Market evolution: Halogenated hydrocarbons (CN 2903) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Halogenated derivatives of hydrocarbons (CN 2903) form a diverse family of chemicals spanning chlorinated solvents, fluorinated refrigerants, brominated compounds, and their newer low-GWP replacements. The product heading covers dozens of sub-codes under chapter 29 of the Combined Nomenclature, used across refrigeration, air conditioning, foam-blowing, solvent, and intermediate-chemical applications.

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's external trade in this product group underwent a profound structural transformation. Three interconnected dynamics stand out in the data: a decisive swing from near trade balance to growing import dependence; a regulatory-driven shift in the product mix toward next-generation fluorochemicals; and a radical reorientation of geographic trade flows. The following sections unpack each of these dynamics in turn.

1. A Decisive Swing from Trade Balance to Import Dependence

1.1 The EU moved from a marginal net exporter to a substantial net importer

At the start of the period, the EU's trade balance in CN 2903 was close to equilibrium, with a deficit of just €61.8 million in 2015. By 2025 that deficit had ballooned to €347.1 million — a deterioration of 462%. The net import reliance metric captures the shift starkly: from −1.4 % (a slight net-export position) at the start of the period to +14.1 % by its end, having peaked at 21.9 % along the way.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2 Import volumes collapsed while prices surged, revealing a value-over-volume dynamic

The most striking feature of this shift is the divergence between volume and price. EU import quantities fell by 43.5 %, from 566,226 tonnes in 2015 to just 320,115 tonnes in 2025. Yet import value rose by 32.4 %, because the average import price more than doubled — from €1,282 to €3,002 per tonne (+134.1 %). In other words, the EU is importing far less material by weight but paying significantly more for it. This pattern is consistent with a compositional shift toward higher-value specialty products (see Section 2).

Export dynamics moved in the opposite direction. Export volumes rose 12.4 % (767,897 to 863,259 tonnes), but export prices fell 17.8 % (€865 to €711 per tonne), so total export value actually declined by 7.6 %.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.3 EU domestic production expanded strongly in volume but not proportionally in value

EU production data from Prodcom shows production volumes surging by 538 % over the period — from roughly 376 thousand tonnes to nearly 2.4 million tonnes. Production value, however, rose by a more modest 79 % (€1,086 million to €1,948 million). This divergence implies that the bulk of the additional volume consists of lower-unit-value intermediates rather than high-value specialty chemicals, reinforcing the picture of the EU as an increasingly large producer of commodity halogenated hydrocarbons while relying on imports for the high-value segment.

2. F-Gas Regulation Is Reshaping the Product Mix Toward Next-Generation Fluorochemicals

2.1 HFOs emerged from near-zero visibility to become the EU's single largest halogenated hydrocarbon import by value

The most dramatic product-level development is the arrival of unsaturated fluorinated hydrocarbons — specifically HFO-1234yf, HFO-1234ze, and HFO-1336mzz (CN 290351) — among the EU's top seven imported sub-products from 2022 onward. These compounds, which have negligible ozone-depletion potential and very low global-warming potential, are the direct replacements for HFCs under the EU's F-gas Regulation (EU 2024/573). By 2025, CN 290351 imports had reached €411.7 million in value at an average price of approximately €18,595 per tonne — by far the highest unit value of any sub-product in the group. This single product line now accounts for the single largest share of EU import expenditure in CN 2903.

At the same time, HFC-134a (CN 290345) — the incumbent refrigerant and the largest-volume HFC — entered the import top seven in 2022 at €139.2 million but has since declined to €109.6 million in 2025. Its import price, however, rose from €5,236 to €7,483 per tonne over the same window, consistent with quota-driven supply tightening under the phase-down schedule.

Source: Product segment breakdown

2.2 Traditional chlorinated intermediates have seen their import volumes erode significantly

Among legacy chlorinated products, ethylene dichloride (CN 290315) — the workhorse feedstock for PVC production — saw import volumes plunge from a peak of 446,703 tonnes in 2018 to just 148,207 tonnes in 2025 (−67 %). Import value for this product fell even more sharply, from €193.1 million to €50.3 million. Vinyl chloride (CN 290321), its downstream product, has been more volatile but relatively stable, hovering around 80,000–120,000 tonnes of imports per year. Trichloroethylene (CN 290322) imports declined from 15,908 tonnes in 2017 to just 1,864 tonnes in 2025, reflecting tightening environmental regulation on chlorinated solvents.

On the export side, the product mix has been more stable but shows erosion in certain categories. Notably, exports of halogenated aromatic derivatives (CN 290399) — the highest-unit-value export product — fell from €148.6 million in 2015 to €41.8 million in 2025, a 72 % decline in value. The EU's export basket remains anchored in legacy chlorinated and aromatic compounds, whereas the import basket is rapidly tilting toward advanced fluorochemicals.

