Market evolution: Modified starches (CN 35051090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in modified starches (excluding etherified starches, esterified starches and dextrins) classified under customs code 35051090 over the period 2015–2025. The product falls within CN heading 3505, covering dextrins and other modified starches, and corresponds to PRODCOM code 10.62.11.70 for dextrins and other modified starches including esterified or etherified variants.

The period under review reveals a striking transformation of the EU's position in this market. From 2015 to 2025, the EU shifted from a moderately positive trade surplus to a strongly export-oriented posture, with the trade balance expanding nearly fivefold, from €22.8 million to €113.5 million (+397.6%). This structural shift was driven by surging exports, declining import volumes, and significant changes in both partner geography and market concentration.

1. The EU's transformation into a dominant net exporter

Export growth significantly outpaced import decline

The decade was characterised by a pronounced asymmetry between export and import trajectories. EU exports grew from €64.0 million to €151.0 million in value (+135.9%), while the quantity exported rose from 57,000 to 92,400 tonnes (+62.1%). The faster growth in value relative to quantity indicates rising unit export prices, which increased from €1,122/t to €1,632/t (+45.5%).

By contrast, imports fell from €41.2 million to €37.5 million in value (−9.0%), but the decline in volume was far steeper: from 31,000 to just 16,100 tonnes (−48.1%). The divergence between the mild value decline and the sharp volume collapse implies a significant increase in unit import prices, from €1,329/t to €2,329/t (+75.3%).

Source: General Overview — trade

The EU's net exporter position strengthened dramatically

The net import reliance metric confirms this structural shift. In 2015, the EU already had a negative net import reliance of −19.6% (indicating it was a net exporter), but by 2025 this had deepened to −50.1% — a change of −155.8%. In other words, the EU now exports roughly twice as much value in modified starches as it imports.

Alongside this, export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 27.9% to 40.0% (+43.6%), indicating that EU producers have become significantly more export-oriented over the decade.

2. Geographic diversification and shifting partner dynamics

Import sources have diversified markedly

The concentration of EU imports fell substantially, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) declining from 4,244 to 2,642 (−37.7%) by value. This shift from a highly concentrated to a moderately concentrated import market reflects both the decline of the United Kingdom as a supplier — partly a consequence of Brexit — and the rise of new sources.

Source: Top partners — imports

The United Kingdom, which accounted for over 60% of EU import value in 2015, saw its share collapse by 74.5%. In parallel, the United States more than doubled its exports to the EU, becoming the largest single supplier by 2025. Emerging suppliers such as Serbia (+351.6%), Türkiye (+1,707.1%), Brazil (+820.9%), and Ukraine (from negligible levels to €531,616) have filled part of the gap, reflecting a deliberate or structural diversification away from the UK dependency.

Export destinations broadened toward emerging markets

On the export side, concentration also declined, with the HHI falling from 1,423 to 991 (−30.3%). The EU's traditional export destinations — the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States — remained important, but the most dramatic growth occurred in emerging markets.

Source: Top partners — exports

China stands out as the fastest-growing destination, with a tenfold increase from €710,587 to €7,870,263. The United States became the third-largest destination with exports of €25.2 million, a near-quadrupling. Türkiye also emerged as a major market, more than tripling its intake of EU modified starches. These trends suggest that EU producers are capitalising on rising industrial demand in Asia and the wider Mediterranean region.

Internal EU specialisation is concentrated in a few key member states

The specialisation analysis reveals that modified starch exports are heavily concentrated in a handful of member states. The Netherlands (RSCA: 0.447), Denmark (0.400), Germany (0.187), and Belgium (0.155) are the most specialised exporters, collectively accounting for the vast majority of EU external exports. Germany alone represented €36.4 million in exports in 2025 (+46.2% vs. 2015), while the Netherlands led at €50.9 million (+155.5%).

Source: Top reporters — exports

The particularly strong growth from Denmark (+609%), France (+309%), and Sweden (+990%) suggests that several member states substantially scaled up their modified starch export capacity during this decade, potentially linked to investments in food processing, paper, or textile industries that use modified starches as inputs.

3. Price dynamics, volatility, and external shocks

Rising prices have reshaped both sides of the trade ledger

A persistent theme across the decade is rising unit prices on both the import and export sides. Export prices increased from €1,122/t to €1,632/t (+45.5%), while import prices rose even faster from €1,329/t to €2,329/t (+75.3%). The widening of the import–export price differential — the EU now pays significantly more per tonne for its imports than it earns on its exports — is consistent with a market where the EU imports specialised, higher-value modified starches (potentially for niche applications) while exporting larger volumes of more commodity-grade products.

EU production data supports this interpretation: domestic production volumes remained broadly stable (around 1.8 billion kg), but production value surged from approximately €1.12 billion to €2.10 billion (+87.1%), indicating that EU producers have been able to command significantly higher prices for their output.

Volatility is concentrated in specific bilateral relationships

The volatility analysis reveals that trade flows with certain partners are far more volatile than others. On the import side, Ukraine (coefficient of variation: 1.85), Türkiye (1.12), Brazil (1.10), and the United Kingdom (1.01) exhibited the highest volatility — the first three reflecting the early-stage and erratic nature of these supply relationships, and the UK reflecting the structural disruption caused by Brexit.

On the export side, the Russian Federation (CV: 0.97), Tunisia (0.80), Algeria (0.78), and Türkiye (0.67) showed the highest volatility, while trade with the United Kingdom (0.25) and Switzerland (0.09) was remarkably stable — consistent with deep, well-established trade links.

Three notable price shocks punctuated the decade

The shock detection identified three significant anomalies:

Source: Supply shocks

The most dramatic was a near-quadrupling of EU export prices to the Russian Federation in 2023, likely connected to the sanctions and trade disruptions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which severely restricted supply channels and inflated prices for whatever trade still occurred. The 2019 US price shock — a 32.5% drop coinciding with a period of trade tensions — affected the single largest export market (23.8% of value), making it the most consequential event for EU exporters despite a lower abnormality score.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in modified starches (CN 35051090) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with exports more than doubling in value while import volumes nearly halved. This shift was accompanied by a significant diversification of trade partners: the UK's dominance as an import source diminished sharply, while the United States, Serbia, Türkiye, and Brazil emerged as key suppliers; on the export side, China, Türkiye, and the United States became fast-growing destinations.

The market's structural evolution also brought rising prices on both sides, with production value increasing substantially even as volumes remained stable — suggesting a move up the value chain. However, this growth has not been without fragility: trade with several partners remains highly volatile, and the price shocks observed in 2019 (United States) and 2023 (Russia) demonstrate the EU's exposure to geopolitical disruption, even as the declining HHI indicators point to a healthier, more diversified trade structure overall.