Market evolution: Multilayer printed circuit boards (CN 85340011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in multilayer printed circuit boards (PCBs) under Combined Nomenclature code 85340011 from 2015 to 2025. PCBs are critical components for the electronics industry, integral to everything from consumer devices to industrial equipment. The analysis focuses on the EU's external trade dynamics, identifying major shifts in trade volumes, values, key partners, and the bloc's structural trade position. The data reveals a decade characterized by a growing import dependency, a significant reorientation of supply chains, and a contraction in EU-based production, all set against a backdrop of increasing market volatility.

1. The Consolidation of EU Import Dependency and Supply Chain Concentration

The period from 2015 to 2025 was marked by a substantial increase in the EU's reliance on imported multilayer PCBs, coupled with a sharp consolidation of its sourcing towards Asia.

1.1 Growing Import Reliance and a Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's net import reliance for this product grew significantly, rising from 45.0% in 2015 to 59.6% in 2025—a 32.4% increase. This structural shift is confirmed by the simultaneous rise in trade intensity from 55.2% to 70.5%, indicating that the EU's economy became more intertwined with global supply chains for this component over the decade. Consequently, the trade deficit widened by 45.4%, reaching €2.6 billion by 2025.

Source: Trade Overview, Vulnerability Indicators

1.2 China's Dominance and the Reordering of Key Suppliers

The EU's import market became increasingly concentrated, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value, which rose from 3,900 to 5,801 (a 48.8% increase). This consolidation was driven primarily by China, whose share of EU imports surged by 76.0% in value, growing from €1.26 billion to €2.22 billion. Other traditional suppliers like Taiwan and Hong Kong saw their share decline by over 50%. Notably, Thailand emerged as a significant and fast-growing alternative, with import value more than doubling (+102.7%).

Source: Top Partners

1.3 Price Stability Amid Volume Growth

Despite a 45.3% increase in imported quantity (tonnes) and the growing dominance of China, the average unit price of EU imports remained relatively stable, decreasing only slightly from €49,016 to €47,435 per tonne. This suggests that the expansion in import value was primarily volume-driven, indicating robust demand from EU downstream industries, and that China maintained competitive pricing throughout the period.

2. The Decline of EU Production and Reconfiguration of Export Competitiveness

Contrary to the rising demand implied by import growth, the EU's domestic production of multilayer PCBs contracted significantly, while its export profile shifted towards a more specialized but less dominant role.

2.1 A Contraction in Domestic Production

EU production volumes declined from an estimated 542 million items to 492 million items between 2015 and 2024/2025 (a 9.3% decrease). More strikingly, the value of production fell by 26.1%, from €2.37 billion to €1.75 billion. This divergence indicates a loss of higher-value production within the bloc, as the industry may have shifted towards producing lower-margin goods or relocated capacity.

2.2 A Redefined Export Portfolio with Diminished Overall Weight

While EU export value grew modestly by 11.5% to €331 million, its volume expanded more robustly by 54.6% to 2,815 tonnes. However, this came at the cost of a severe erosion in export unit prices, which plummeted by 27.9% to €117,600 per tonne. This trend, combined with the falling production value, suggests the EU is losing ground in high-value PCB segments.

The export propensity (export share of production) nonetheless grew significantly from 12.8% to 20.8%, indicating that a growing share of the shrinking domestic output was being sent abroad.

2.3 Internal Reconfiguration and New Niche Specializations

The geographic profile of EU exports changed dramatically. The United Kingdom, formerly the top destination, saw its imports from the EU collapse by 75.0%. Meanwhile, several new growth markets emerged:

Source: Top Partners - Exports

Within the EU, export specialization is not uniform. Data on RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) for 2025 shows that Romania, Austria, Spain, and Hungary exhibit strong comparative advantages in this sector, suggesting specialized production clusters have formed in these member states, even as overall EU production declines.

3. Market Volatility, Geopolitical Shocks, and Emerging Vulnerabilities

The 2015–2025 period was not one of linear growth but was punctuated by significant volatility, revealing the EU's growing exposure to external shocks.

3.1 High-Volatility Trade Corridors

Volatility analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), highlights unstable trade links. On the import side, flows with Vietnam (CV: 0.69) and United Kingdom (CV: 0.80) were highly volatile, likely reflecting the disruptions of Brexit and shifting supply patterns in Southeast Asia. For exports, relationships with North Macedonia (CV: 0.76) and the United Kingdom (CV: 0.69) were particularly unstable.

Source: Volatility Bars

3.2 Key Supply Chain Shocks: The 2022 China Price Spike

The most significant shock detected occurred in 2022 for imports from China. A price shock with an abnormality score of 31.7 (on a scale where 2.0 is typically significant) was recorded, with a 20.0% price shift. Given that China accounted for 92.3% of EU import value that year, this event likely had a major impact on input costs for European electronics manufacturers, underscoring the risk of over-reliance on a single source.

3.3 The Emerging Risk Profile

The EU's trade structure for multilayer PCBs now presents a clear vulnerability profile: high import dependency, growing supplier concentration (especially on China), declining domestic production capacity, and exposure to volatile logistics corridors. The salience analysis identifies export propensity as the most salient dynamic, indicating the EU industry is becoming more export-oriented even as it contracts—a potential sign of focusing on niche markets while ceding bulk production.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's market for multilayer printed circuit boards underwent a fundamental transformation. It shifted from a more balanced structure to one characterized by heavy reliance on Asian imports, particularly from China, and a shrinking domestic industrial base. While the EU developed specialized export clusters in certain member states and redirected exports to new markets, these developments were insufficient to offset the decline in production and the erosion of export value. The market's increased concentration and volatility, culminating in a major price shock in 2022, highlight significant supply chain vulnerabilities. The trends point to an EU that has become a much larger net consumer of this strategic electronic component, with diminished control over its supply chain, posing potential challenges for the resilience of its broader electronics and digital industries.