Market evolution: Cyclic hydrocarbons (CN 2902) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in cyclic hydrocarbons (Combined Nomenclature code 2902) over the period 2015–2025. The product category is broad, encompassing key petrochemicals like benzene, styrene, xylenes, and cumene, which are fundamental building blocks for plastics, synthetic fibres, and resins. The period under review has been characterised by significant volatility in energy and raw material costs, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shifts impacting global supply chains. The data provided reveals a story of declining trade volumes, a widening structural deficit, and a notable reshaping of the EU's key trading relationships and domestic production landscape.

1. A Decade of Declining Trade Volumes and Deepening Deficit

The overarching trend for the EU's trade in cyclic hydrocarbons between 2015 and 2025 is one of contraction, with both exports and imports falling significantly in volume and value. The EU's trade deficit in this sector widened, indicating an increasing net reliance on external suppliers.

1.1 Both Export and Import Values Fell Sharply

Between the first and last year of the period, the value of EU exports of cyclic hydrocarbons to non-EU countries declined by 40.5%, falling from €1.62 billion to €961 million. Imports also decreased, though less drastically, by 18.9% from €2.40 billion to €1.94 billion. This differential decline in exports versus imports caused the trade deficit to widen from -€780 million in 2015 to -€982 million in 2025, a deterioration of 26.0%.

(Source: General Overview)

1.2 Price Fluctuations Masked Underlying Volume Trends

While unit values (prices) fluctuated considerably—peaking around 2022 before retreating—the core decline was driven by falling physical volumes. Export volumes contracted by 34.1% (from 1.54 million tonnes to 1.02 million tonnes), and import volumes fell by 27.4% (from 2.76 million tonnes to 2.01 million tonnes). The period saw significant price spikes (e.g., import prices rose from €867/t in 2015 to a peak of €1,288/t in 2022 before falling to €969/t in 2025), reflecting the volatility in the underlying crude oil and naphtha markets. However, the sustained volume declines suggest structural shifts in EU demand and/or production capacity rather than purely cyclical price effects.

2. A Shifting and More Concentrated Partner Landscape

The EU's trading partners for cyclic hydrocarbons changed markedly in importance over the decade. Trade became more concentrated on the import side, and the most significant price shocks originated from specific bilateral relationships.

2.1 Key Import Partners: The Rise of Saudi Arabia and the Decline of the UK and India

The ranking of the EU's top import partners underwent a transformation. Saudi Arabia surged to become the dominant supplier, with its import value growing by 101.3% to reach €656 million in 2025. The United States also increased its share (+47.3%). In stark contrast, imports from the United Kingdom, a formerly top partner, plummeted by 66.0%, likely reflecting the post-Brexit change in trade status. Imports from India collapsed by 72.3%, and those from Russia fell by 34.1%, indicating a strategic diversification away from some traditional suppliers.

(Source: General Overview > Top Partners)

2.2 Import Dependency Became More Concentrated

A key structural risk emerged as the EU's import base became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import values increased by 70.7% (from 1,267 to 2,162), moving from a moderately competitive market to a level indicating high concentration. This heightened vulnerability to supply disruptions from major exporting nations.

2.3 Exports Showed High Volatility with Specific Partners

EU export dynamics were highly volatile. While sales to the United States and United Kingdom (the traditional top markets) fell by 40.8% and 39.6% respectively, exports to Mexico grew exceptionally by 210.9%. The volatility data highlights the extreme price sensitivity of some relationships: exports to China exhibited a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.80, and the most significant price shock detected was a 431.2% increase in the unit value of exports to China in 2021. This suggests the EU's export market is not only shrinking but also becoming more unpredictable.

3. Domestic Production Contracted, Amplifying Strategic Vulnerabilities

The decline in EU trade was mirrored—and arguably driven—by a severe contraction in domestic production of cyclic hydrocarbons. This shrinkage, coupled with persistent high trade intensity, has increased the bloc's strategic import reliance.

3.1 EU Production Volumes and Values Plummeted

EU production data reveals a dramatic 41.9% drop in production volume from 2015 to 2025 (from 19.9 billion kg to 11.5 billion kg). The value of production fell by 24.2%, indicating that output reductions outpaced price increases. This decline suggests a loss of competitiveness, capacity closures, or a strategic shift away from this segment within the EU's chemical industry.

3.2 Belgium and the Netherlands Emerged as Specialised Hubs

Despite the overall decline, specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that within the EU, Belgium (RCA of 3.15) and the Netherlands (RCA of 2.24) remain highly specialised in the production and export of cyclic hydrocarbons. In contrast, large economies like Germany show revealed comparative disadvantage (RCA of 0.79). This points to an ongoing consolidation of the remaining European production in specific coastal petrochemical hubs.

3.3 Net Import Reliance and Trade Intensity Increased

The combination of falling production and persistent trade has amplified the EU's dependency. Net import reliance nearly doubled, rising from 5.1% in 2015 to 9.9% in 2025. Furthermore, trade intensity (the sum of imports and exports as a share of apparent consumption) increased from 23.3% to 29.6%, indicating that the EU market, while shrinking, has become more intertwined with global trade flows. This heightened interconnectedness represents both an opportunity for efficiency and a vulnerability to external shocks.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period was a challenging decade for the EU's cyclic hydrocarbons sector, defined by a clear narrative of decline. Trade volumes and domestic production contracted significantly, leading to a structural deepening of the trade deficit. The landscape shifted towards greater import concentration, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a pivotal supplier and traditional partners like the UK and India fading in importance. This, coupled with a near-doubling of net import reliance, underscores a growing strategic dependency. The persistence of high volatility in key export relationships, particularly with China, adds a layer of risk. Moving forward, the EU's position in this critical petrochemical segment appears more specialised geographically but overall smaller in scale and more exposed to global supply and price dynamics.