Market evolution: Gas condensate (CN 27090010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in natural gas condensates (customs code 27090010) from January 2015 to December 2025. The period encompasses significant geopolitical and economic shifts, which are reflected in the trade data. The EU's reliance on this specific crude oil product, its sourcing strategies, and market dynamics have undergone substantial changes. By examining import and export flows, partner concentration, and price volatility, we can identify the main forces shaping this market over the decade.

1. A Decade of Decline: The Contraction of EU Import Demand

The most striking trend is the pronounced and sustained decrease in the EU's import volume of natural gas condensates, marking a fundamental shift in the market's scale. Total import value and quantity have not recovered to their 2015 levels.

Substantial Reduction in Import Volume and Value

• EU imports of gas condensates fell by over 55% in volume from 2015 to 2025, dropping from 10.23 million tonnes to 4.60 million tonnes (General Overview: Trade).
• Correspondingly, the import value declined by 30.5% over the same period, from €4.11 billion to €2.86 billion, despite an overall increase in the unit price.

Rising Unit Prices Amid Falling Quantities

• The average import price per tonne increased by 30.5%, rising from €401.81 in 2015 to €524.48 in 2025. This indicates that the market became tighter and/or more expensive on a per-unit basis.
• The import quantity reached its absolute minimum in 2025, while the import value hit its low point earlier, in 2021, at €2.49 billion.

Table: EU Import Trends for CN 27090010 (2015 vs. 2025)

2. Reorientation of Supply: Shifting Partners and Diversification

Alongside the decline in total volumes, the geographic composition of EU gas condensate imports underwent a significant reorientation, characterized by reduced reliance on traditional North African suppliers and increased imports from the North Sea and the United States.

Shift from Algeria and Russia to Norway and the US

• Algeria remained the largest single supplier by value in 2025, but its share plummeted from €1.63 billion in 2015 to €0.73 billion in 2025, a 55.4% decrease (General Overview: Top Partners).
• In contrast, imports from Norway more than doubled, rising from €0.39 billion to €0.83 billion.
• The most dramatic growth came from the United States, with import value surging by 354.8% to reach €0.58 billion by 2025.

Diversification Away from High Concentration

• The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell by 33.9%, from 3,258 to 2,155, moving from a "highly concentrated" to a "moderately concentrated" market structure (Market Structure: Concentration HHI).
• This diversification is further evidenced by the decreasing share of the top two suppliers (Algeria and Norway) and the rise of new significant partners like the United States.

Table: Evolution of Top Three EU Import Partners (by Value)

3. Price Volatility, External Shocks, and the Surge in Exports

The market has been characterized by significant price volatility, particularly in export flows, which were themselves subject to a major exogenous shock. Meanwhile, EU exports, though small in volume, grew robustly.

High Price Volatility in Export Flows

• Coefficient of Variation (CV) values for export prices to key partners were often very high, indicating extreme price swings year-on-year. For instance, the CV for exports to the United States was 1.70, and to the United Arab Emirates was 1.73 (Volatility & Shocks).

A Major 2022 Export Price Shock to the United States

• The most significant detected shock was a massive price spike in EU gas condensate exports to the United States centered in 2022. The price shifted by +3,349.3%, with an abnormality score of 142.9 (Volatility & Shocks: Supply Shocks).
• This event aligns with the broader 2022 global energy crisis triggered by geopolitical conflicts, which led to extreme price dislocations in energy markets worldwide. While the value share was 13.1%, the sheer price movement highlights a period of intense market stress.

Robust Growth in EU Exports to New Destinations

• Despite its minor volume relative to imports, EU export value grew by 860% from 2015 to 2025, reaching €20.3 million.
• Traditional partners like the United Kingdom and China saw continued trade, but growth was particularly strong to new or previously negligible partners, such as Serbia (+3,782%) and Romania (+834,289%).
• The increase in exports, coupled with the fall in imports, led to a 31% improvement in the EU's trade deficit for this product, narrowing from €4.11 billion in 2015 to €2.84 billion in 2025.

Conclusion

The EU natural gas condensate market between 2015 and 2025 transformed from a larger, more concentrated import market into a smaller, more diversified, and price-volatile one. The overarching trend is a structural decline in import dependency, evidenced by a halving of import volumes. This decline was accompanied by a strategic diversification of suppliers, moving away from Algeria and Russia towards Norway and the United States. The market was not insulated from global events, as starkly illustrated by the extreme price shock in exports to the US during the 2022 energy crisis. While the EU's overall trade deficit improved due to the sharper fall in imports compared to the growth in exports, the market remains one of significant price sensitivity and geopolitical influence.