Market evolution: Modified starches (CN 35051050) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in etherified or esterified starches (excluding dextrins), classified under CN 35051050, over the period 2015–2025. Modified starches are critical inputs for the food, paper, textile, and pharmaceutical industries. The EU is a major global producer and exporter of these products, with a well-established domestic production base of roughly 1.8 billion kg annually. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade balance in this product category widened substantially, reaching nearly €496 million by 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie significant structural shifts — falling physical volumes, surging unit prices, dramatic partner realignments driven by geopolitical events, and a deepening of the EU's role as a net exporter.

1. Surging Values Conceal a Persistent Volume Erosion

The most striking macro-level dynamic in EU modified starch trade over 2015–2025 is the divergence between values and volumes. Export revenues rose by 26.2% while export quantities fell by 23.9%, a pattern entirely explained by a 65.8% increase in unit export prices. A similar, though milder, trend characterises imports.

Export prices more than offset volume losses

Source: General Overview — trade

Export prices peaked around 2022–2023 at approximately €1,762/t (the period maximum), reflecting the global commodity price surge triggered by the energy crisis and post-pandemic supply chain disruptions. Although prices have since corrected, the 2025 level of €1,418/t remains 66% above 2015, suggesting a structural repricing of modified starch products — likely linked to higher energy, feedstock (corn, wheat, potato), and processing costs.

Import prices followed a gentler upward trajectory (+6.9%), which implies that the EU's export basket has shifted towards higher-value specialised starches, or that EU producers have been able to pass through cost increases more effectively on export markets.

Domestic production volumes stagnated while production values surged

EU production volumes remained broadly flat — from 1,846,000 tonnes in 2015 to 1,800,000 tonnes in 2025 (−2.5%) — yet production values nearly doubled, rising from €1,122 million to €2,100 million (+87.1%). This mirrors the price dynamics seen in trade data and confirms that value growth has been driven overwhelmingly by price appreciation rather than physical output expansion.

The trade balance widened on the back of price effects

Source: General Overview — trade

The trade surplus expanded by nearly 30%, reaching its maximum at €515.6 million before settling at €496.4 million in 2025. This improvement was achieved despite lower physical export volumes, underlining the price-driven nature of the surplus expansion.

2. Geopolitical Ruptures Reshaped the EU's Trade Partner Landscape

The period 2015–2025 saw a profound reconfiguration of the EU's trade relationships in modified starches. Three events stand out: the United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions regime, and the rapid emergence of Türkiye and Ukraine as import suppliers.

EU exports to Russia collapsed almost entirely

Source: Top partners by value — exports

EU exports to Russia fell from €42.2 million in 2015 to just €301,000 in 2025 — a near-total collapse of 99.3%. This dramatic decline is directly attributable to the EU sanctions imposed following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, combined with Russia's own counter-sanctions and import-substitution policies. The price shock detection confirms an extraordinary anomaly: EU exports to Russia recorded a price shift of +543.9% in 2023 (abnormality score 33.5), consistent with residual high-value niche shipments at elevated unit prices rather than routine trade.

Asian and African markets absorbed redirected volumes

The loss of the Russian market was substantially offset by growth in other destinations. South Korean imports of EU modified starches more than doubled (+105.3%), while South Africa nearly doubled (+95.7%) and Japan grew by 31.8%. The United Kingdom, while remaining the largest single export destination at €64.4 million, grew more modestly at 20.1% — partly reflecting post-Brexit frictions, though less severely than initially feared for this product category. EU export concentration decreased (export HHI fell from 703 to 497, −29.3%), indicating a healthier diversification of export markets.

Import sourcing shifted dramatically towards the EU's near neighbourhood

Source: Top partners by value — imports

Two import growth stories stand out. Turkish exports to the EU surged from €526,000 to €8.6 million (+1,538%), while Ukrainian exports jumped from a negligible €42,000 to €7.5 million. The Ukraine trajectory is particularly noteworthy: the coefficient of variation for Ukrainian imports stands at 0.79, reflecting high instability driven by the wartime disruption of 2022 and the subsequent EU trade liberalisation measures (autonomous trade preferences). Türkiye's growth, meanwhile, aligns with its emergence as a major starch processing hub; however, import volatility from Türkiye is also very high (CV of 0.97), and a major import price shock was detected in 2022 (abnormality 98.8, price shift +48.2%).

The decline in UK-origin imports (−71.4%) largely reflects the post-Brexit reclassification of intra-EU trade as extra-EU trade, followed by genuine trade diversion as customs formalities and rules of origin added friction.

Import concentration fell sharply (import HHI from 2,761 to 1,736, −37.1%), reflecting the broadening of supplier origins away from the previously dominant US-Thailand-UK triangle.

3. The EU Deepens Its Role as a Global Modified Starch Exporter

Beyond partner shifts, the period reveals a structural strengthening of the EU's position as a net exporter, driven by rising export propensity, growing specialisation in select Member States, and persistent production leadership.

Net export reliance intensified significantly

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability section

The EU was already a net exporter in 2015, but its net export reliance more than doubled in absolute terms (from −19.6% to −50.1%). This means the EU's export surplus in value terms now roughly equals half its domestic production value. The most salient driver is the sharp rise in export propensity, which climbed from 27.9% to 40.0%. In other words, an increasing share of EU output is being directed to extra-EU markets, suggesting that EU producers are actively seeking international outlets — possibly because domestic demand growth has not kept pace with production capabilities, or because higher international prices have made exports more attractive.

The Netherlands and Germany anchor EU export leadership

Source: Top reporters by value — exports

The Netherlands alone accounts for over a third of EU exports (€210.8 million in 2025), consistent with its role as a major starch-processing hub and its revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 2.32, RSCA of 0.40). Belgium's export surge (+218.8%) stands out as the fastest growth among major exporters, potentially reflecting capacity expansion or increased re-export activity through Antwerp. Among the most specialised EU Member States, Lithuania leads with an RSCA of 0.67, followed by Finland (0.44) and Sweden (0.42).

Import-side concentration shifted from Germany towards newer entrants

Source: Top reporters by value — imports

Germany remained the EU's top importer but saw volumes decline by 12.5%. Czechia emerged as a striking new importer, jumping from €343,000 to €5.3 million (+1,437%), likely reflecting supply chain integration with neighbouring countries and increased re-processing activity in Central Europe. France also saw a notable increase (+216%), possibly linked to changes in intra-EU sourcing patterns after Brexit.

Conclusion

The EU's modified starch market over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural resilience amid profound disruption. Despite flat domestic production volumes and the near-total loss of the Russian export market, EU producers maintained and expanded their export revenues through a combination of price increases (+66% in unit export prices), market diversification towards Asia and Africa, and a rising share of output directed to international markets (export propensity from 28% to 40%). The EU's net export position strengthened dramatically, with the trade surplus reaching €496 million and net import reliance at −50% by 2025.

At the same time, import dynamics have been reshaped by geopolitical events: the rapid emergence of Türkiye and Ukraine as suppliers, the decline in UK-origin imports post-Brexit, and growing import concentration risks. The detected price shocks — particularly from Türkiye in 2022 and the residual Russia trade in 2023 — underscore the continued sensitivity of this market to external disruptions. Looking ahead, the key question is whether the price-driven export value growth of recent years can be sustained as global commodity prices normalise, and whether the EU can maintain its diversification gains in an increasingly fragmented trade environment.