Market evolution: Polycarboxylic acids (CN 2917) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in products classified under customs heading 2917 — Polycarboxylic acids, their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives — over the period 2015–2025. This broad category encompasses a wide range of industrial chemicals used in plastics, resins, coatings, plasticisers and synthetic fibres, with key sub-products including terephthalic acid (PTA), phthalic anhydride, adipic acid, maleic anhydride, and various orthophthalate esters.

The data reveals a market that has undergone a fundamental structural transformation: from a near-balanced trade position in 2015 to a pronounced and growing import dependency by 2025. Understanding the dynamics behind this shift — encompassing changing supplier geography, domestic production trends, evolving EU member specialisation, and external shocks — is essential for assessing the EU's industrial resilience in this critical chemical segment. The analysis draws on trade overview data, partner breakdowns, and concentration metrics.

1. From Near-Balance to Structural Deficit: The Widening Trade Gap

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic deterioration of the EU's trade balance in polycarboxylic acids. While exports grew modestly in value, imports surged far more quickly, converting a broadly balanced trade position into a substantial and widening deficit.

1.1 Export stagnation masks divergent value and volume trends

EU exports of CN 2917 products rose only marginally in value — from €687 million in 2015 to €717 million in 2025, an increase of just 4.4%. Behind this headline stability lies a more concerning reality: export volumes actually declined, falling from 541,641 tonnes to 516,385 tonnes (−4.7%). The modest value increase was entirely driven by higher unit prices, which rose from €1,269/t to €1,389/t (+9.5%). This pattern — declining volumes offset by price inflation — suggests a loss of competitiveness in volume terms rather than genuine export growth.

1.2 Import growth was far more dynamic

In contrast to the sluggish export performance, imports expanded significantly. Import value rose from €1,117 million to €1,504 million (+34.6%), while volumes climbed from 1,107,012 tonnes to 1,368,666 tonnes (+23.6%). Unit prices also increased, from €1,009/t to €1,099/t (+8.9%), but the dominant driver was the genuine expansion in quantities sourced from outside the EU. This points to growing domestic demand being met increasingly by non-EU suppliers.

1.3 The trade balance shifted from near-equilibrium to a deep structural deficit

The combined effect of stagnant exports and surging imports was a sharp deterioration in the EU's trade balance. The deficit widened from €430 million in 2015 to €786 million in 2025 (−82.9%). While the deficit did narrow temporarily around 2018–2019, the trend has been unambiguously negative. At its worst point, the deficit reached approximately €908 million. Correspondingly, net import reliance surged from 3.8% to 22.7% — a five-fold increase over the decade — indicating that the EU has moved from near self-sufficiency to meaningful external dependency in this product group.

2. Geographical Rebalancing: The Rise of Asian Suppliers and the Retreat from Russia

Behind the aggregate trade figures, a profound geographical reconfiguration of the EU's supplier base took place over the decade. Asian suppliers — particularly China, South Korea, and Türkiye — gained market share at the expense of the United States, while EU exports to Russia collapsed entirely following geopolitical events.

2.1 China emerged as the dominant import growth story

Among the EU's top import partners, China stands out for the sheer scale and speed of its growth. EU imports from China more than doubled in value, rising from €201 million to €435 million (+116.2%). China's import value in 2025 was the highest among all partners, surpassing South Korea. This expansion reflects China's massive capacity build-up in petrochemical and chemical intermediates over the past decade, enabling it to serve the EU market with increasingly competitive pricing.

2.2 Türkiye and Taiwan also posted strong growth from lower baselines

Beyond China, several other Asian and near-Asian suppliers registered remarkable growth rates. EU imports from Türkiye increased from €21 million to €59 million (+184.6%), while imports from Taiwan rose from €11 million to €25 million (+125.7%). These gains, while smaller in absolute terms, reflect the broader trend of supply diversification toward cost-competitive producers in the broader Asia-Pacific and Eastern Mediterranean regions.

2.3 United States lost ground as an import supplier

In contrast to the Asian ascendancy, the United States saw its role as a supplier of CN 2917 products to the EU diminish sharply. Imports from the United States fell from €182 million to €97 million (−46.9%). This decline likely reflects the growing competitiveness of Asian producers, as well as potential trade diversion effects and the increasing domestic consumption of US chemical output within North America following the US shale gas boom, which reduced US chemical export surpluses.

2.4 EU exports to Russia collapsed following geopolitical events

On the export side, the most dramatic shift was the near-total disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was a significant destination, absorbing €78 million in EU exports. By 2025, this figure had fallen to just €3,523 — effectively zero. The complete collapse (−100%) corresponds to the imposition of EU sanctions and trade restrictions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This represents a loss of a major market that EU exporters have had to redirect or absorb.

2.5 Türkiye and the United States became key EU export destinations

To compensate for the loss of the Russian market, EU exporters redirected flows toward other partners. Exports to Türkiye nearly doubled from €62 million to €121 million (+95.1%), while exports to the United States grew from €87 million to €143 million (+63.8%). The United Kingdom remained a stable destination at approximately €96 million. Switzerland and Egypt also showed positive trends. However, even these gains were insufficient to offset the broader stagnation of EU export volumes.

2.6 Export concentration increased, signalling growing dependency on fewer partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose from 772 to 1,115 (+44.4%) in value terms, indicating that EU export destinations became more concentrated over the period. While the import HHI remained broadly stable (from 2,149 to 2,320 in value), the rising export concentration suggests that EU exporters became more reliant on a smaller number of key markets — a potential vulnerability should any of those relationships be disrupted.

