Market evolution: Indented steel wire coil (CN 72171031) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in product CN 72171031 — indented steel wire in coils, a semi-finished product used primarily in construction (reinforcement meshes, prestressed concrete) and industrial applications. Over the decade spanning 2015 to 2025, the EU underwent a striking transformation: it shifted from a relatively balanced trading position to a decisive net exporter, while the geographic focus of both imports and exports was fundamentally reconfigured. These changes reflect a combination of industrial consolidation, geopolitical disruption, and evolving competitive positioning within the European steel value chain.

1. The EU's Shift from Balance to Net Export Dominance

The trade surplus expanded almost fourfold over the decade

At the start of the period (2015), the EU's trade balance in indented steel wire was already positive at €32.7 million, but it fluctuated significantly — briefly dipping into a small deficit of €-0.8 million at its lowest point. By 2025, the surplus had surged to €119.0 million, representing a cumulative increase of 263.5%. The peak surplus reached €181.3 million.

Imports collapsed while exports grew steadily

The swing was driven by a dramatic contraction in imports and a more moderate rise in exports:

Import volumes fell by 87.5% — from over 120,000 tonnes to barely 15,000 tonnes — while export volumes rose by 26.3%. The net import reliance shifted accordingly, moving from −0.2% (effectively balanced) to +2.2%, confirming the EU's transition to a structurally export-oriented position.

Domestic production consolidated in value despite shrinking volumes

EU production volumes declined by 23.2% (from 3.85 million tonnes to 2.96 million tonnes), yet production value rose by 38.6% (from €2.02 billion to €2.80 billion). This divergence points to significant price inflation and a possible consolidation toward higher-value output. With fewer tonnes produced but more euros earned, the EU steel wire sector appears to have moved up the value chain.

2. A Geographic Reconfiguration on Both Sides of the Ledger

Imports: Eastern suppliers replaced Western European and UK sources

The composition of EU import sources changed dramatically. At the start of the period, imports were concentrated in Belarus, which alone supplied €44.3 million (2015). The United Kingdom, by contrast, contributed €0.5 million in 2015 but effectively disappeared from the trade by 2025 (−98.0%).

By 2025, the import landscape had shifted toward a cluster of Eastern European and Black Sea suppliers:

The most striking development is Russia's emergence as the second-largest supplier, growing from €2.4 million to €28.0 million — a tenfold increase. This likely reflects competitive pricing from Russian mills prior to geopolitical disruptions. Ukraine also grew from near-zero to €4.3 million, likely capturing market share ahead of the disruption caused by the 2022 conflict. Türkiye's rise (+1,415%) mirrors its broader expansion in European steel markets.

Import concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), fell sharply from 8,163 to 3,340 — a 59.1% decline. This indicates a significant diversification away from dependence on a single supplier (Belarus) toward a broader set of origins.

Within the EU, Lithuania and the Baltic states lost their role as import gateways

At the Member State level, Lithuania was the leading EU import reporter in 2015 with €21.3 million — consistent with its role as a transit hub for Belarusian and Russian steel. By 2025, Lithuanian reported imports had fallen to €3.2 million (−85.2%). Germany (-99.2%) and Poland (-97.9%) experienced even steeper declines. Croatia (+89.7%) and Estonia (+33.4%) were among the few Member States where imports actually grew.

Exports: Switzerland became the overwhelmingly dominant destination

On the export side, Switzerland absorbed an extraordinary share of EU output. It grew from €64.7 million (2015) to €112.0 million (2025), a 73.1% increase, reaching a peak of €247.4 million. By 2025, Switzerland alone accounted for the vast majority of the EU's external exports in this product.

Other traditional destinations — the United Kingdom (−95.0%) and Norway (−94.8%) — all but disappeared. In their place, Western Balkan markets surged:

Serbia's rise from €22,000 to €11.5 million is particularly notable, suggesting growing construction demand in the Western Balkans and possibly EU investment in regional infrastructure.

Italy consolidated its position as the EU's export powerhouse

Among EU Member States reporting exports, Italy's dominance grew enormously — from €32.2 million to €126.0 million (+291.4%). Italian specialisation indicators confirm this: with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 and an RCA of 5.88, Italy is by far the most specialised EU producer of this wire. Belgium (RSCA = 0.40) and Czechia (RSCA = 0.37) follow at a distance. Meanwhile, France's exports collapsed from €35.1 million to just €0.1 million (−99.7%), effectively exiting the market.

3. Rising Prices, Price Shocks, and Growing Export Exposure

Unit prices rose substantially on both sides

Both export and import unit prices increased significantly over the period, reflecting global steel price inflation and supply tightness:

Export prices peaked at €974/t (a year where the Swiss price shock was detected), while import prices reached €851/t at their peak. The convergence of import and export prices by 2025 (€653/t vs. €605/t) contrasts with the earlier period where imports were substantially cheaper (€407/t vs. €486/t), suggesting that the cost advantage of non-EU suppliers has eroded.

A major price shock hit Swiss exports in 2021

The volatility analysis detected a significant price shock in EU exports to Switzerland in 2021, with an abnormality score of 8.8 and a unit value shift of +50.3%. This coincides with the post-COVID steel price spike that affected global markets. The shock's magnitude — with Switzerland accounting for nearly 100% of the detected event's value share — underscores the EU's heavy reliance on this single market.

Among import partners, Türkiye (CV = 1.42) and Ukraine (CV = 1.41) showed the highest price volatility, reflecting geopolitical and currency instability. On the export side, Serbia (CV = 1.69), Algeria (CV = 1.66), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV = 1.27) exhibited the most erratic trade flows. Switzerland, despite its dominance, showed remarkably low volatility (CV = 0.19), confirming its role as the EU's most stable outlet.

EU export orientation deepened while vulnerability indicators remained moderate

The EU's trade intensity (the share of production traded externally) rose from 15.1% to 23.8%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 8.3% to 12.6%. The export propensity score (89.3/100) slightly exceeded trade intensity (83.8/100), indicating that the EU's growing international exposure is primarily export-driven rather than import-dependent.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for indented steel wire coils (CN 72171031) underwent a structural transformation. The Union moved from a roughly balanced trading position to a clear net exporter, with a surplus reaching €119 million by 2025. This shift was underpinned by a near-total collapse in imports (−87.5% by volume) and a geographic reorientation: Eastern European and Black Sea suppliers replaced UK and other Western sources, while on the export side, Switzerland absorbed the dominant share and Western Balkan markets (Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro) emerged as fast-growing outlets. Italy consolidated its position as the EU's production and export hub, while France effectively exited the market.

Rising unit prices — reflecting global steel inflation and tighter supply — contributed to higher export revenues even as production volumes contracted. The convergence of import and export unit prices by 2025 suggests that the EU's competitive position has strengthened relative to non-EU suppliers. However, the extreme concentration of exports toward Switzerland (with the detected 2021 price shock serving as a cautionary signal) represents a structural vulnerability that warrants attention. Overall, the EU's indented steel wire sector has become leaner, more export-oriented, and more geographically focused — a trajectory shaped by industrial consolidation, shifting competitive dynamics, and geopolitical realignment.