Market evolution: Hydrogen (CN 280410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Hydrogen (customs code 280410) has emerged over the past decade as a strategic commodity at the intersection of energy policy, industrial decarbonisation, and trade. This report examines the evolution of EU trade in hydrogen with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period, drawing on customs data at annual frequency.

Over this window, the EU's hydrogen trade landscape underwent a marked transformation. While the bloc remained a net exporter throughout, imports surged from a negligible base, export values more than doubled, and the geographic composition of both flows shifted dramatically. The period also saw notable price shocks, changing partner concentration, and growing intra-EU specialisation. The following three sections explore these dynamics in detail.

1. The Explosive Rise of Hydrogen Imports Reshapes the EU's Trade Balance

1.1 Import volumes surged from virtually nothing to tens of thousands of tonnes

The most striking structural shift in the 2015–2025 window is the dramatic growth in EU hydrogen imports by mass. In 2015, the EU imported just 174.5 tonnes of hydrogen from outside the bloc. By 2025, that figure had risen to 57,475 tonnes — an increase of over 32,800%. Import value rose in tandem, from €703,000 in 2015 to €6.79 million in 2025, a gain of 866%.

1.2 The unit price of imported hydrogen collapsed, signalling a fundamental shift in trade composition

Perhaps even more remarkable than the volume growth is the collapse in import prices. The average import price fell from €4,028 per tonne in 2015 to just €118 per tonne in 2025 — a decline of 97%. This price collapse, combined with the explosion in volume, strongly suggests a compositional shift in the type of hydrogen being imported. The early-period trades likely involved small quantities of high-purity, specialised hydrogen (such as fuel-cell grade), while the later period saw the arrival of bulk industrial-grade hydrogen at commodity prices.

This interpretation is reinforced by the supplementary quantity data. Imports measured in cubic metres rose from 1.1 million m³ in 2015 to 2.7 million m³ in 2025 — a 145% increase. The 226-fold increase in mass versus the 2.5-fold increase in volumetric units is consistent with the onset of liquid or compressed-hydrogen imports, which carry far higher mass per cubic metre.

1.3 The trade balance narrowed but the EU remained a net exporter

Despite this import surge, the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period — though it narrowed. The net export surplus fell from €2.98 million in 2015 to €1.83 million in 2025, a 38% decline. Meanwhile, the net import reliance ratio remained negative (indicating net export status), deepening from −11% to −48%, reflecting that export values grew faster in absolute terms than imports. Nonetheless, the direction of travel — rising imports — points to growing external dependence, particularly in volume terms.

2. Geographical Reorientation: The United States Emerges as a Dominant Import Source While Exports Diversify Toward Neighbours

2.1 The United States became the EU's largest hydrogen supplier by a wide margin

In 2015, US hydrogen imports into the EU were negligible at €2,447. By 2025, they had surged to €3.67 million — an increase of nearly 150,000% — making the United States the EU's single largest import partner. This trajectory, which accelerated sharply from around 2020 onwards, is likely linked to the expansion of US hydrogen production capacity and favourable policy incentives (notably the Inflation Reduction Act's clean hydrogen production tax credit).

Norway also emerged as a major supplier, growing from €6,000 to over €1.1 million — an increase of 18,646%. Together, the US and Norway accounted for the bulk of the import surge, likely supplying industrial and potentially "blue" hydrogen from hydrocarbon-based production with carbon capture.

2.2 EU exports remained concentrated in the United Kingdom and European neighbours

On the export side, the United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest external customer, absorbing €5.3 million worth of hydrogen in 2025 (up from €1.87 million in 2015, +183%). Norway, Switzerland, Israel, and Serbia rounded out the top destinations. Notably, Norway and Colombia showed the strongest growth rates among major partners (+475% and +544% respectively), suggesting emerging demand from non-traditional buyers.

2.3 The Netherlands emerged as the EU's hydrogen export hub while Ireland's role reversed

Within the EU, the Netherlands consolidated its position as the dominant exporting Member State, with export values rising from €1.76 million to €5.49 million (+213%). Germany and France also contributed significantly. On the import side, the Netherlands saw a dramatic reversal: imports surged from just €6,628 in 2015 to €3.73 million in 2025 — a 56,186% increase — likely reflecting its role as a major hydrogen import hub with port infrastructure.

