Market evolution: Saturated monocarboxylic acids (CN 2915) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in products classified under customs code 2915 — Saturated acyclic monocarboxylic acids and their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives — covering the period 2015–2025. This is a broad product group encompassing key industrial chemicals such as acetic acid, vinyl acetate, ethyl acetate, acetic anhydride, propionic acid, and their various derivatives. These substances serve as inputs for a wide range of downstream industries including adhesives, paints, textiles, food processing, and pharmaceuticals.
Over the decade examined, the EU trade picture for CN 2915 reveals a market shaped by volume contraction, sharp price escalation (especially in 2021–2022), shifting supplier geography, and an increasingly export-oriented EU industry — all against a backdrop of declining domestic production volumes but rising production value.
Detailed trade and concentration data are available on the Trade Dashboard overview for CN 2915.
1. Declining volumes, rising values: a structural shift toward higher unit prices
1.1 Import and export volumes both fell substantially while values grew modestly
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between physical trade volumes and their monetary value. EU imports fell from 2,693,799 tonnes in 2015 to 2,347,194 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 12.9% — while the value of those imports grew 9.5% to reach €2.42 billion. Similarly, EU exports contracted from 807,126 tonnes to 659,664 tonnes (−18.3%), yet their value rose 9.3% to €1.25 billion.
| Flow | Value (€, first → last) | Quantity (t, first → last) | Unit price (€/t, first → last) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 2.21 B → 2.42 B (+9.5%) | 2,693,799 → 2,347,194 (−12.9%) | 820 → 1,031 (+25.7%) |
| Exports | 1.15 B → 1.25 B (+9.3%) | 807,126 → 659,664 (−18.3%) | 1,423 → 1,901 (+33.6%) |
Source: Trade overview
The overall import price rose from €820/t to €1,031/t (+25.7%), while the export price climbed more steeply from €1,423/t to €1,901/t (+33.6%). This suggests that the EU has been progressively shifting toward higher-value-added segments of the CN 2915 product space, both in its export mix and, partly, in the types of products it imports.
1.2 The 2021–2022 price spike marks the decisive inflection point
Looking at unit prices across sub-products reveals that 2021 and especially 2022 were years of exceptional price escalation, driven by the post-COVID demand recovery, surging energy costs in Europe, and global supply-chain disruptions. For example:
- Acetic acid (291521) import prices rose from €335/t (2020) to €723/t (2022), before partially correcting to €473/t in 2025.
- Vinyl acetate (291532) import prices surged from €686/t (2020) to a peak of €1,743/t (2022), then fell back to €874/t by 2025.
- Ethyl acetate (291531) followed a similar pattern, rising from €714/t to €1,426/t before easing to €804/t.
On the export side, the same dynamic is visible. The export price for the residual category 291590 ("other saturated monocarboxylic acids and derivatives") rose from €2,543/t in 2020 to a peak of €3,878/t in 2022, settling at €3,378/t in 2025 — a level still 33% above 2020.
Source: Product segment breakdown
1.3 Domestic production volumes collapsed, but value held up
EU production data for CN 2915 products shows a dramatic volume decline: from 3,060,286 tonnes in 2015 to 1,959,395 tonnes in 2025 (−36.0%). Production value, however, grew from €2.69 billion to €3.27 billion (+21.2%). This mirrors the trade data: the EU chemical industry has been producing fewer tonnes of saturated monocarboxylic acids and derivatives, but at significantly higher prices per unit — consistent with a strategic pivot toward specialty, higher-margin products and away from bulk commodity chemicals.
Source: Production volumes
2. Geographic realignment: rising Asian suppliers and a reshaped European supply chain
2.1 The United States remains the EU's top import partner, while China and Indonesia surge
The United States was the EU's largest supplier throughout the period, with imports valued at €608 million in 2015 and €659 million in 2025 (+8.3%). Crucially, US imports exhibited the lowest volatility among all major partners (coefficient of variation of only 0.09), making the US the EU's most reliable external supplier for CN 2915 products.
