Market evolution: Linear low-density polyethylene (CN 390140) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in Ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers (customs code 390140) from 2015 to 2025. The product, commonly known as linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), is a key plastic used in packaging films. The analysis is based on annual trade data from the European Union with non-EU countries. The period examined reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's market position, characterized by a dramatic surge in imports that has reshaped the trade balance, altered key partnerships, and increased the bloc's external dependency.

The Structural Shift from Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most significant trend in the EU's LLDPE trade is the complete reversal of its trade balance. The EU has transitioned from a position of self-sufficiency to one of heavy reliance on external suppliers.

The collapse of the trade surplus

In 2017, the first year with complete data, the EU maintained a healthy trade surplus of €191 million in value. This was supported by export volumes of 532,076 tonnes against imports of 438,708 tonnes. By 2025, this situation had inverted dramatically, resulting in a substantial trade deficit of €781 million. The EU now imports over three times the volume it exports (1.43 million tonnes versus 503,306 tonnes), with export value declining by 2.3% while import value surged by 181.3% over the period. The net import reliance shifted from -7.7% to +11.0%, confirming the EU's move into dependency.

The diverging price trends driving the balance

This shift was driven by opposing price trends for imports and exports. EU import prices fell by 13.9% over the period (from €1,202/tonne to €1,035/tonne), making foreign supply increasingly competitive. Conversely, EU export prices rose by 3.3% (from €1,350/tonne to €1,395/tonne). This price divergence, where the EU's product became more expensive on the global market while imported alternatives grew cheaper, fundamentally eroded the competitiveness of EU producers in external markets. The detailed trade overview illustrates this stark divergence.

Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

The geographical pattern of EU trade has been completely reoriented, with a clear shift in the sources of imports and the destinations for exports.

The United States' dominance in EU imports

The most striking development is the rise of the United States as the EU's dominant LLDPE supplier. US imports into the EU exploded by 595.3% in value, growing from €137 million in 2017 to €950 million in 2025. This single country now accounts for the largest share of EU imports. Other major traditional suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia, saw relatively stable or declining shares, while new sources like Canada and Russia emerged with extreme growth rates (though from small bases). This is detailed in the analysis of top partners.

Changing patterns in EU exports

EU export markets have also shifted. The United Kingdom, once the primary destination (€191 million in 2017), saw its share collapse by 60.3%. In contrast, exports to China grew by 346.6%, making it a key growth market. This reorientation, combined with the general decline in export volumes, points to a competitive struggle where EU producers have lost market share in traditional nearby markets and are only partially compensating with sales in more distant ones. The export market evolution is captured in the same partner analysis.

Market Concentration and Internal Vulnerabilities

The external trade shifts have been accompanied by growing concentration in trade flows and notable volatility in certain partnerships, highlighting vulnerabilities.

Rising concentration of import sources

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports rose significantly by 54.0%, indicating that the EU's import base is becoming less diversified and more dependent on a smaller number of suppliers. This increasing concentration is largely driven by the dominant role of the United States. In contrast, the HHI for exports remained relatively stable, suggesting that the EU's remaining export market is not overly reliant on a single partner.

Price volatility and supply shocks

The data reveals significant price volatility in trade with several partners. Canada and Russia show the highest coefficients of variation for import values (1.24 and 1.03, respectively), indicating unstable trade relationships. On the export side, the most notable supply shocks were price spikes to Israel (2021), Japan (2022), and Türkiye (2021), with abnormality scores above 9. These shocks, particularly to a large export market like Türkiye (accounting for 16.5% of export value), expose the EU's export revenue to significant risks in specific markets.

Conclusion

The period 2015–2025 witnessed a fundamental restructuring of the EU's LLDPE market. The bloc has decisively shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, driven by a collapse in price competitiveness that has fueled an import surge. This surge has been geographically concentrated, with the United States emerging as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, thereby increasing the EU's strategic dependency and reducing import source diversity. Internally, while EU production volume slightly decreased, its value increased, suggesting a potential move towards higher-value products or inflationary effects. The combination of heavy import reliance, concentrated supply chains, and price volatility in key export markets creates a new landscape of vulnerability for the EU's plastics sector. The market is now defined less by its export capacity and more by its dependence on competitively priced, and sometimes volatile, foreign supply.