Market evolution: Other ethylene polymers (CN 390190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN code 390190 — "Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms (excl. polyethylene and ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymers)" — over the period 2015 to 2025. This residual category within heading 3901 covers specialty ethylene-based polymers such as ionomers, certain block copolymers, and other niche ethylene copolymers not classified under the main polyethylene or EVA codes (Scope & Definitions).

Over the eleven-year window, the EU experienced a pronounced contraction in trade volumes — both exports and imports — while unit values rose substantially. At the same time, the EU's trade balance eroded, partner composition shifted dramatically, and the bloc transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer. These changes reflect a combination of structural market evolution, geopolitical disruptions (including Brexit and Russia-related sanctions), and shifting competitive dynamics within the European petrochemical industry.

I. A Structural Contraction: Declining Volumes Offset by Rising Unit Values

Export volumes fell by over 60% while import volumes halved

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the steep contraction in traded volumes. EU exports of CN 390190 fell from 798,160 tonnes in 2015 to 294,326 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 63.1%. Over the same period, imports dropped from 528,773 tonnes to 230,951 tonnes (−56.3%). This was not a smooth, linear decline but rather a series of cyclical fluctuations around a steep downward trend, with import volumes reaching a low of 144,594 tonnes in one intermediate year and export volumes bottoming at 245,986 tonnes (General Overview).

Unit values rose sharply, partially compensating the volume decline in value terms

Despite the collapse in volumes, unit prices increased significantly. Export unit values rose from €1,643/t in 2015 to €2,243/t in 2025 (+36.5%), peaking at €2,920/t in an intermediate year. Import prices followed a similar trajectory, rising from €1,549/t to €1,963/t (+26.8%). These increases partially cushioned the impact of declining volumes on trade values, but the net effect was still a large drop:

EU production volumes were broadly stable, suggesting a demand-side or structural shift

EU domestic production of CN 390190 — measured via the corresponding Prodcom code 20.16.10.90 — declined only modestly from 1,109 million kg to 1,055 million kg (−4.9%) in quantity, while production value actually rose from approximately €1 billion to €1.34 billion (+34.3%) (Market Structure — production volumes). This suggests that the dramatic drop in trade volumes was not primarily driven by a collapse in European manufacturing capacity, but rather by a combination of reduced foreign demand for EU exports and a possible reorientation of output toward domestic consumption. The substantial rise in production value (+34.3%) mirrors the increase in unit values observed in trade data, pointing to a broader price uplift across the ethylene polymers complex — likely linked to rising feedstock costs (naphtha, ethylene) and energy prices, particularly from 2021 onward.

The two sub-segments tell divergent volume stories

The heading 390190 is composed of two CN sub-codes. The bulk product, 39019080 (general residual ethylene polymers), accounts for the vast majority of trade by volume and value. The specialty sub-code 39019030 (ionomer resins and specific A-B-A block copolymers) involves far smaller quantities but commands unit prices roughly 2 to 2.5 times higher than 39019080 (Product Segment Breakdown):

Import volumes for 39019080 grew from 205,793 tonnes (2017, first available) to 227,690 tonnes (2025), indicating a modest upward trend in this sub-segment's import intake despite the headline decline. By contrast, exports of 39019080 fell from 242,983 tonnes (2017) to 293,280 tonnes (2025), remaining relatively resilient after an earlier peak. The specialty ionomer sub-code 39019030 saw its export volumes decline from 2,735 tonnes (2015) to 1,046 tonnes (2025), consistent with a niche product facing increasing competitive pressure or demand shifts.

II. Geopolitical Reorientation: Shifting Partners and Disrupted Trade Corridors

Brexit reshaped EU–UK trade in both directions

Perhaps the single most consequential structural shift in the partner data involves the United Kingdom. Pre-Brexit, the UK was the EU's largest export destination for CN 390190, absorbing €255 million in 2015 (representing the largest share of any partner). By 2025, exports to the UK had fallen to €45 million (−82.2%). Simultaneously, UK-to-EU imports surged from €23 million to €116 million (+400%) (General Overview — top partners). This pattern — a dramatic decline in EU exports to the UK alongside a sharp increase in UK imports into the EU — is consistent with the UK establishing or expanding its own production capacity post-Brexit, or with the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of new customs barriers and rules of origin. The volatility of UK-related trade flows is also notable: the coefficient of variation for EU exports to the UK stands at 1.01, among the highest for major partners.

Russia and Saudi Arabia: two near-total collapses with different causes

Two partners experienced almost complete evaporation of trade, but for different reasons:

• Russian Federation: EU exports to Russia fell from €128 million in 2015 to just €5 million in 2025 (−95.9%). This collapse aligns directly with the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which progressively restricted petrochemical trade. The coefficient of variation of 0.94 reflects the sharp, sudden nature of this disruption.

• Saudi Arabia: EU imports from Saudi Arabia fell from €200 million to €1 million (−99.5%). Saudi Arabia had been the third-largest import source in 2015. This collapse — with a coefficient of variation of 1.84, the highest of any major partner — likely reflects the redirection of Saudi ethylene polymer exports toward Asian markets (particularly China and India), where demand growth has been stronger and logistics more favourable.