However, the most dramatic growth came from Asian suppliers:
| Supplier | 2015 value (€M) | 2025 value (€M) | Change | Volatility (CV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 608 | 659 | +8.3% | 0.09 |
| United Kingdom | 426 | 315 | −26.0% | 0.31 |
| China | 176 | 401 | +128.2% | 0.29 |
| Saudi Arabia | 219 | 134 | −38.8% | 0.16 |
| Indonesia | 153 | 279 | +81.9% | 0.27 |
| Singapore | 121 | 31 | −74.7% | 0.42 |
| Mexico | 123 | 99 | −19.1% | 0.10 |
Source: Top import partners
China's imports more than doubled, rising from €176 million to €401 million (+128.2%), reflecting both China's expanding chemical production capacity and the EU's growing appetite for competitively priced Asian intermediates. Indonesia similarly grew strongly (+81.9%), likely driven by expanding oleochemical and bio-based chemical production in Southeast Asia.
2.2 Saudi Arabia and Singapore saw sharp declines, reflecting supply-chain volatility
Saudi Arabia's share dropped from €219 million to €134 million (−38.8%), while Singapore — which at its peak (2018) contributed nearly €297 million in imports — collapsed to just €31 million by 2025 (−74.7%). Singapore's trade was also the most volatile among major partners (CV of 0.42), suggesting it may have functioned more as a trading hub than a primary production base, with flows subject to re-routing and arbitrage.
The volatility analysis further reveals that Russia's CN 2915 trade was the most volatile of all (CV of 0.75 on imports), likely reflecting geopolitical disruptions and sanctions effects from 2022 onward.
2.3 The United Kingdom's post-Brexit decline is visible on both sides of the trade ledger
The UK's role as both a supplier and customer diminished after 2020. Imports from the UK fell from €426 million to €315 million (−26.0%), while exports to the UK dropped from €218 million to €151 million (−30.8%). This bilateral contraction is consistent with the introduction of customs frictions following the UK's departure from the EU single market at the start of 2021.
2.4 EU export destinations shifted toward Türkiye and the US
On the export side, the EU's main growth markets were:
| Destination | 2015 value (€M) | 2025 value (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 218 | 151 | −30.8% |
| United States | 199 | 264 | +32.8% |
| Switzerland | 100 | 129 | +29.3% |
| Türkiye | 47 | 111 | +135.5% |
| China | 83 | 108 | +30.6% |
| India | 52 | 48 | −6.9% |
Source: Top export partners
Türkiye stands out with a 135.5% increase, rising from €47 million to €111 million. This likely reflects Türkiye's expanding manufacturing base and its increasing integration into European chemical value chains as a proximate processing location.
3. Market structure, vulnerability, and the EU's growing export orientation
3.1 Belgium is the EU's dominant trade hub, with Germany and the Netherlands also playing key roles
The intra-EU and extra-EU trade structure reveals strong concentration in a handful of member states. In 2025, Belgium accounted for the largest share of extra-EU imports (€1.11 billion), followed by the Netherlands (€582 million) and Germany (€161 million). On the export side, Germany led (€420 million), followed by Belgium (€258 million) and the Netherlands (€265 million).
Belgium's dominant position is confirmed by its specialisation index: with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.678 and an RCA of 5.21, Belgium is by far the most specialised EU member state in CN 2915 products. This likely reflects the presence of major petrochemical and chemical clusters in Antwerp and the port's role as a gateway for chemical trade.
| Member state | Import share (2025) | Export share (2025) | RSCA (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | €1.11 B (largest) | €258 M | 0.678 |
| Netherlands | €582 M | €265 M | 0.130 |
| Germany | €161 M | €420 M | −0.052 |
| Spain | €175 M | €77 M | −0.176 |
| Italy | €147 M | €52 M | — |
Source: Specialisation analysis
3.2 The EU's trade deficit narrowed on value terms but import reliance increased
The EU ran a persistent trade deficit in CN 2915 products throughout the period, ranging from −€855 million (2020, the COVID trough in import prices) to −€2.08 billion (2022, the peak of the price spike). In 2025, the deficit stood at −€1.17 billion. Net import reliance rose from 21.6% in 2015 to 26.5% in 2025, suggesting that despite the growth in exports, the EU remains structurally dependent on external supply for this product group.
