Market evolution: Low voltage relays (CN 853641) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the European Union's trade in low voltage relays (customs code 853641, "Relays for a voltage ≤ 60 V") over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The analysis covers EU trade with non-EU countries, examining trends in value, volume, trade partners, and internal market structure. The period was characterized by significant shifts, most notably a transition from a small trade surplus to a structural deficit, driven by stronger growth in import values compared to exports. This suggests an increasing EU dependence on foreign suppliers for this critical component used in numerous electrical and electronic applications.

1. A Decade of Shifting Trade Balances: From Surplus to Deficit

The EU's trade balance for low voltage relays underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. What began as a period of slight export advantage evolved into one of net import reliance, reflecting changing global supply chains and demand dynamics.

1.1 Import Growth Strongly Outpaced Export Expansion

Over the period, the total value of EU imports of CN 853641 grew by 43.7%, rising from €395.4 million to €568.3 million. In contrast, export values grew by 27.0%, from €433.4 million to €550.6 million. This differential growth caused the EU's trade balance to swing from a €38.0 million surplus in 2015 to a €17.7 million deficit in 2025. The volume (net mass) tells a similar story: import quantities grew by 23.8%, while export quantities were nearly stagnant at +0.1%.

(Source: General Overview)

1.2 The Composition of Trade Partners Evolved Dramatically

The list of the EU's top trade partners revealed significant geographical shifts. On the import side, China solidified its position as the dominant supplier, with its exports to the EU growing by 57.6% to €251.7 million. Japan also showed strong growth (+51.1%). Meanwhile, imports from the Philippines saw a notable decline (-54.4%), and imports from Serbia remained relatively stable.

The export landscape was reshaped by a dramatic surge in sales to Morocco (+151.2%), making it the EU's top export destination by 2025. Exports to the United States also grew healthily. A standout decline was the near-total collapse of EU exports to the Russian Federation (-100.0%), falling from €16.7 million to a negligible €1,274, likely reflecting the impact of sanctions.

(Source: Partners)

1.3 Rising Import Prices and Unit Value Divergence

Price trends underscore the changing dynamics. The average import price per tonne increased by 16.1% (from €36,366 to €42,218), while the average export price rose by a steeper 27.0% (from €46,855 to €59,485). This price divergence means the EU is paying more for its imports and charging more for its exports. The higher export price suggests a potential shift in the EU's export basket towards more specialized or higher-value relays.

2. A Fragmented Internal Landscape: Specialization and Declining Production Volumes

While trade with the rest of the world was growing, the EU's internal production of low voltage relays showed a contrasting trend of declining volume but increasing value, alongside significant disparities in specialization among Member States.

2.1 EU Production Shifted to Higher Value but Lower Volume

Data from the PRODCOM survey indicates a dramatic 62.4% decline in the physical quantity of relays produced within the EU between 2015 and 2025, falling from 526 million to 198 million pieces. Paradoxically, the production value increased by 7.6% over the same period, from €468.2 million to €503.8 million. This indicates a fundamental shift in the EU's production profile—away from high-volume, standard relays towards lower-volume, higher-value-added segments. The trade data's constant-weight price increase supports this interpretation.

(Source: Production Volumes)

2.2 Marked Differences in National Specialization

The degree of specialization in relay production varies widely across the EU. Malta and Portugal are the most specialised exporters (as measured by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage - RSCA), though their share of total EU export value is small (0.003% and 7.3%, respectively). Among the major economies, Germany and France exhibit a moderate comparative advantage.

Conversely, countries like Greece, Luxembourg, and Ireland show strong negative specialization, meaning they are net importers of this product category. This fragmentation highlights a complex intra-EU supply chain where some countries are production hubs while others are primarily consumption markets.

(Source: Specialisation)

2.3 Import Concentration Increased, Export Markets Remained Diversified

The concentration of EU imports from non-EU countries, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value, increased by 12.7% from 2,062 to 2,323 over the period. This indicates a slight consolidation of import sources, moving the market towards a moderately concentrated structure. In contrast, the HHI for exports remained low and stable (around 770-790), indicating that the EU's export markets for relays remain highly diversified. This asymmetry suggests different risk profiles: the EU's supply base is becoming slightly more concentrated, while its sales base is not.

(Source: Concentration)

3. Navigating External Dependencies and Market Shocks

The period was not without disruptions. Key supply-side events and the evolving metrics of trade vulnerability paint a picture of a market increasingly exposed to external risks.

3.1 Significant Supply Shocks and Price Volatility

The data detects several significant shocks. A major price shock affected EU imports from the Philippines in 2022, with prices spiking by 11.1% above expected levels. For EU exports, a notable supply shock to Russia in 2024 saw shipments collapse by 99.3%. Volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), was particularly high for EU exports to Russia (CV=0.65) and imports from Morocco (CV=1.21), indicating highly unstable trade flows with these partners.

(Source: Supply Shocks)

3.2 Rising Import Reliance and Trade Intensity

The EU's net import reliance for low voltage relays deteriorated significantly. This metric moved from -5.8% in 2015 (indicating a net exporter position) to +0.4% in 2025 (indicating a net importer position). The peak reliance reached nearly 24% in 2022, coinciding with the post-pandemic demand surge and supply chain pressures.

Simultaneously, the EU's trade intensity—the ratio of trade (imports+exports) to domestic production—increased by 58.3% to 103.0% in 2025. This means the total value of goods crossing the EU's borders now exceeds the value of its domestic production. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled, reaching 106.3%, further underscoring the EU's deep integration into global relay supply chains, both as a supplier and a consumer.

(Source: Net Import Reliance)

3.3 A Tale of Two Product Segments

The breakdown by current rating reveals distinct dynamics for the two sub-products. The segment for >2 A relays (85364190) dominates by volume, accounting for the vast majority of both imports and exports (e.g., 92% of import tonnes and 93% of export tonnes in 2025). It is the workhorse of the trade flow.

In contrast, the segment for ≤2 A relays (85364110) is a much smaller market by volume but commands significantly higher prices. In 2025, its average export price per tonne (€127,246) was 2.3 times higher than the price for the >2 A segment (€54,620). This price premium grew over the decade, suggesting increasing specialization or value-add in the lower-current segment. The high volatility in the ≤2 A export price (CV=0.29) compared to the >2 A segment (CV=0.13) indicates it is a more niche and potentially more volatile market.

(Source: Product Compare)

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU's market for low voltage relays (CN 853641) experienced a structural transformation. The bloc transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer, with import values growing nearly twice as fast as export values. This shift occurred alongside a deliberate move in EU domestic production away from high-volume manufacturing towards higher-value output.

The trade landscape is marked by rising import reliance, particularly on China, and increasing vulnerability to supply shocks, as evidenced by the collapse in exports to Russia and price spikes from other partners. The market is also characterized by a stark divide between the high-volume, standard-relay trade and a smaller, high-value, and more volatile segment for low-current relays. These trends point to a EU market that is deeply integrated into global value chains, but one that faces growing dependencies and a need for strategic resilience in its supply of these essential components for the electrical and automotive industries.