,215 to 4,029, +25%).

Export concentration remains lower (HHI of 1,589 by value) and relatively stable, reflecting the EU's diversified customer base.

Within the EU, France and the Netherlands dominate trade flows

Looking at intra-EU reporters, France is the largest importer (€128M in 2025) and exporter (€41M). The most dramatic shift, however, is in the Netherlands, where imports surged from €1.4 million to €128 million — a 9,394% increase — propelling the country from a marginal player to the second-largest EU importer. This likely reflects the development of new helium handling and distribution infrastructure at Dutch ports. Ireland's imports also grew sharply (€4M → €31M, +674%), possibly linked to the country's large semiconductor manufacturing base.

France, Poland and the Netherlands display the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores in this product, confirming their role as specialised producers or processors within the EU.

Conclusion

The EU's rare-gas trade landscape has undergone a structural transformation over the past decade. The market has shifted from one of relatively balanced flows to one characterised by deepening import dependence, with the net import reliance ratio climbing from 46% to 59% and the trade deficit tripling in value.

Three dynamics stand out. First, helium imports from Qatar and Algeria have surged in volume, reflecting both the EU's growing consumption needs and these countries' capacity expansions. Second, the price environment has been volatile and structurally upward — particularly for neon, krypton and xenon following the 2022 disruption of Ukrainian supply chains — though helium import prices have recently normalised as new supply has come online. Third, rising import concentration (HHI now at 3,558) signals a growing vulnerability to supply shocks, especially given the heavy reliance on a small number of Middle Eastern and North African suppliers.

The EU's domestic production base has contracted in volume terms (−45%), even as the value of production has risen. Combined with the widening export–import price premium, this suggests that the EU is increasingly positioned as a value-adding intermediary — importing raw or semi-processed gases and exporting higher-specification products — rather than as a volume producer. For policymakers concerned with strategic autonomy in critical inputs for semiconductors, healthcare and advanced manufacturing, the data points to a need for continued attention to supply diversification and domestic production capacity.