The United States remained a major but declining import source

The United States was the EU's largest import partner in both 2015 (€356 million) and 2025 (€136 million), though the decline of 61.7% is substantial. A notable price shock was detected for US imports around 2017, with an abnormality score of 43.4 and a 53% price shift, suggesting a possible supply disruption or significant contract renegotiation during that year (Volatility & Shocks). Despite the volume decline, the US maintained its position as the dominant import source, with import concentration (HHI) falling from 2,633 to 1,929 — a reduction reflecting the diversification of the EU's import base as former major suppliers (Saudi Arabia, Singapore) faded.

China emerged as a stable growth market for EU exports

China's share of EU exports proved remarkably resilient, rising from €133 million to €161 million (+21.3%). The coefficient of variation for exports to China is just 0.25, the lowest among all major export partners — indicating consistent, stable demand. China was the only major export partner to show a positive growth trend over the period, likely driven by China's expanding demand for specialty polymer grades in packaging, automotive, and other advanced applications.

EU member state roles shifted markedly

The distribution of trade across EU member states underwent significant change (General Overview — top reporters):

Belgium stands out as the most resilient exporter, maintaining its position as the EU's largest exporter with only a marginal decline (−3.0%). Its specialisation in this product is confirmed by a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.65 and an RCA of 4.75, the highest in the EU (Market Structure — specialisation). By contrast, the Netherlands saw its exports collapse from €293 million to €23 million (−92.2%), and Spain from €259 million to €47 million (−81.7%). Sweden more than doubled its exports, and Italy emerged from near-zero to become a significant exporter (€58 million), suggesting a redistribution of EU production capacity.

III. From Net Exporter to Net Importer: A Shifting Vulnerability Profile

The EU's net import reliance flipped from negative to positive

In 2015, the EU was a net exporter of CN 390190, with a negative net import reliance of −7.7% (meaning exports exceeded imports by 7.7% of apparent consumption). By 2025, this figure had shifted to +11.0%, indicating that imports now exceed exports as a share of the domestic market. The swing is even more dramatic in intermediate years, with net import reliance reaching a low of −67.5% at one point (a period of very strong export orientation) and a high of +15.4% more recently (Autonomy & Vulnerability — net import reliance).

Trade intensity and export propensity both surged

Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) nearly doubled, rising from 59.7% to 112.0%. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 44.6% to 129.1% (Autonomy & Vulnerability — trade intensity). These very high ratios suggest significant re-export or transit activity (particularly via Belgium and the Netherlands) and indicate that the EU market for this product has become increasingly integrated with — and dependent on — international supply chains. An export propensity above 100% implies that reported exports exceed domestic production, which can occur when re-exports of imported material are significant.

Import concentration decreased while export concentration increased slightly

The import-side Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) fell from 2,633 to 1,929 (by value), indicating meaningful diversification away from the formerly dominant US and Saudi sources. On the export side, the HHI rose modestly from 834 to 1,004, suggesting a slight consolidation of exports toward fewer destination markets — notably China and the US, which absorbed a growing share of the reduced export volume (Market Structure — concentration).

High volatility in several bilateral relationships signals ongoing fragility

The coefficient of variation analysis reveals that several trade corridors remain highly unstable. On the import side, the UAE (CV: 1.91), Saudi Arabia (CV: 1.84), Serbia (CV: 1.76), and Singapore (CV: 1.77) all exhibit extreme volatility, reflecting either recent market entry/exit or highly irregular trade patterns (Volatility & Shocks — volatility). On the export side, Singapore (CV: 1.49), Brazil (CV: 1.51), and Malaysia (CV: 1.11) show similar instability. A notable price shock was detected for EU exports to Malaysia in 2021 (abnormality: 28.1, price shift: +289.3%) and to Israel in 2022 (abnormality: 26.0, price shift: +55.6%), both coinciding with the broader commodity price inflation of the post-COVID period (Volatility & Shocks — supply shocks).

Conclusion

The EU market for other ethylene polymers (CN 390190) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade volumes contracted sharply — by more than 50% on both the import and export sides — while unit values rose by 27–37%, reflecting broader inflationary pressures in the petrochemical sector. Despite stable domestic production volumes, the EU shifted from being a modest net exporter to a net importer, with net import reliance reaching +11% by 2025.

Geopolitical events played a decisive role in reshaping trade flows. Brexit dramatically altered EU–UK trade patterns, with the EU's exports to the UK collapsing by 82% while imports from the UK surged fivefold. Sanctions on Russia eliminated a once-significant export market, and the near-total disappearance of Saudi imports suggests a large-scale redirection of Middle Eastern supply toward Asia. China emerged as the EU's most stable and growing export partner.

Within the EU, Belgium consolidated its position as the dominant production and export hub, while several previously large exporters (the Netherlands, Spain, France) saw dramatic declines. Sweden and Italy emerged as growing exporters, indicating a redistribution of competitive advantages. The combination of rising trade intensity, high export propensity, and increasing import diversification suggests that the EU market for these specialty polymers is deeply embedded in global supply chains — a position that offers efficiency gains but also exposes the bloc to ongoing volatility in bilateral trade corridors.