Market evolution: Terephthalic acid (CN 291736) — 2015–2025
Introduction
The EU's trade in Terephthalic acid and its salts (CN 291736) over the 2015-2025 decade reveals a market undergoing significant structural change. While the European Union remained a net importer of this essential polyester precursor, its overall trade deficit narrowed, driven primarily by a dramatic surge in export volumes and values. This period was also characterized by pronounced volatility, with a major price shock in 2022, and a notable reorientation of trade partnerships away from traditional partners towards more diversified, yet sometimes more concentrated, markets.
A Narrowing Deficit Fueled by an Export Surge
The decade began with the EU as a substantial net importer of terephthalic acid, with a trade deficit of over €426 million in 2015. By 2025, while still in deficit, this imbalance had shrunk to approximately €396 million, marking a 7.1% improvement. This shift is not attributable to a decline in imports, but rather to an exceptional expansion of EU exports.
The Explosive Growth of EU Exports
Between the first and last year of the period, the value of EU exports grew by 137.4%, from €44.5 million to €105.6 million. This growth was even more pronounced in volume terms, with quantities exported rising by 137.0% from 71,280 tonnes to 168,951 tonnes. In stark contrast, import values and quantities grew by only 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively, over the same period. The General Overview highlights this asymmetry in growth trajectories.
Stable Prices Amid Volume Shifts
Remarkably, the rapid expansion in trade volumes occurred alongside relatively stable average unit prices over the entire period. The average export price shifted by a mere 0.2%, from €624.3/t to €625.3/t, while the average import price saw a 0.9% increase, from €647.4/t to €653.3/t. This suggests the growth was driven by volume rather than inflationary price trends, though significant intra-period volatility existed.
Shifting Partnerships and Production Centres
The geographical landscape of EU trade in terephthalic acid underwent substantial realignment, characterized by the rise of new key partners and a growing concentration of production within specific EU member states.
A New Map of Trade Partners
The sources of EU imports and destinations for its exports changed markedly. Turkey emerged as the dominant market for EU exports, growing from €12.0 million in 2015 to €75.5 million in 2025 (a 528.6% increase). Conversely, imports from South Korea, the largest single import source in 2015, fell by 34.6% in value by 2025. China's role transformed dramatically, becoming a major import source with growth exceeding 136,000% in value, while exports to traditional partners like Egypt virtually ceased. Detailed partner data is available in the top partners section.
The following table summarizes the evolution of EU trade with key partners:
| Flow | Partner | 2015 Value (€m) | 2025 Value (€m) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | Türkiye | 12.0 | 75.5 | +528.6 |
| United Kingdom | 0.09 | 12.5 | +13,882.6 | |
| India | <0.01 | 8.7 | +921,454.3 | |
| Egypt | 32.6 | <0.01 | -100.0 | |
| Imports | Korea, Republic of | 272.3 | 178.0 | -34.6 |
| China | <0.01 | 37.5 | +136,107.1 | |
| Mexico | 79.4 | 82.8 | +4.3 |
Internal Specialisation within the EU
Production is highly concentrated. In 2025, Belgium and Poland were the most specialised EU producers, with Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indices of 0.71 and 0.69, respectively. Together, they accounted for over 85% of the EU's reported production share. This specialisation aligns with their trade performance; Poland and Lithuania were also the top EU member states by import value. Production volumes themselves grew by 26.5% from 2015 to 2025, reaching 3.24 billion kg. The specialisation and production volumes data underscore this internal consolidation.
The 2022 Price Shock and Evolving Market Concentration
The period was not one of linear growth but was punctuated by a significant shock in 2022, which tested market resilience and influenced longer-term concentration trends.
The 2022 Global Supply Shock
A major price shock centered in 2022 is evident in the data. For EU imports, both Mexico and South Korea experienced abnormal price spikes with shift percentages of 78.8% and 67.9%, respectively. This event had a high abnormality score (5.9 for Mexico) and impacted trade flows significantly, as these two partners represented 27.3% and 72.7% of the import value share in that year. A similar, though smaller, shock affected EU exports to Egypt (84.8% price shift). This volatility likely reflects broader global supply chain disruptions during that period, a finding detailed in the supply shocks analysis.
Diverging Concentration Trends for Imports and Exports
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) measures market concentration. For EU imports, concentration decreased by 29.2% from an HHI of 6,308 to 4,467, indicating a diversification of supply sources away from dominant partners like South Korea. For EU exports, the trend was opposite: concentration increased by 64.7% from an HHI of 3,275 to 5,393. This reflects the growing dominance of a few key export markets, notably Turkey, which became a disproportionately large destination. The concentration dashboard provides these metrics.
Conclusion
From 2015 to 2025, the EU terephthalic acid market evolved from a position of heavy import reliance towards a more balanced, though still import-dependent, trade profile. This transformation was powered by an exceptional increase in exports, fundamentally altering trade partnerships. The landscape is now more concentrated for exports (centered on Turkey) but more diversified for imports. The 2022 price shock demonstrated the market's vulnerability to global supply disruptions. Overall, the EU's strengthened export capacity, particularly from specialised producers in Belgium and Poland, has enhanced its market position, reducing its net import reliance from 20.5% to 19.5% and increasing its strategic autonomy in this key industrial chemical.