Market evolution: Motor vehicle parts (CN 87089997) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in motor vehicle parts classified under customs code 87089997 — a residual category covering a wide range of parts and accessories for tractors, passenger vehicles, goods vehicles, and special-purpose motor vehicles, excluding closed-die forged steel items. The analysis spans the period from 2015 to 2025 and draws on trade data with non-EU partners. Over this decade, the EU remained a substantial net exporter, but several structural shifts have emerged: export volumes have contracted sharply while import values have grown, the geography of trade has tilted toward emerging suppliers, and the automotive parts sector has become less trade-intensive relative to its booming domestic production. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. The quantity–price divergence: Exports shift upward in value while volumes erode

A defining feature of the 2015–2025 period is the stark divergence between EU export volumes and export values. While the value of EU exports declined by 9.1% (from €10.22 billion in 2015 to €9.29 billion in 2025), the physical quantity shipped abroad fell by 36.1% (from 1.20 million tonnes to 769,000 tonnes) (General Overview). This gap was bridged by a 42.3% rise in export unit values — from €8,495 per tonne to €12,089 per tonne — indicating that the EU has shifted toward exporting higher-value-added, more technologically sophisticated or processed components rather than competing on volume.

1.1 Export volumes peaked early and declined through the decade

Export quantities reached their highest point at the start of the period (2015: 1.20 million tonnes) and their lowest at the end (2025: 769,000 tonnes). The decline was not linear; the sharpest drops likely coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic disruption in 2020 and the subsequent semiconductor shortages that constrained vehicle production. By 2025, export volumes were roughly a third below their 2015 baseline.

1.2 Unit prices climbed steadily, compressing value losses

The rise in export unit values from €8,495/t to €12,089/t (with a peak of €12,505/t) partially offset the volume decline. This price escalation reflects a combination of factors: input cost inflation (energy, raw materials), a shift in the product mix toward more complex and premium components, and the broader trend of vehicles becoming more technology-laden (electrification, driver-assistance systems), which raises the value of individual parts.

1.3 Import dynamics moved in the opposite direction

In contrast to exports, both import values and import quantities grew over the period. Import values rose by 33.8% (from €3.14 billion to €4.20 billion), while quantities increased by 26.4% (from 437,000 tonnes to 552,000 tonnes) (General Overview). Import unit prices rose more modestly — by 5.9% (from €7,189/t to €7,611/t) — suggesting that imported parts remained relatively price-competitive and that the EU increasingly sourced from lower-cost suppliers abroad.

2. Geographic realignment: Rising suppliers from Türkiye, China, and India

The top trading partners data reveals a notable geographic restructuring of both the EU's import sources and export destinations over the decade. While traditional partners remain important, the fastest growth has come from a handful of emerging or strategically positioned economies.

2.1 Imports: Türkiye and China consolidate as leading suppliers

The two largest sources of growth in EU imports were China (+142.7%, rising from €396 million to €962 million) and Türkiye (+58.4%, from €569 million to €902 million). India also recorded explosive growth (+180.4%, from €116 million to €326 million), though from a smaller base. These gains reflect the broader trend of automotive supply-chain globalisation: Chinese parts makers have expanded their footprint in Europe, aided by cost competitiveness and capacity investments, while Türkiye has leveraged its customs union with the EU and geographic proximity to serve as a nearshore manufacturing hub.

Meanwhile, traditional suppliers saw declines. Imports from the United Kingdom fell by 23.0% (from €685 million to €528 million), likely a consequence of Brexit-related trade frictions and rules-of-origin adjustments. Japan (−36.7%) and Korea (−19.1%) also lost share, possibly reflecting the shift of Japanese and Korean OEM production toward localised European assembly and changing sourcing strategies.

2.2 Exports: Türkiye surges as the UK and US soften

On the export side, the EU's largest absolute declines were recorded vis-à-vis the United States (−22.6%, from €1.62 billion to €1.26 billion) and the United Kingdom (−8.1%, from €1.63 billion to €1.50 billion). These two markets remain the EU's top two export destinations, but their relative weight has eroded. The US decline may reflect reshoring pressures, tariff uncertainties, and the growth of localised North American supply chains. The UK decline mirrors the post-Brexit recalibration noted above.

By contrast, exports to Türkiye surged by 44.8% (from €855 million to €1.24 billion), making it the EU's third-largest export market by 2025 — up from a position further down the ranking in 2015. This reflects the deep integration of Turkish vehicle assembly operations with European component suppliers. South Africa (+18.7%) also posted gains, possibly linked to EU OEMs' continued presence in the South African automotive sector.