Source: Net import reliance
3.3 Export propensity surged, signalling the EU's repositioning as a higher-value exporter
Perhaps the most revealing structural indicator is the EU's export propensity, which rose from 18.6% in 2015 to 44.6% in 2025 — a 139% increase. Trade intensity also grew from 44.3% to 69.3% (+56%). These figures indicate that the EU's CN 2915 industry has become far more internationally oriented over the decade. The EU is importing somewhat less in volume terms, exporting relatively more of what it produces, and doing so at significantly higher price points — consistent with a shift toward specialty chemicals and higher-margin derivatives.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance | 21.6% | 26.5% | +22.9% |
| Trade intensity | 44.3% | 69.3% | +56.4% |
| Export propensity | 18.6% | 44.6% | +139.2% |
Source: Vulnerability indicators
3.4 Product-level shifts reveal divergent paths within CN 2915
The sub-product data reveals that the headline trends mask important compositional shifts:
- Acetic acid (291521) — the single largest import by volume — saw imports fall from 957,420 tonnes to 561,648 tonnes (−41.3%), while its value dropped from €414 million to €266 million. This is the clearest case of volume decline driven by reduced EU demand and/or substitution.
- Vinyl acetate (291532), the second-largest import by value, also contracted in volume from 658,892 tonnes to 570,802 tonnes, though its value fluctuated dramatically (peaking at €1.13 billion in 2022 on the back of the price spike).
- The residual category (291590) — covering a wide range of specialty acids and derivatives — proved the most resilient, with import volumes relatively stable and import value actually increasing from €371 million to €589 million.
- On the export side, 291590 remained the EU's largest export category (€506 million in 2025), followed by chloroacetic acids (291540, €105 million) and butanoic/pentanoic acids (291560, €102 million). Notably, acetic acid exports (291521) grew from €32 million to €49 million, and in quantity terms surged to 79,943 tonnes in 2025 — suggesting the EU may be increasingly competitive in bulk acetic acid exports despite declining import volumes.
Source: Product segment breakdown
3.5 Supply shocks in 2021 highlight price vulnerability from concentrated sources
The shock analysis identifies three significant price anomalies, all centred on 2021:
| Partner | Flow | Shift (%) | Abnormality score | Value share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Imports | +84.3% | 9.4 | 11.9% |
| Singapore | Imports | +76.6% | 7.3 | 6.5% |
| Egypt | Exports | +48.2% | 7.3 | 1.7% |
Source: Supply shocks
These 2021 price shocks from Saudi Arabia and Singapore coincided with the broader energy and raw-material price surge. Saudi Arabia's abnormality score of 9.4 — the highest detected — underscores the sensitivity of EU import prices to Middle Eastern supply conditions, particularly for petrochemical-derived acids.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in saturated monocarboxylic acids and derivatives (CN 2915) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation rather than simple decline. While physical trade volumes fell — imports by 13%, exports by 18%, and domestic production by 36% — the monetary value of trade held up and even grew, reflecting a decisive upward shift in unit prices and a reorientation toward higher-value product segments.
Three main dynamics emerge. First, the 2021–2022 period marked a watershed, with energy-driven price spikes temporarily inflating trade values before partial correction in 2023–2025. Second, the geography of supply has been reshaped: China and Indonesia have gained ground as import sources (+128% and +82% respectively), while Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and post-Brexit UK have receded. Third, the EU's industry has become substantially more export-oriented — export propensity nearly tripled — even as net import reliance edged upward, suggesting a "twin-track" strategy of importing bulk intermediates while exporting specialty derivatives at higher margins.
The EU's structural dependence on external supply (26.5% net import reliance) and the demonstrated price volatility from key suppliers (notably Saudi Arabia and Singapore in 2021) point to continued vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions. However, the concentration of production capacity in Belgium and Germany, the growth of high-value exports, and the increasing specialisation of EU firms in niche segments suggest an industry that is adapting — albeit at the cost of reduced volume and greater external reliance on bulk commodity chemicals.