Market evolution: Food preparations (CN 21069098) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in food preparations under CN code 21069098 — a residual category covering preparations not elsewhere specified that contain significant amounts of milkfat (≥1.5%), sucrose/isoglucose (≥5%), glucose (≥5%), or starch (≥5%). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU substantially strengthened its position as a net exporter of these products, with the trade surplus growing from €3.3 billion to €6.1 billion (+85%). This expansion was driven less by volume growth than by a pronounced shift toward higher-value exports, while simultaneously the bloc diversified its import sources away from traditional suppliers toward emerging Asian partners.

1. A Decade of Value-Driven Export Growth

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between the growth in EU export value and the comparatively modest rise in export volumes. This pattern reveals a structural shift in the composition of traded products, favouring higher-margin preparations.

Export value far outpaced volume growth

Over the period, EU exports grew from €4.02 billion to €7.16 billion, a gain of 78.3%. By contrast, export quantities rose only 15.8%, from 996,832 tonnes to 1,154,132 tonnes. The implied unit export price climbed from €4,029 per tonne to €6,204 per tonne (+54.0%), indicating that EU producers increasingly moved into premium product segments or that global price inflation played a significant role — most likely a combination of both.

China and the United States emerged as the primary growth engines

The geographic composition of EU exports shifted dramatically. While the United Kingdom remained the single largest destination (€1.02 billion in 2025), its growth (+28.7%) was modest compared to two standout markets:

• China: exports surged from €149 million to €672 million (+350%), making it the second-largest destination by 2025.
• United States: exports grew from €157 million to €494 million (+215%).

Other notable growth markets included Algeria (+110%), Türkiye (+94%), and Saudi Arabia (+35%). Russia, despite geopolitical tensions, still accounted for €265 million in 2025, up 47% from 2015.

EU-wide production shifted to higher-value items

EU domestic production shows an even more pronounced value–volume divergence than trade: production volume fell by 51.2% (from 6.30 billion kg to 3.08 billion kg), while production value more than doubled (+112.1%), rising from €7.86 billion to €16.66 billion. This suggests that the EU food industry has significantly repositioned its output toward higher-value preparations — a trend consistent with premiumisation in food ingredients, dietary supplements, and prepared meals, which are among the PRODCOM equivalents for this code.

2. Diversifying Imports but Rising Supplier Risk

While the EU's trade surplus expanded, the import side tells a complementary story: a structural diversification away from a concentrated set of traditional suppliers toward a broader set of origins, including several in Asia with higher volatility profiles.

The United Kingdom remained the dominant import partner, but its share eroded

The United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest source of imports throughout the period, accounting for €344 million in 2025 — essentially unchanged from €352 million in 2015 (–2.1%). However, the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value fell from 2,949 to 1,603 (–45.6%), indicating a sharp decline in import concentration. The UK's dominance thus diminished in relative terms as new suppliers gained ground.

Asian suppliers saw explosive but volatile growth

China (+217%) and Taiwan (+297%) emerged as fast-growing import sources, consistent with the broader trend of Asian food-processing industries scaling up their exports to Europe. However, these suppliers also exhibited high volatility: China's coefficient of variation (CV) stood at 0.50 and Taiwan's at 0.67, compared to just 0.46 for the UK and 0.19 for Switzerland. Malaysia, which had peaked at nearly €20 million in imports, collapsed to €6 million (–62.8%), with a CV of 0.64 — a reminder that newer supply chains can be fragile.

Import prices rose faster than export prices

The EU's average import price increased by 58.2% (from €5,035/t to €7,967/t), outpacing the 54.0% rise in export prices. This suggests that the EU sources specialised or niche ingredients at premium prices, while its exports — while increasingly valuable — target broader market segments. Import volume actually declined by 7.6% (from 142,787t to 131,949t), implying that the value growth was entirely price-driven.

3. Shifting Internal Specialisation and Concentration Dynamics

Within the EU, the distribution of export capacity and production specialisation has evolved, revealing both established powerhouses and emerging niche players.

Germany consolidated its position as the EU's leading exporter

Germany saw the most dramatic export growth among EU Member States, with shipments more than doubling (+109%) from €772 million to €1.61 billion — overtaking the Netherlands as the largest exporter. Italy also experienced exceptional growth (+239%), rising from €225 million to €762 million. The Netherlands (+62%), Spain (+83%), and Belgium (+64%) all expanded significantly.

Denmark stands out as the only major exporter to have seen a decline (–5.2%), despite having been the fourth-largest exporter in 2015.

Specialisation patterns reveal niche strengths in smaller economies

Using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index for 2025, the most specialised EU exporters in CN 21069098 were Luxembourg (RSCA 0.45), Croatia (0.37), Greece (0.26), and Bulgaria (0.20). While these countries are small in absolute terms, their high specialisation indices suggest that the product category plays a disproportionately important role in their food-processing sectors. Conversely, Ireland (RSCA –0.46) and Romania (–0.51) were the least specialised, indicating that their food industries are oriented toward other product categories.

Import concentration fell sharply while export concentration remained stable

The HHI for imports by volume fell from 3,342 to 1,210 (–63.8%), the most dramatic decline across all concentration metrics. The export HHI, by contrast, edged down only 17.1% by value and 26.0% by volume, reflecting the fact that EU exports were already well-diversified in 2015 and remained so. This asymmetry is important: the EU's import supply chain underwent a far more fundamental restructuring than its export portfolio.

Price shocks were concentrated in emerging supplier relationships

The volatility analysis identified three notable shock events during the period:

The Malaysia shock in 2022 stands out for its extreme abnormality score (45.1), likely reflecting pandemic-related supply disruptions or input cost spikes that hit a relatively small and volatile supply relationship. The China shock in 2018 may reflect the early effects of trade tensions or regulatory changes. These events underscore that the diversification of EU imports, while beneficial for reducing concentration risk, has also introduced exposure to less predictable supply chains.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade position in food preparations (CN 21069098) strengthened markedly. The trade surplus nearly doubled to €6.1 billion, underpinned by a 78% increase in export value that far exceeded the 16% growth in volumes. This value-driven expansion reflects both global price inflation and a genuine repositioning of EU output toward higher-margin products — a trend even more visible in domestic production data, where value doubled while physical output halved.

Geographically, the market underwent a significant reorientation. China and the United States emerged as the EU's fastest-growing export destinations, while on the import side, traditional suppliers like the United Kingdom ceded relative share to emerging origins in Asia. This diversification brought benefits — a 46% decline in import concentration (HHI by value) — but also introduced greater volatility, as evidenced by sharp price shocks from Malaysia and China.

Looking ahead, the key dynamics to monitor are the sustainability of the value-over-volume growth model in an era of elevated food prices, the resilience of newly diversified Asian supply chains, and the potential for further consolidation of German and Italian export leadership within the EU.