Market evolution: Modified starches (CN 350510) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in dextrins and other modified starches (CN 350510) over the 2015–2025 period. This product category, which covers dextrins, pregelatinised starches, and etherified or esterified starches, serves as a critical input to the food, paper, textile, and adhesive industries. The European Union is a major global producer and a structurally strong net exporter of these products. Over the decade examined, EU export value rose from approximately €588 million in 2015 to €802 million in 2025 (+36.4%), while import value grew more modestly from €110 million to €121 million (+10.5%). The resulting trade surplus widened from €479 million to €681 million (+42.3%). Behind these aggregate figures, however, lie three distinct dynamics: a fundamental shift from volume-driven to price-driven trade, a significant reorientation of export and import partners shaped by geopolitical events, and a deepening specialisation of certain EU member states in modified starch production.

1. From volume to value: how rising prices reshaped EU trade

EU exports surged in value despite falling volumes

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the growing divergence between export values and export quantities. While EU exports of CN 350510 to non-EU countries grew by 36.4% in value (from €588 million to €802 million), physical volumes actually declined by 16.1%, falling from 639,000 tonnes to 536,000 tonnes. The average export unit price rose by 62.5%, from €920/t to €1,496/t. This indicates that the EU's improved trade performance in this sector has been entirely price-driven — a reflection of both structural inflation in energy and raw material costs (particularly post-2021) and a possible shift toward higher-value specialty starches.

Source: General Overview

Etherified and esterified starches dominate but "other modified starches" saw explosive value growth

Breaking down CN 350510 by its three sub-headings reveals that the composition of EU trade has shifted notably. Etherified or esterified starches (CN 35051050) remain the dominant category, accounting for 70% of export value in 2025 (€563 million). However, the most dramatic growth was in "other modified starches" (CN 35051090), whose export value nearly tripled from €64 million in 2015 to €151 million in 2025, even as volumes grew more moderately from 57,000 to 92,000 tonnes — implying a sharp rise in unit values (from €1,122/t to €1,632/t).

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

On the import side, dextrins (CN 35051010) experienced an extraordinary price surge: import unit prices jumped from €1,403/t in 2015 to a peak of €4,321/t in 2023 before easing to €3,194/t in 2025, while import volumes fluctuated between 3,800 and 7,500 tonnes. This suggests either supply constraints in specific dextrin-producing countries or a compositional shift toward higher-grade specialty dextrins.

EU net export surplus widened sharply

The EU's net import reliance — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — deepened from −19.6% in 2015 to −50.1% in 2025. In other words, the EU's net export position roughly doubled relative to domestic production. This occurred even as domestic production volumes remained broadly stable (from approximately 1.85 billion kg to 1.80 billion kg), while production value rose by 87.1% (from €1.12 billion to €2.10 billion). The EU is thus producing roughly the same quantity of modified starches but selling them — both domestically and internationally — at significantly higher prices.

2. Geopolitical shocks and the reshaping of trade partnerships

Russia's near-total exit from EU export markets

The single most dramatic shift in EU trade partnerships for CN 350510 was the collapse of exports to the Russian Federation. From €43.9 million in 2015 and a peak of €70.2 million in 2018, exports to Russia plummeted to just €0.6 million in 2025 — a decline of 98.7%. This collapse is directly attributable to the sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the associated trade disruptions. The volatility analysis confirms this was among the most volatile bilateral trade flows, with a coefficient of variation of 0.72 for export values to Russia, and a detected price shock in 2023 showing a 507% price shift.

The United Kingdom: the Brexit reorientation

Brexit produced contrasting effects on the two sides of EU-UK trade in modified starches. EU imports from the United Kingdom fell sharply from €41.1 million in 2015 to just €17.7 million in 2025 (−57.0%), reflecting the new customs frictions and regulatory barriers that made UK-origin starches less competitive on the EU market. Meanwhile, EU exports to the UK actually increased from €78.5 million to €113.2 million (+44.2%), making the UK the EU's largest single export destination by value. The UK's coefficient of variation for imports from the EU was remarkably low at 0.057, indicating stable demand — the UK appears to have remained a reliable, high-volume buyer of EU modified starches even after Brexit.