Ireland presents an interesting case of role reversal: it was a significant exporter in 2015 (€304,000) but became a marginal one by 2025 (just €801, −99.7%), while its imports grew from €100,000 to €458,000. This suggests a structural shift in Ireland's hydrogen trade position over the decade.

2.4 Import source concentration decreased while export destination concentration increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for import value fell from 4,613 to 3,445 (−25%), indicating that import sources diversified over the period. By contrast, export HHI rose from 2,913 to 4,138 (+42%), reflecting growing concentration toward the United Kingdom and Norway as dominant export destinations. This divergence — more diversified imports but more concentrated exports — creates an asymmetric exposure: the EU is less dependent on any single import supplier than before, but more reliant on a narrow set of export customers.

3. Volatility, Price Shocks, and the Strategic Recalibration of the EU Hydrogen Position

3.1 A pronounced export price shock occurred in 2023, driven by the United Kingdom

The data reveals a significant price shock in EU hydrogen exports centred on 2023, with the United Kingdom identified as the primary source. The abnormality score of 24.0 (the highest in the dataset) and a price shift of +173.8% indicate an extreme deviation from trend. This shock accounted for 66.8% of total export value, underscoring the UK's outsized role.

Israel also experienced a notable export price shock in 2023 (abnormality 20.8, shift +16.0%, value share 14.3%). While smaller in magnitude, this further amplified the 2023 disruption. These events likely reflect the broader energy price turbulence following the 2022 energy crisis, which spilled over into hydrogen markets with a lag as contracts repriced and supply chains adjusted.

On the import side, the most notable shock involved the United States in 2017 (abnormality 14.2, shift +484.8%). Although the percentage shift was large, the absolute value share was 100%, reflecting the fact that US imports had been near-zero before this point — the shock represented the initial establishment of a new trade flow rather than a disruption of an existing one.

3.2 Import volatility was high for the US and Türkiye, while export volatility was more moderate

Volatility analysis by partner shows that US import flows had the highest coefficient of variation (CV = 3.29), followed by Türkiye (CV = 2.75). This high volatility is consistent with the earlier finding that these are newly established, rapidly growing trade flows still finding their structural level. On the export side, the UK showed moderate volatility (CV = 0.45), while Colombia (CV = 1.69) and Nigeria (CV = 2.17) showed much higher instability, reflecting their smaller and less mature trade relationships.

3.3 Specialisation patterns reveal a core hydrogen-exporting cluster within the EU

In 2025, Belgium and the Netherlands stood out as the most specialised EU exporters of hydrogen, with Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.51 and 0.48 respectively. Slovakia also showed strong specialisation (RSCA 0.43). By contrast, Estonia, Lithuania, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania were among the least specialised, with RSCA scores near −1.0, indicating virtually no hydrogen export activity relative to their total trade.

3.4 EU hydrogen production grew in value faster than in volume, mirroring global price trends

EU domestic hydrogen production rose from 5.88 billion m³ in 2015 to 7.20 billion m³ in 2025, a 22.5% increase. However, production value surged from €699 million to €1.67 billion (+138.4%). This divergence — value growing six times faster than volume — reflects the revaluation of hydrogen in the post-2022 energy landscape and the increasing cost of "green" production methods. The export propensity also climbed from 35% to 63%, indicating that the EU was channelling a growing share of production toward external markets.

Conclusion

The EU's hydrogen trade with non-EU countries between 2015 and 2025 was characterised by three overarching dynamics: an explosive growth in imports — particularly from the United States — that fundamentally altered the trade composition; a geographic reorientation toward Anglo-American and Nordic partners on both the import and export sides; and the emergence of price shocks and volatility patterns consistent with a market transitioning from a niche industrial chemical to a strategic energy commodity.

Despite these shifts, the EU maintained its status as a net exporter throughout the period, with the trade balance remaining positive in value terms. The growing export propensity (from 35% to 63%) and rising production value suggest that the EU's hydrogen sector is becoming more outward-facing and economically significant. However, the simultaneous surge in imports — driven by the US's cost advantages and policy incentives — and the increasing concentration of exports toward a narrow set of partners pose questions about long-term trade resilience. The coming years will test whether the EU's own hydrogen strategy can sustain both domestic production growth and its competitive position in an increasingly globalised hydrogen market.