Market evolution: Motor vehicle gearboxes (CN 87084020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in gearboxes and parts for the industrial assembly of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and certain special-purpose vehicles (Combined Nomenclature code 87084020) over the period 2015–2025. The product sits at the heart of the European automotive value chain, serving as a critical component for vehicle assembly. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade in this category underwent profound structural change: overall trade volumes contracted sharply, the geographic orientation of both imports and exports was redrawn, and the EU shifted from a position of moderate net import reliance toward a much stronger net-export posture. These dynamics reflect the combined impact of rising EU domestic production, supply-chain regionalisation, geopolitical disruptions, and the accelerating transition toward electrified powertrains.

For a full product description and overview, see the Scope & Definitions page.

1. A Decade of Contracting External Trade Volumes Surging Domestic Production

1.1 EU imports and exports both fell significantly in value and volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's external trade in gearboxes under CN 87084020 contracted markedly in both directions. Import values fell from €1.09 billion to €622 million (−42.9%), while export values declined from €677 million to €498 million (−26.4%). The contraction in physical volumes was even steeper: imported quantities dropped by 46.9% (from 84,221 tonnes to 44,732 tonnes), and exported quantities plunged by 59.3% (from 71,316 tonnes to 28,995 tonnes) — as shown in the General Overview trade data.

This divergence between value and volume trends points to a significant repricing of EU gearbox exports: the unit value of exported gearboxes nearly doubled (+81.1%), suggesting a shift toward higher-value, more specialised products, or simply the pass-through of inflationary and energy-cost pressures.

1.2 EU domestic production expanded dramatically

The contraction of external trade volumes occurred against the backdrop of a remarkable expansion in EU domestic production. According to production volume data, the number of gearboxes produced within the EU rose from approximately 60 million units in 2015 to over 284 million units in 2025 — an increase of 373.9%. Production value grew by 118.4%, from €8.54 billion to €18.65 billion. The faster growth in unit counts than in value reflects a declining per-unit price, consistent with economies of scale and cost competition.

This surge in domestic output is the single most important structural explanation for the decline in import volumes. As EU-based assembly lines expanded capacity — particularly in Spain, Italy, and Portugal — the need for imported gearboxes diminished. The EU thus shifted from a position of moderate external dependence toward greater self-sufficiency in this component category.

1.3 The trade deficit narrowed substantially

The EU's trade balance in CN 87084020 was consistently negative (i.e., a net import position) but improved markedly over the decade. The deficit shrank from €412 million in 2015 to just €124 million in 2025, a 70.0% improvement. In net-import-reliance terms, the EU moved from −22.3% to −63.7%, indicating that by 2025 the EU was a substantially larger net exporter relative to its own consumption — a reversal of the mid-decade position. The net import reliance data confirms that the peak net-import position occurred around 2017–2018, after which the trend reversed.

2. A Dramatic Reorientation of Trade Partners

2.1 Japan's collapse and China's rise reshaped the import side

The most striking structural shift on the import side was the near-total displacement of Japan by China as the EU's primary gearbox supplier. Japan, which supplied €744 million worth of gearboxes in 2015 — representing roughly 68% of all EU imports — saw its exports to the EU collapse to just €106 million by 2025 (−85.8%). Over the same period, China's exports to the EU surged from €24 million to €300 million (+1,154%), making it the EU's largest single import source by value in 2025.

Source: top partners by value.

This Japan-to-China transition likely reflects several converging factors: the repositioning of Japanese OEMs' production footprints (including assembly in China), China's own rapid build-out of gearbox manufacturing capacity, and cost competitiveness. The simultaneous decline of South Korea (−77.8%) and Argentina (−84.4%) as suppliers further underscores the concentration of import growth in China. Notably, the United States also grew as a supplier (+136.4%), potentially reflecting transatlantic intra-firm shipments from US-based Tier-1 suppliers.

2.2 Exports pivoted from the United Kingdom and China toward Türkiye and Morocco

On the export side, the geographic reorientation was equally dramatic. The United Kingdom — historically the EU's largest export destination for this product — saw EU gearbox shipments fall from €227 million to €79 million (−65.1%), a decline that likely reflects both the disruption of Brexit and the UK's own evolving automotive supply chain. Exports to China collapsed by 92.7%, from €151 million to just €11 million, consistent with China's increasing self-sufficiency in gearbox production.

In contrast, exports to Türkiye surged from €42 million to €221 million (+423.6%), making Türkiye the EU's single largest export market by 2025. Morocco also grew steadily (+16.2%), while Mexico expanded by 59.4%. The rise of Türkiye and Morocco is consistent with the broader trend of nearshoring and regionalised supply chains, as both countries host significant and growing automotive assembly operations that source components from EU-based suppliers.