2.3 The EU's export specialisation is geographically concentrated in the Benelux

Specialisation data for 2025 confirms that the EU's halogenated-hydrocarbon export capacity is concentrated in a small number of member states. Belgium (RSCA 0.50, RCA 3.01) and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.41, RCA 2.37) are by far the most specialised exporters, together accounting for a major share of total EU export value. The remaining member states show much lower specialisation indices, with several Eastern and Southern European economies (Luxembourg, Denmark, Portugal, Slovakia, Bulgaria) recording RCA values well below 0.05. This concentration creates both logistical efficiencies and vulnerability to disruption in the two key port nations.

3. Geographic Trade Flows Were Fundamentally Reconfigured

3.1 The United States surged to become the EU's dominant import source by value

Perhaps the most dramatic geographic shift has been the rise of the United States as the EU's primary supplier. US-origin imports rose from €65.6 million in 2015 to €376.1 million in 2025 — a 473 % increase — having peaked at €552.4 million along the way. This surge is almost certainly linked to the emergence of HFOs (CN 290351), where the US hosts major production capacity (Honeywell's and Chemours' facilities). A price shock of 56.9 % was detected in US-to-EU exports in 2022, coinciding precisely with the first year HFOs appeared in the import top seven.

By contrast, imports from the United Kingdom nearly halved, from €180.4 million to €91.5 million (−49.2 %). An extraordinary price shock of +1,045 % was registered in UK-origin imports in 2023, suggesting a sharp compositional change — possibly a shift toward higher-value specialty products or supply disruptions. Meanwhile, India grew from €12.4 million to €53.9 million (+335 %), becoming an increasingly important supplier.

Source: Top partners — imports

On the export side, the United States also grew (€110.3 million to €176.4 million, +60 %), as did Türkiye (€30.5 million to €66.2 million, +117 %), while exports to China contracted sharply (€40.7 million to €17.0 million, −58 %), likely reflecting China's growing domestic production capacity.

3.2 Import concentration has risen to high levels, increasing supply-chain risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 2,767 to 3,035 (+9.7 %), placing the market firmly in the "highly concentrated" zone (above 2,500). By contrast, the export HHI remained moderate, rising from 967 to 1,578 (+63.1 %) — still well below the concentration threshold. The volume-based import HHI actually fell (4,044 to 2,477), which means the rising value-concentration is driven by a small number of high-value suppliers (notably the US for HFOs) rather than by a reduction in the number of volume suppliers.

3.3 Within the EU, import gateways have shifted from Germany toward the Netherlands and Belgium

The internal EU distribution of imports has changed markedly. The Netherlands more than doubled its import share (€235.2 million to €518.3 million, +120 %), becoming the EU's largest import gateway by a wide margin. Belgium's imports nearly tripled (€42.2 million to €117.8 million, +179 %). Germany, previously co-dominant with the Netherlands, saw its import values collapse by 65 % (€229.9 million to €81.0 million). Sweden and Italy remained roughly stable, while France's imports declined by 25 %.

On the export side, Germany remains the EU's largest exporter but lost ground (€360.3 million to €262.9 million, −27 %). France nearly doubled its export value (€46.0 million to €90.3 million, +96 %), and the Netherlands gained modestly (€105.7 million to €131.8 million, +25 %).

Source: Top reporters — imports

This reorientation likely reflects a combination of port logistics (the dominance of Rotterdam and Antwerp for chemical shipments), the location of fluorinated-gas production and blending facilities, and post-Brexit customs frictions affecting UK–Germany supply chains.

Conclusion

The EU's halogenated hydrocarbons market has undergone a triple transformation between 2015 and 2025. First, the bloc has shifted from near trade balance to a 14 % net import reliance, driven not by rising import volumes — which actually fell sharply — but by a surge in import prices as the product mix tilts toward higher-value specialty fluorochemicals. Second, the EU's F-gas Regulation is visibly reshaping the product composition: next-generation HFOs have emerged from obscurity to become the single largest import line by value (€412 million in 2025), while legacy HFC and chlorinated solvent imports are declining. Third, the geography of trade has been fundamentally redrawn, with the United States replacing the United Kingdom and partially displacing China as the EU's dominant supplier, and with the Netherlands and Belgium consolidating their roles as the EU's primary import gateways at Germany's expense.

These dynamics carry important policy implications. The rising import dependence and the high concentration of suppliers (HHI above 3,000) create supply-chain vulnerabilities precisely in a product category that is critical for the EU's climate-mitigation strategy. As the F-gas phase-down accelerates and demand for HFOs continues to grow, ensuring diversified and resilient access to next-generation fluorochemicals will be a key challenge for European industrial policy.