Market evolution: Printed circuits (CN 85340090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in passive printed circuits (CN 85340090) — printed circuits consisting of conductor elements, contacts and other passive elements, excluding those combining passive and active components. Covering the period from 2015 to 2025, the analysis draws on EU-level trade data for imports and exports with non-EU countries, as well as production and concentration indicators. The decade reveals a market shaped by three intertwined dynamics: a striking divergence between trade values and volumes, a significant realignment of sourcing and destination partners, and a measurable decline in the EU's external import dependence — partly driven by a dramatic expansion of domestic production. Together, these trends point to a sector undergoing structural transformation, with implications for supply-chain strategy and industrial policy.

The product's scope is detailed in the scope & definitions section.

1. A Market Growing in Value but Contracting in Volume

1.1 Imports expanded strongly in value while export values grew more modestly

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's total trade in passive printed circuits grew substantially in nominal terms. Import values rose from €848 million to €1,308 million (+54.2%), while export values increased from €241 million to €329 million (+36.7%). The resulting trade deficit widened from −€607 million to −€979 million, a deterioration of 61.1%.

1.2 Export volumes collapsed while import volumes grew only moderately

The most striking feature of the decade lies in the volume-price divergence. Export quantities fell sharply from 4,267 tonnes to just 1,616 tonnes (−62.1%), yet export values rose. The implied unit export price surged from €56,303 per tonne to €203,394 per tonne — a 261% increase. This indicates a clear shift towards higher-value, more specialised export products (or smaller, more complex circuits commanding premium prices), rather than a volume-driven expansion.

By contrast, import volumes rose from 16,020 tonnes to 18,690 tonnes (+16.7%), with unit import prices increasing more moderately from €52,943 to €69,974 per tonne (+32.2%). This suggests that import growth was largely volume-driven, reflecting continued reliance on foreign suppliers for standard-volume production.

1.3 The trade deficit worsened despite rising unit export prices

Despite the impressive appreciation of export unit values — which more than compensated for the volume decline in nominal terms — the trade balance deteriorated significantly. This underscores that the EU remained a structural net importer of passive printed circuits throughout the period. The faster growth of import values (+54.2%) versus export values (+36.7%), combined with the much larger import base, ensured the deficit widened. In value terms, the EU imported roughly four times what it exported in 2025, a ratio barely improved from 2015.

2. Geographic Reorientation: From Asian Volume to Strategic Diversification

2.1 China consolidated its position as the dominant import supplier

A look at trade partners reveals that China remained the EU's primary source of passive printed circuits throughout the decade. Chinese imports rose from €490 million to €688 million (+40.5%), maintaining roughly half of all EU imports by value. China's supply share reflects its role as the world's dominant PCB manufacturing hub, and the moderate increase in value (against even larger total import growth) hints at some price competition from other Asian origins.

2.2 Korea's emergence and the decline of Hong Kong and Taiwan

Perhaps the most notable partner shift was the surge in imports from the Republic of Korea, which grew from €11 million to €52 million — a remarkable +379% increase. This likely reflects the growing presence of Korean electronics and semiconductor firms in European supply chains (e.g., battery and automotive electronics), which pull Korean-origin passive components along with them.

Conversely, imports from both Hong Kong and Taiwan contracted sharply (−57.7% and −59.1% respectively). Hong Kong's decline may partly reflect its diminishing role as an entrepôt for re-exports from mainland China, with trade increasingly routed directly. Taiwan's decline is more surprising given its strong position in global electronics, and could indicate either production relocation or shifting EU sourcing strategies away from Taiwanese passive-circuit suppliers.

2.3 EU export destinations shifted towards the US and nearshore markets

On the export side, the United States remained the top destination (€54M to €62M, +15.0%), while Switzerland grew significantly (+74.8% to €41M). The most dramatic growth was in exports to Morocco, which rose from €1.3 million to €9.5 million (+622%). This is consistent with the expansion of electronics assembly operations in Morocco's Tangier and Casablanca free-trade zones, where European manufacturers increasingly locate production. Exports to Tunisia, by contrast, fell sharply (−66.0%), suggesting some reallocation of nearshore manufacturing capacity.

2.4 Within the EU, Germany anchored trade but newer members gained ground

Looking at EU Member States' trade, Germany was the largest importer (€163M to €167M) and exporter (€68M to €81M) by value. However, several Member States saw striking import growth: Denmark (+154.2%), Spain (+204.5%), and France (+85.3%), suggesting expanding downstream electronics manufacturing in those countries. On the export side, Italy's exports nearly tripled (+203.6% to €27M), while Romania more than doubled (+120.2% to €20M) — consistent with growing PCB assembly capacity in Central and Eastern Europe.

