Market evolution: Unsaturated acids (CN 2916) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in products classified under customs code 2916, "Unsaturated acyclic monocarboxylic acids, cyclic monocarboxylic acids, their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives," from 2015 to 2025. This broad category includes key industrial chemicals like acrylic and methacrylic acid esters, benzoic acid, and their derivatives. Over the period, the EU's trade in this sector has undergone significant structural shifts. The overall trade data reveals a complex picture of declining volumes, fluctuating prices, and a fundamental reshaping of trade partnerships, leading to a growing strategic dependency on imports.

1. A Deepening Structural Trade Deficit

The decade-long trend for EU trade in CN 2916 is defined by a widening trade imbalance, driven by a sharp contraction in export volumes that outpaces relatively stable import flows.

Export volumes have fallen dramatically while import volumes have stabilized

The EU's export quantity for this product category declined by 35.5%, from 473,041 tonnes in 2015 to 305,081 tonnes in 2025. This is the lowest volume recorded in the period. In contrast, import volumes experienced a more modest decline of 1.9%, falling from 463,184 tonnes to 454,304 tonnes. This divergence has fundamentally altered the EU's net position, transforming it from a near-balance in 2015 to a significant net importer.

The trade deficit has widened substantially due to persistently high import costs

Despite the relative stability of import volumes, the EU's import bill remained high, ending the period at €1.05 billion, almost identical to its 2015 value of €1.05 billion. Meanwhile, export revenues fell by 16.5% to €740 million. Consequently, the EU's trade deficit in this sector deteriorated by 87.9%, from -€163 million in 2015 to -€306 million in 2025. This indicates that the EU is paying more for a similar quantity of imports while earning less from a shrinking export base.

Key EU trade metrics for CN 2916 (2015 vs. 2025)

2. Geographic Rebalancing and the Rise of New Supplier Giants

The composition of the EU's trade partners has undergone a radical transformation, marked by the decline of the United Kingdom as a key hub and the meteoric rise of Saudi Arabia and China.

The UK's role as a major EU trade partner has collapsed post-Brexit

The most dramatic shift is seen with the United Kingdom. EU imports from the UK plummeted by 85.4%, from €313 million in 2015 to just €46 million in 2025. Similarly, EU exports to the UK fell by 29.2% to €123 million. This decoupling suggests a major reorganization of chemical supply chains following the UK's departure from the EU single market.

Saudi Arabia and China have emerged as dominant import sources

Filling the void and driving growth, imports from Saudi Arabia exploded by an extraordinary 2,587.5%, rising from a mere €5 million in 2015 to €136 million in 2025. This points to a strategic integration of Middle Eastern petrochemical production into EU supply chains. Simultaneously, imports from China grew steadily by 50.3% to reach €309 million, cementing its position as the second-largest supplier. The EU's import concentration shifted accordingly, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) decreasing from 1839 to 1626, indicating slightly more diversification among suppliers.

EU export patterns show consolidation towards key markets

On the export side, the United States remained the top destination, with value growing by 24.0% to €170 million. However, exports to Türkiye halved to €60 million. Notably, exports to China grew strongly by 55.6% to €51 million, highlighting a deepening, albeit complex, trade relationship with the Asian giant.

Major shifts in EU trade partners for CN 2916 (2015-2025)

3. Heightened Price Volatility and Strategic Vulnerability

The period was characterized by significant price swings, supply shocks, and a growing strategic reliance on external producers, revealing underlying fragilities in the EU's position.

Price volatility affected key trade flows, with notable supply shocks

Price instability was pronounced. For instance, EU imports from Saudi Arabia experienced a major price shock in 2018, with a price increase of 62.4% considered highly abnormal. On the export side, prices for shipments to Brazil and Mexico spiked in 2022. These events disrupt planning and margins for EU downstream industries.

The EU's production capacity has contracted, increasing import dependency

EU domestic production of CN 2916 products declined by 4.9% in quantity (from 1.69 billion kg to 1.61 billion kg) and 2.2% in value over the period. This contraction in the industrial base is a key factor behind the rising net import reliance, which surged from 5.9% in 2015 to 13.8% in 2025—a 132.4% increase. The EU is now significantly more dependent on external sources for these chemicals.

Specialization remains geographically concentrated within the EU

At the intra-EU level, production and trade specialization are highly concentrated. Belgium, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.53, is by far the most specialized EU member state in this product category, followed by Estonia and France. This concentration means the EU's overall capacity and resilience in this sector are heavily dependent on the industrial bases of a few member states.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in unsaturated acids (CN 2916) over 2015-2025 tells a story of strategic adjustment and emerging vulnerability. The bloc has successfully diversified its import sources, reducing its reliance on the UK and establishing new, large-scale supply relationships with Saudi Arabia and China. However, this has come at the cost of a widening trade deficit and a significant increase in import dependency, coinciding with a decline in domestic production capacity. The market has become more susceptible to geopolitical shifts and price volatility from its key suppliers. Looking forward, the EU faces the dual challenge of revitalizing its industrial competitiveness in this key chemical sector while managing the risks inherent in its current, deep-seated import reliance.