Source: top partners by value.

2.3 EU member states underwent a parallel internal reallocation

The partner-country realignment was mirrored by significant shifts among EU member states themselves. Spain emerged as the EU's dominant gearbox exporter, increasing shipments from €146 million to €375 million (+156.8%) — by far the largest absolute growth of any member state. Portugal also expanded its export role dramatically (+183.5%). Meanwhile, France's exports collapsed from €202 million to under €6 million (−97.1%), Germany's fell by 72.9%, and Czechia's essentially vanished (−99.9%).

Source: top reporters by value.

On the import side, Belgium's role expanded extraordinarily — from just €1 million to €133 million (+12,704%) — suggesting the emergence of Belgium (likely through the port of Antwerp) as a major entry point for gearbox imports, possibly serving as a logistics hub for onward distribution within the EU.

3. Volatility, Concentration, and the EU's Evolving Strategic Position

3.1 Import-source diversification reduced concentration risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import sources declined from 4,906 to 2,944 (−40.0%), moving from a moderately concentrated to a more diversified supplier base. This is a direct consequence of the shift away from Japan's dominant position toward a more balanced portfolio including China, the United States, Mexico, and others. A lower HHI implies reduced vulnerability to supply disruptions from any single origin country — a consideration that gained strategic salience during the COVID-19 pandemic and amid rising geopolitical tensions.

However, concentration on the export side rose slightly, from an HHI of 1,930 to 2,679 (+38.8%), reflecting the growing weight of Türkiye as a single destination. This increased export-side concentration represents a potential vulnerability if political or economic conditions in key destination markets were to deteriorate.

3.2 Several partner relationships exhibited extreme volatility

The volatility analysis reveals that several trade relationships displayed high instability (coefficient of variation > 1.0). On the import side, trade with India (CV = 1.44), Thailand (CV = 1.83), and the United Kingdom (CV = 1.08 — as a reclassified non-EU partner from 2021) showed the greatest swings. On the export side, the most volatile relationships included Türkiye (CV = 1.47), Algeria (CV = 1.45), the Russian Federation (CV = 1.35), and the Republic of Korea (CV = 1.66).

These high-volatility relationships tend to involve either rapidly scaling trade flows (as with China and Türkiye) or flows subject to geopolitical disruption (as with Russia). The Turkish export relationship, in particular, exhibited a shock event in 2023: a price abnormality of 26.9 coinciding with a 224.4% shift in value, likely reflecting the rapid scaling of Turkey's domestic vehicle assembly and its reliance on EU-sourced gearbox components. A Chinese import-price shock was also detected in 2020 (abnormality 48.8), coinciding with pandemic-related supply disruptions.

3.3 The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter in a strategically sensitive component

Perhaps the most consequential finding is the EU's transition from a modest net-importer to a pronounced net-exporter of motor vehicle gearboxes. The net import reliance moved from −22.3% in 2015 to −63.7% in 2025, and the export propensity of EU production rose from 35.5% to 65.8%. This indicates that the EU's gearbox sector is not only meeting domestic demand but increasingly oriented toward global markets.

The specialisation data for 2025 highlights that Portugal (RSCA = 0.80), Italy (RSCA = 0.68), and Spain (RSCA = 0.54) are the most specialised EU producers and exporters of this product, each showing a revealed comparative advantage well above the EU average. Italy alone accounts for 41.4% of EU production volume in this category, underlining its centrality to the European gearbox supply chain.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in motor vehicle gearboxes (CN 87084020) underwent a profound structural transformation. External trade volumes declined sharply as domestic production expanded by nearly fourfold in unit terms. The import landscape was redrawn: Japan's dominance collapsed, replaced by China's rapid ascent, while exports pivoted from the UK and China toward Türkiye and Morocco — reflecting both Brexit-related disruptions and the broader regionalisation of automotive supply chains. Spain and Portugal emerged as the EU's primary export hubs, displacing France and Germany. Meanwhile, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, with export propensity rising to nearly 66% of production.

These shifts carry strategic implications. On the one hand, the diversification of import sources (lower HHI) and rising self-sufficiency reduce the EU's vulnerability to single-supplier disruptions. On the other hand, growing export-side concentration — particularly in Türkiye — introduces new dependencies. The gearbox sector's trajectory also foreshadows the broader challenges of the automotive transition: as the EU accelerates toward electrified powertrains, the demand dynamics for conventional gearbox components under this tariff line are likely to evolve further, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in ways that extend well beyond the patterns observed in this decade.