2.5 Import concentration remained high but declined, while exports became more dispersed

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for import concentration (by value) fell from 3,523 to 2,955 (−16.1%), indicating moderate diversification away from a highly concentrated supply base. Nonetheless, an HHI near 3,000 still signals significant dependence on a small number of partners — principally China. Export concentration also declined (from 1,185 to 928, −21.6%), reflecting a broader range of destination markets.

3. A Declining Import Dependence Fuelled by Domestic Production Growth

3.1 The EU's net import reliance fell significantly

A key finding is that the EU's net import reliance for passive printed circuits declined from 26.2% in 2015 to 16.3% in 2025 (−37.7%). At its lowest point, net import reliance even briefly turned negative (−3.1%), meaning the EU temporarily became a net exporter. While this did not persist, the overall trend clearly indicates a reduction in external dependence — a notable development in a product category traditionally associated with Asian dominance.

3.2 EU domestic production surged in both volume and value

The decline in import reliance is closely linked to a dramatic expansion of EU production. Based on PRODCOM data, domestic production (by number of items) grew from 157 million to 600 million units (+282.8%), while production value soared from €875 million to €4.8 billion (+448.4%). The even faster growth of value relative to quantity points to an upward shift in the sophistication and unit value of EU-produced circuits — mirroring the same value-up/volume-down pattern seen in exports.

3.3 Trade intensity and export propensity both declined

The trade intensity of the EU's passive printed circuit market fell from 39.4% to 27.6% (−29.9%), meaning that trade relative to total market size contracted. Similarly, export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — declined from 11.1% to 7.8% (−29.8%). Both trends are consistent with a growing domestic production base absorbing demand that was previously met through imports, while a larger share of EU output is consumed internally rather than exported.

3.4 Specialisation patterns suggest Central and Eastern Europe as a growing production hub

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the most specialised EU producers of passive printed circuits are Slovakia (RSCA 0.79), Estonia (0.75), Bulgaria (0.66), Slovenia (0.50), and Romania (0.50). These Central and Eastern European countries have evidently developed significant competitive advantages in this product category, likely driven by lower labour costs, proximity to automotive OEMs, and targeted industrial investment. The large Western European economies (Germany, France, Italy) show moderate or low specialisation, consistent with their broader, more diversified industrial bases.

3.5 Supply-side volatility remained manageable despite geographic shifts

The volatility analysis shows that imports from China — by far the largest source — were remarkably stable (coefficient of variation of just 0.12), providing a reliable supply anchor. More volatile import flows came from the United Kingdom (CV 0.78), Taiwan (0.53), and the Republic of Korea (0.51). On the export side, flows to the United Kingdom (CV 0.97) and Japan (0.93) were the most volatile, while exports to Switzerland were highly stable (CV 0.09). A notable price shock was detected for EU exports to Hong Kong in 2017, where unit prices surged by 305.8%, possibly reflecting a one-off shipment of high-value specialised circuits or a reclassification effect.

Conclusion

The EU market for passive printed circuits (CN 85340090) has undergone a quiet but significant transformation over 2015–2025. While nominal trade values grew on both the import and export sides, the most revealing story lies beneath these headline figures. Export volumes fell by over 60% even as export values rose — a clear signal that the EU is moving up the value chain, exporting fewer but more expensive, specialised circuits. On the import side, China consolidated its dominance while newer Asian suppliers (notably Korea) gained ground and traditional intermediaries (Hong Kong, Taiwan) receded.

Most importantly, the EU's structural dependence on imports has diminished markedly. Domestic production more than quadrupled in value, net import reliance fell from 26% to 16%, and trade intensity declined — all pointing to a growing capacity to serve domestic demand with locally manufactured products. Central and Eastern European Member States, particularly Slovakia, Estonia, and Romania, have emerged as specialised production hubs within the EU, likely benefiting from nearshoring trends and automotive-electronics demand.

However, the trade deficit remains substantial at nearly €1 billion, and import concentration — while declining — is still dominated by a single country. The EU's strategic autonomy in this product category, while improving, continues to depend heavily on Asian supply chains. The coming years will test whether the current trajectory of domestic production growth and diversification can be sustained amid evolving global trade dynamics and the EU's broader ambitions for semiconductor and electronics sovereignty.