3. Domestic Production Under Pressure: Member State Shifts and Sub-Product Dynamics

Beneath the aggregate trade flows, the EU's domestic production landscape and the intra-EU distribution of polycarboxylic acid activities underwent significant changes, with production volumes declining, specialisation patterns shifting, and individual sub-products following divergent trajectories.

3.1 EU production volumes fell while values edged up

Domestic production data reveals a concerning trend. Production volumes in kilograms declined from 5,604 million kg in 2015 to 4,569 million kg in 2025 (−18.5%), while production values rose from €3,840 million to €3,993 million (+4.0%). This divergence — lower quantities at higher aggregate values — is consistent with a mix shift toward higher-value-added products and/or general price inflation in the chemical sector. It also corroborates the trade data: with domestic production falling in volume terms, it is logical that rising demand would be met through increased imports.

3.2 Germany's export dominance eroded; Belgium and Spain gained ground

The intra-EU distribution of exports shifted markedly. Germany, traditionally the EU's largest exporter of CN 2917 products, saw its exports fall from €284 million to €174 million (−38.6%). The Netherlands, the second-largest exporter, also declined from €159 million to €139 million (−12.9%). In contrast, Belgium experienced explosive growth, with exports surging from €16 million to €92 million (+464%), while Spain's exports tripled from €39 million to €133 million (+240%). Italy grew more moderately from €91 million to €103 million (+14%). This redistribution suggests a spatial rebalancing of EU chemical export capacity toward Western and Southern Europe.

3.3 Italy and Lithuania led the surge in imports

On the import side, Italy's imports rose from €187 million to €313 million (+67.7%), and Lithuania's from €188 million to €298 million (+58.7%). Poland showed the most dramatic proportional increase, growing from €17 million to €68 million (+298%). Spain and Germany remained large but relatively stable importers. Belgium, notably, saw its imports decline from €139 million to €105 million (−24.6%), consistent with its transition from a net importer to a growing exporter.

3.4 Belgium and the Netherlands emerged as the most specialised EU producers

According to specialisation data for 2025, Belgium led all EU member states with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.41 and an RCA of 2.41, indicating strong specialisation in CN 2917 products. Poland (RSCA 0.18, RCA 1.44) and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.13, RCA 1.31) followed. At the other end of the spectrum, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Estonia, Bulgaria and Ireland showed negligible specialisation (RCA near zero), confirming that polycarboxylic acid production remains geographically concentrated within the EU.

3.5 Terephthalic acid dominated trade but its export profile changed dramatically

At the sub-product level, terephthalic acid and its salts (291736) remained the single largest traded product by volume on both the import and export sides. However, its export trajectory was extraordinary: volumes surged from 71,280 tonnes in 2015 to a peak of 1,017,851 tonnes in 2019, before collapsing to just 168,951 tonnes in 2025. This boom-and-bust cycle likely reflects capacity commissioning and subsequent market adjustments, potentially linked to the PTA plant expansions and subsequent overcapacity in global markets. Imports of 291736 remained broadly stable at around 640,000–770,000 tonnes, confirming that the EU consistently imports large volumes of this key polymer precursor.

3.6 Maleic anhydride imports grew sharply while phthalic anhydride exports declined

Maleic anhydride (291714) saw imports quadruple from 22,510 tonnes to 85,239 tonnes, with value rising from €25 million to €81 million — suggesting growing EU demand outpacing domestic capacity. Phthalic anhydride (291735) exports fell from 29,848 tonnes to 13,691 tonnes (−54%), consistent with a structural decline in demand for traditional phthalate-based plasticisers under regulatory and market pressure. Orthophthalic esters (291734) also saw exports collapse from 105,818 tonnes to just 12,983 tonnes, reflecting the broader European shift away from legacy phthalate chemistry.

3.7 Price volatility intensified in 2021–2022 across most sub-products

Examining import price dynamics at the sub-product level reveals that nearly all major product lines experienced significant price spikes during 2021–2022. For example, maleic anhydride (291714) import prices surged from €834/t in 2020 to €1,962/t in 2022 (+135%), while adipic acid (291712) rose from €1,201/t to €2,013/t (+68%). These spikes correspond to the global energy crisis and supply chain disruptions of that period, which disproportionately affected energy-intensive chemical production. Prices subsequently moderated by 2025 but generally remained above pre-crisis levels, suggesting a structural repricing of chemical inputs in Europe.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in polycarboxylic acids (CN 2917) over 2015–2025 tells a story of a market under structural transformation. The most significant finding is the shift from near self-sufficiency to a 22.7% net import reliance rate, driven by a combination of declining domestic production volumes and rapidly growing imports from Asia — above all from China, whose share more than doubled. At the same time, EU export competitiveness eroded in volume terms, with the loss of the Russian market and declining terephthalic acid export volumes weighing heavily on aggregate performance.

Within the EU, the geography of production and trade shifted meaningfully. Germany's once-dominant export position weakened substantially, while Belgium and Spain emerged as new centres of polycarboxylic acid export activity. The 2021–2022 energy crisis inflicted severe price shocks across virtually all sub-products, though prices have since partially normalised. Looking ahead, the EU faces a challenge in maintaining its industrial base in this sector amid intensifying competition from Asian producers, tightening environmental regulations (particularly affecting legacy phthalate chemistry), and the ongoing geopolitical risks to supply chain resilience. The growing reliance on imports, combined with increased export concentration, suggests that strategic attention to this product group may be warranted for European industrial policy.