Source: Partners

New and growing import sources: Ukraine, Türkiye, and Serbia

On the import side, several new supply sources gained importance over the decade. The most striking case is Ukraine: EU imports from Ukraine went from virtually zero (€210 in 2015) to €8.1 million in 2025, peaking at €18.0 million in 2023. This surge aligns with the EU's autonomous trade measures granting Ukraine preferential access to the EU market following the Russian invasion. Similarly, imports from Türkiye grew from €0.6 million to €10.0 million (+1,691%), with a detected price shock in 2022 (abnormality score of 42.2, +48.3% price shift). Serbia also grew from €0.9 million to €3.8 million (+331%). These shifts collectively reduced the concentration of EU imports: the import HHI (by value) fell from 2,714 to 1,576 (−42%), moving the import structure from a moderately concentrated market toward a more diversified one.

Export diversification toward Asia and emerging markets

EU export destinations also shifted meaningfully. While the UK, Türkiye, and the United States remained the top three markets, several Asian destinations grew in importance. Exports to the Republic of Korea nearly doubled from €21.5 million to €42.9 million (+99.7%), while Japan grew from €44.9 million to €57.3 million (+27.7%). The export HHI declined from 719 to 566 (−21%), confirming that EU exports became somewhat more diversified geographically — even though the loss of the Russian market partially offset the gains elsewhere.

3. European specialisation and the role of key member states

The Netherlands consolidates its position as the EU's leading exporter

Within the EU, the Netherlands was the largest exporter of CN 350510 throughout the period, growing from €185 million in 2015 to €278 million in 2025 (+50.3%). This represents 34.6% of total EU extra-EU export value in 2025. The Netherlands also shows the second-highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) among EU members at 0.39, with an RCA of 2.3, confirming its strong specialisation in this product. Germany (€160M → €198M, +23.8%) and France (€108M → €135M, +24.4%) followed as the second and third largest exporters. Notably, Belgium saw the most dramatic growth in percentage terms: from €17.3 million to €48.4 million (+179%), suggesting either new capacity or expanded re-export activity.

Source: Reporters

Northern and Western Europe dominate specialisation

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a clear geographic pattern: Lithuania (RSCA 0.56, RCA 3.58), the Netherlands (RSCA 0.39, RCA 2.30), France (RSCA 0.34, RCA 2.03), Finland (RSCA 0.34, RCA 2.02), and Sweden (RSCA 0.28, RCA 1.77) are the most specialised EU exporters. These countries benefit from large starch-processing industries built around local cereal and potato production. Conversely, southern and smaller EU states such as Luxembourg (RSCA −1.00), Ireland (RSCA −0.99), and Greece (RSCA −0.93) show no meaningful specialisation in this product.

EU production volume stable but value rising sharply

EU domestic production of CN 350510 remained broadly stable in volume (approximately 1.85 billion kg in 2015 versus 1.80 billion kg in 2025, −2.5%), but its value nearly doubled (from €1.12 billion to €2.10 billion, +87.1%). This mirrors the price dynamics observed in trade data and suggests that EU manufacturers are capturing higher margins, likely through a combination of product upgrading toward higher-value modified starches and the pass-through of increased energy and raw material costs.

EU export propensity rises significantly

The export propensity — the share of EU production exported to non-EU markets — increased from 27.9% in 2015 to 40.0% in 2025 (+43.6%). Combined with trade intensity rising from 35.3% to 43.8%, this confirms that the EU modified starch sector has become significantly more internationally oriented over the decade. The salience analysis identifies export propensity as the most prominent vulnerability indicator (score of 53.6 versus 30.2 for trade intensity), reflecting the fact that EU producers are now substantially more dependent on third-country markets for their revenue.

Conclusion

The EU modified starch market (CN 350510) has undergone a significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most fundamental change has been the shift from volume-driven to price-driven trade performance: EU exports grew by over a third in value while declining by a sixth in volume, reflecting both inflationary pressures and a probable move up the value chain toward specialty starches. The trade surplus expanded substantially, and the EU deepened its role as a major global supplier, with export propensity rising from 28% to 40% of domestic production.

Geopolitical events reshaped the geography of trade. Russia's near-total exit as an export market was the most dramatic single change, while Brexit created a striking asymmetry: UK imports from the EU grew even as UK exports to the EU collapsed. New import sources — notably Ukraine and Türkiye — emerged, reducing import concentration and diversifying EU supply chains. Within the EU, the Netherlands, Germany, and France continued to dominate exports, while production volumes held steady and production values rose sharply, indicating a sector successfully capturing higher margins.

Looking forward, the sector's increased reliance on extra-EU export markets (reflected in the rising export propensity salience score) merits attention from a trade policy perspective, particularly given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties that have already reshaped partner relationships over this period.