2.3 Trade concentration increased modestly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose by 10.2% (from 1,203 to 1,326 by value), indicating a moderate but meaningful increase in supplier concentration. This is consistent with the rapid growth of a few key suppliers — particularly China and Türkiye — at the expense of a broader set of smaller origins. Export concentration also edged up by 6.1% (from 808 to 856), though the EU's export base remained more diversified than its import base.

3. Domestic production boom and declining trade intensity reshape the EU's strategic position

Perhaps the most structurally significant development over 2015–2025 is the remarkable expansion of EU domestic production value, which more than doubled — growing by 111.8% from €32.2 billion to €68.3 billion (with a peak near €80 billion). This surge, driven by electrification, vehicle complexity, and re-industrialisation efforts, has fundamentally altered the EU's relationship with global trade in this product category.

3.1 Export propensity and trade intensity have both fallen sharply

Despite the production boom, the share of output that is exported has declined dramatically. Export propensity fell by 41.6% — from 28.3% to 16.6% — while trade intensity (the combined share of exports and imports in production) dropped by 40.0% — from 35.9% to 21.6%. In other words, the EU's motor vehicle parts sector has become significantly more oriented toward its own internal market. The massive growth in production has outpaced the growth in exports, suggesting that much of the new output is serving intra-EU vehicle assembly (not captured in extra-EU trade data) and domestic demand.

3.2 The net exporter position weakened but persisted

The EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, but the net import reliance metric — which measures the trade balance relative to apparent consumption — shifted from −19.7% to −11.3% (improvement of 42.6%). Negative values indicate a net export surplus. The narrowing of this surplus reflects the combination of rising imports and stagnating export values, even as domestic production surged. The trade balance itself fell by 28.1%, from €7.08 billion to €5.09 billion.

3.3 The EU's competitive specialisation remains concentrated in Western and Central Europe

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that the most specialised EU member states in this product are Portugal (RSCA 0.45), Slovenia (0.35), Slovakia (0.29), Czechia (0.27), and Italy (0.26). These countries combine established automotive manufacturing ecosystems with strong cost competitiveness. At the other end, Ireland (RSCA −0.86), Cyprus (−0.78), and Malta (−0.73) show the weakest specialisation, consistent with their limited automotive manufacturing bases. Notably, Czechia's export growth of 356% over the period (from €151 million to €690 million) stands out, reflecting the country's emergence as a major automotive parts hub.

3.4 Volatility and price shocks have been episodic rather than systemic

The volatility analysis reveals that trade flows have been moderately volatile but not dominated by sustained shocks. On the import side, Serbia (coefficient of variation 0.47) and Morocco (0.42) showed the highest variability, though both are relatively small suppliers. Among major partners, the UK (0.37) and India (0.36) displayed elevated import volatility — consistent with the Brexit disruption and India's rapid ramp-up, respectively.

On the export side, Russia stands out with the highest volatility (CV 0.70), reflecting the severe disruption caused by the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent collapse of EU–Russia trade. India (0.51) and Japan (0.38) also showed elevated export volatility. The most notable price shock events detected were a 36.7% price shift in EU exports to South Africa in 2022 (abnormality score 27.8) and a 31.9% price shift in imports from the UK in 2021 (abnormality 5.3), both likely linked to post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions and currency fluctuations.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in motor vehicle parts (CN 87089997) underwent a quiet but significant transformation. The EU remained a net exporter with a trade surplus exceeding €5 billion in 2025, but that surplus contracted by over a quarter from its 2015 level. This erosion was driven not by export weakness alone — export values fell only modestly despite a 36% decline in volumes — but by the robust growth of imports from a diversifying set of suppliers, most notably China (+143%), India (+180%), and Türkiye (+58%).

The most striking structural shift, however, occurred in the relationship between trade and production. EU domestic production value more than doubled to €68.3 billion, while export propensity and trade intensity both fell by more than 40%. This indicates that the European automotive parts industry has become substantially more inward-looking, with much of the production boom absorbed by intra-EU vehicle assembly chains and domestic demand rather than extra-EU exports.

Looking ahead, the rising concentration of imports, the continued shift toward higher-value exports, and the deepening of regional supply chains (particularly with Türkiye and Central European member states) suggest that the EU's motor vehicle parts trade is evolving from a model of broad global reach toward one of tighter regional integration — with the EU serving as both a major production base and an increasingly import-dependent consumer of specific components from cost-competitive suppliers.