Market evolution: Low density polyethylene (CN 390110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in polyethylene with a specific gravity of less than 0.94 in primary forms (Customs code 390110) from 2015 to 2025. The product, commonly known as low-density polyethylene (LDPE), is a foundational material for packaging, construction, and consumer goods. The analysis is based on trade data focusing on EU flows with non-EU partners, revealing a period of overall contraction marked by significant price volatility and a fundamental restructuring of the EU's trading relationships. The market has seen a decline in total traded volume and value, a shift in major partners, and evolving patterns of EU self-sufficiency.

A Decade of Contraction: The Overall Downward Trajectory in EU LDPE Trade

The period under review was characterized by a general contraction in both the value and volume of the EU's external trade in LDPE. While market cycles are normal, the overall trend from 2015 to 2025 points towards a long-term weakening in this specific segment of the EU's plastics trade.

A Persistent Decline in Export and Import Values

The EU's trade in LDPE experienced a significant decline over the decade. The total value of exports to non-EU countries fell by 19.0%, from €1.89 billion in 2015 to €1.53 billion in 2025. This decline was even more pronounced on the import side, which saw a 23.2% decrease, from €2.18 billion to €1.68 billion over the same period. This contraction outpaced the slight decline in unit prices, indicating a real decrease in trade volumes. As detailed in the General Overview, the EU’s trade balance in this product remained in deficit for most of the period, though it narrowed considerably from -€294 million in 2015 to -€147 million in 2025, representing a 50% improvement.

Divergent Price and Volume Trends

The decline in trade was not uniform between price and volume. Export volumes fell by 17.4% (from 1.35 million tonnes to 1.11 million tonnes), while export prices saw only a marginal decline of 1.9%. On the import side, the volume drop was 15.9% (from 1.82 million tonnes to 1.53 million tonnes), accompanied by an 8.7% decrease in the average import price. This suggests that the EU's reduced trade was primarily driven by lower quantities rather than substantially cheaper foreign product. The price data shows significant volatility, with a sharp dip during the 2020 pandemic and a peak around 2022, likely linked to energy and supply chain crises.

Geopolitical and Logistical Realignments Reshaping Trade Partners

Beyond the overall decline, the composition of the EU's LDPE trading partners underwent a dramatic transformation. Traditional relationships were disrupted, and new dependencies emerged, reflecting broader geopolitical and economic shifts.

The Reconfiguration of the EU's Import Base

The EU's source of LDPE imports shifted markedly away from some traditional suppliers. Saudi Arabia, the largest import partner in 2015 (€610 million), saw its exports to the EU collapse by 83.4% to just €101 million in 2025. Similarly, imports from South Korea and Brazil declined by over 30% each. In stark contrast, the United States became the EU's largest import source by value in 2025 (€427 million), a 212% increase from 2015. The United Kingdom, post-Brexit, saw a 30.7% decline in its exports to the EU. This realignment, detailed in the top partners data, points to a major reconfiguration of global supply chains towards North American and potentially more proximate suppliers.

Diversification and Destabilization of Export Markets

The EU's export markets also evolved significantly. Exports to the United Kingdom, the largest market in 2015, plummeted by 58.2% following Brexit. Conversely, exports to Türkiye grew steadily by 17.5%, and those to China surged by 88.2%, making it the third-largest destination by 2025. However, trade with some partners proved volatile; exports to Russia collapsed by 84.2%, falling from €120 million to just €19 million, almost certainly reflecting sanctions. The concentration of export markets, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), decreased by 13.5%, indicating a modest diversification away from a few key partners, as shown in the concentration metrics.

Internal Restructuring and Shifting Vulnerabilities within the EU

The trade contraction and partner shifts occurred alongside significant internal changes in the EU's production landscape and a shift in its strategic trade position from a net exporter to a slight net importer.

Production Decline and Internal Specialization

EU domestic production of LDPE also followed a declining path. The production volume fell by 19.5% (from 6.75 billion kg to 5.43 billion kg), and production value decreased by 10.8%, as per production data. Within the EU, production became more concentrated in specialized Member States. Belgium and Sweden displayed the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in 2025, indicating strong specialization in this product. Conversely, countries like Germany and Italy, despite being major producers, showed lower specialization, suggesting their production is more diversified across other chemical sectors. This internal restructuring is highlighted in the specialization data.

From Net Exporter to Net Importer: A Shift in Self-Sufficiency

A critical outcome of the past decade has been the erosion of the EU's self-sufficiency in LDPE. In 2015, the EU was a net exporter (net import reliance was -1.9%). By 2025, this had flipped to a net importer position (0.7%). While this shift is modest in absolute terms, the 138.7% change is significant. This trend is further underscored by the export propensity—the share of domestic production exported—which fell from 22.2% in 2015 to 19.9% in 2025. This indicates that a growing portion of EU-produced LDPE is being consumed domestically or that the trade balance in this specific product has become a lower priority for the bloc's petrochemical sector, as detailed in the vulnerability metrics.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in low-density polyethylene (CN 390110) from 2015 to 2025 tells a story of decline and transformation. The market contracted overall, driven by falling volumes and influenced by severe price shocks in 2020-2022. This contraction was not passive; it was shaped by active forces: the geopolitical realignment of global supply chains, most notably the collapse of trade with Saudi Arabia and Russia and the rise of the United States as a key supplier, and the profound impact of Brexit on UK-EU flows. Internally, the EU's industrial landscape responded with a decline in total output and a greater concentration of specialized production in certain Member States. The net result is a shift in the EU's strategic position from a slight net exporter to a net importer of this material, suggesting a potential long-term change in the region's competitive stance or trade priorities within the global LDPE market.