Market evolution: Connectors and terminals (CN 853690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in products classified under customs code 853690 from 2015 to 2025. This code covers a broad category of electrical apparatus for making connections in low-voltage circuits (≤1000V), excluding fuses, circuit breakers, relays, plugs, and sockets. The analysis focuses on identifying the main dynamics in trade value, volume, pricing, and partner geography, based on the provided annual data. The EU maintained a significant trade surplus in this sector throughout the period, though its character evolved markedly.

For detailed visualizations and further data exploration, refer to the overview dashboard.

The Decoupling of Value and Volume Growth

The most defining feature of the 2015-2025 period is a stark divergence between trade value and physical volume. While the monetary value of both exports and imports increased substantially, the traded tonnage stagnated or declined for exports and grew more moderately for imports, pointing to significant price inflation within the sector.

Export Value Growth Masking Volume Decline

The EU's export value for CN 853690 grew by 19.7% over the period, rising from €3.65 billion in 2015 to €4.37 billion in 2025. However, this headline growth masks a concerning trend in physical volume: exported quantities fell by 16.2%, from 115,937 tonnes to 97,154 tonnes. This combination resulted in a dramatic 42.8% increase in the average export price, from approximately €31,461 per tonne to €44,935 per tonne. This suggests a strategic shift towards higher-value, possibly more technologically advanced, product segments.

Import Growth Fueled by Both Price and Volume Increases

Import dynamics presented a different picture. Import value surged by 51.0%, climbing from €1.86 billion to €2.81 billion. This growth was supported by a more moderate increase in imported volume (+20.2%, from 69,292 to 83,280 tonnes) alongside a 25.6% rise in the average import price (from €26,864 to €33,751 per tonne). The stronger price growth in imports compared to the initial period, but weaker than export price growth, indicates cost pressures across the board, with the EU's exports occupying a higher price tier.

The overall trade balance, while still positive, shrank by 12.9%, from €1.79 billion to €1.56 billion, reflecting the faster growth of import values. The trade trends chart visualizes this price-driven value expansion.

Shifting Geographies of Sourcing and Demand

The EU's partner landscape for CN 853690 underwent significant restructuring, characterized by the strengthening of Asian supply chains and evolving demand from neighboring regions.

China's Consolidating Role in EU Imports

China remained the dominant source of EU imports, and its importance grew. The value of imports from China more than doubled, increasing by 119.6% from €403 million to €886 million. This solidified China's position as the top import partner. Notably, other Asian economies also showed remarkable growth: imports from India and Türkiye (a key manufacturing link to Europe) surged by 252.7% and 268.9% respectively, indicating a diversification of Asian sourcing beyond China alone.

Divergent Trends Among Traditional EU Partners

Trade with other key partners told more nuanced stories:

• The United Kingdom: Post-Brexit trade stabilized. Imports from the UK were flat (-3.1%), while exports to the UK grew robustly by 29.1%.
• Mediterranean Neighbours: Tunisia, a key partner for both imports and exports, saw its import value to the EU decline by 19.0%, while EU exports to Tunisia grew by 16.4%. Morocco became a much more significant export destination, with EU exports growing by 67.1%.
• The United States: The US remained the EU's largest export market, with shipments growing by 42.3% to €692 million. However, imports from the US fell by 8.9%.

This evolving geography is reflected in a modest increase in import concentration, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) rising from 1,247 to 1,409. The partner analysis provides a clear view of these changing trade flows.

Resilient EU Production Amidst Trade Pressures

Despite the rising import bill and shifting trade patterns, the EU's domestic production capacity for these components demonstrated strong growth, suggesting an industry focused on high-value segments.

Robust Growth in Production Value and Volume

EU production data reveals a sector that expanded significantly. The value of production grew by 86.6% over the period (from €4.0 billion to €7.4 billion), outpacing even the growth in trade values. Production volume, measured in number of items, also increased strongly by 58.6% (from 25.6 billion to 40.6 billion items). This indicates that the EU industry was not shrinking but was likely moving towards higher-specification, value-added products where it maintained competitive strength, as evidenced by the rising export unit values.

Specialisation and Internal Market Dynamics

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) shows significant specialisation within the EU. Ireland exhibited very high specialisation (RSCA of 0.85), likely linked to large multinational electronics manufacturers. In contrast, several member states showed negative specialisation, indicating they are net importers of these products. Germany remained the undisputed EU production and export powerhouse, with exports valued at €1.88 billion in 2025, accounting for 43% of total extra-EU exports. Poland emerged as a major import hub, with its imports growing by 308.8%, highlighting the growth of manufacturing and assembly activities in Eastern Europe.

The net import reliance metric, while negative (indicating a trade surplus), moved from -17.3% to -24.4%, confirming that the EU remained a consistent net exporter, but its relative surplus slightly decreased as import growth outpaced export growth in value terms. The specialisation map and production data detail this internal restructuring.

Conclusion

The EU market for low-voltage connectors and terminals (CN 853690) between 2015 and 2025 was characterized by strong price inflation, leading to significant growth in trade values even as physical export volumes declined. The import side was increasingly oriented towards Asia, with China consolidating its position while other regional competitors emerged. Internally, the EU's production base showed resilience and growth, specializing in higher-value segments, as evidenced by rising unit values and robust production figures. While the trade surplus persisted, the faster growth of imports slightly narrowed it. Overall, the sector adapted to global cost pressures by leveraging its strength in high-technology, value-added production, maintaining its status as a major net exporter amidst a transforming global supply landscape.