Market evolution: Food preparations (CN 21069092) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in food preparations classified under CN 21069092, covering the period from 2015 to 2025. The product heading encompasses a broad and heterogeneous range of food preparations — including herbal infusions, dietary supplements, and other composite food products — that do not exceed specified thresholds for milkfat, sucrose, isoglucose, glucose, or starch. Over the examined decade, EU trade in this category expanded dramatically in both directions, with the Union's trade surplus more than doubling. The analysis below dissects three principal dynamics: the asymmetric growth of exports and imports, the geographic restructuring of trade partnerships, and the interplay between a massive surge in EU domestic production and market volatility.

1. Robust Growth and an Expanding Trade Surplus

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sustained and vigorous expansion of EU trade in food preparations, with exports consistently outpacing imports in value growth. This structural advantage has translated into a widening trade surplus that grew from €479 million in 2015 to €1.29 billion in 2025, an increase of 169.3%.

Exports grew faster in value than in volume, signalling product upgrading

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 21069092 rose from €1.54 billion to €3.57 billion in value (+132.3%), while export volumes grew more moderately from 285,493 tonnes to 466,348 tonnes (+63.3%). The unit export price consequently increased from €5,391 per tonne to €7,664 per tonne (+42.2%). This gap between value and volume growth strongly suggests that the EU has moved up the value chain — exporting higher-value-added preparations (such as specialised dietary supplements or premium herbal products) rather than simply increasing commodity-grade output.

Import growth was volume-led, reflecting rising EU demand for sourced preparations

On the import side, the trajectory was equally impressive but compositionally different. EU imports grew from €1.06 billion to €2.29 billion in value (+115.5%), driven primarily by a doubling of import volumes from 179,291 tonnes to 363,289 tonnes (+102.6%). Import unit prices, however, increased only marginally from €5,914 to €6,291 per tonne (+6.4%). The near-doubling of import volumes points to robust and growing EU consumption demand for these products, which EU domestic production alone could not fully satisfy — or which competitive foreign suppliers were able to serve at attractive prices.

The surplus widened because export prices rose far more than import prices

The divergence in price trajectories is the key mechanism behind the expanding surplus. EU exporters were able to command significantly higher prices over the decade (+42.2%), while import prices remained largely flat (+6.4%). This asymmetry may reflect the EU's comparative advantage in higher-value segments of the food preparations market — such as dietary supplements and specialised nutritional products — while importing more commodity-oriented preparations from lower-cost producers. The net effect was a trade balance that improved by €811 million over the period.

2. Diversifying Partnerships: A Shifting Geographic Landscape

The period 2015–2025 saw a significant geographic reconfiguration of the EU's trade in food preparations. Both the import and export sides experienced notable shifts in partner importance, and the overall concentration of trade declined, indicating a broadening of trade relationships.

Import sourcing diversified markedly, with Asian suppliers gaining ground

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 1,297 to 1,081 (−16.7%), moving the EU import market further away from concentrated territory. The most dramatic changes were on the import side:

Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and China emerged as major new or expanded suppliers, likely reflecting their roles as sources of tea-based preparations, herbal products, and dietary supplement ingredients. The United Kingdom became the EU's single largest import partner by 2025 (€434M), partly reflecting post-Brexit trade recording changes. Meanwhile, Thailand — once a leading Asian supplier — saw its share decline.

EU export destinations also broadened, with the US, Switzerland, and the Gulf growing fastest

Export concentration fell even more sharply, with the HHI dropping from 773 to 536 (−30.7%). This indicates that the EU's export base for food preparations became substantially more diversified:

The United Kingdom remained the EU's top export destination (€518M), followed by the United States (€382M) and Switzerland (€284M). The fastest proportional growth came from Saudi Arabia, Norway, and Switzerland, suggesting successful EU market penetration in affluent, health-conscious consumer markets.

Within the EU, Germany, Italy, and Poland emerged as dominant exporters

On the reporter side, the EU's export landscape shifted considerably. Germany consolidated its position as the leading exporter, with export values surging from €375 million to €1.07 billion (+185%). Italy's growth was even more dramatic proportionally, rising from €79 million to €349 million (+339%), while Poland climbed from €114 million to €394 million (+245%). These three countries now collectively account for over half of all EU extra-EU exports in this category, reflecting their strong food processing industries. On the import side, the Netherlands (€536M), Germany (€359M), and France (€319M) led, consistent with their roles as major EU logistics hubs and consumer markets.

Specialisation patterns reveal niche advantages in smaller Member States

RCA analysis for 2025 shows that Luxembourg (RSCA 0.73), Cyprus (0.46), and Slovenia (0.45) display the highest revealed comparative advantage in this product. While their absolute trade shares remain small, this suggests niche specialisation — Luxembourg, for instance, hosts a number of dietary supplement and health food companies. Conversely, larger economies such as Spain (RSCA −0.32) and Ireland (−0.29) show comparative disadvantage, implying they are net importers relative to their overall trade profiles.

3. Production Surge, Volatility, and Supply Chain Resilience

Perhaps the most remarkable — and potentially data-sensitive — finding in this dataset is the extraordinary growth in EU domestic production of CN 21069092, alongside patterns of trade volatility that highlight both risks and resilience in the EU's supply chain.

EU production appears to have expanded over tenfold in volume

According to the Prodcom-linked production data, EU production quantity rose from 625,801 kg in 2015 to 7,133,000 kg in 2025 (+1,040%), while production value increased from €2.89 billion to €20.5 billion (+611%). Such growth warrants careful interpretation. One possible explanation is the rapid expansion of the dietary supplement and functional food market across Europe, driven by health-conscious consumer trends that accelerated during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, changes in Prodcom reporting coverage or classification practices could also contribute to the apparent magnitude of this increase. Regardless, the outturn is that EU domestic production of this product category is now far larger than either exports or imports, suggesting that the EU is overwhelmingly self-sufficient in food preparations of this type, with trade flows representing a smaller share of total supply than in 2015.

Trade volatility is moderate on average but uneven across partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import and export values reveals which trade relationships are most subject to year-on-year fluctuation:

Import volatility (selected partners):

Export volatility (selected partners):

The highest import volatility comes from newer or smaller suppliers such as Sri Lanka (CV 0.68) and Viet Nam (0.60), suggesting these trade flows are more episodic or subject to supply-side disruptions. By contrast, established partners like the United States (0.14) and Türkiye (0.15) offer more predictable import streams. On the export side, emerging destinations such as Serbia and the UAE show greater variability, while core markets like the UK, Russia, and Switzerland provide steadier demand.

Isolated price shocks highlight specific supply chain vulnerabilities

The shock detection analysis identified three notable price anomaly events:

The Algeria export price shock in 2020 — coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — shows an extreme price abnormality (15.3 standard deviations) but affected less than 1% of total export value, suggesting a niche or opportunistic trade flow. More consequential were the twin Türkiye shocks in 2023, where both export and import prices spiked abnormally. Given that Türkiye accounts for 10.2% of EU imports and 5.7% of EU exports in this product category, this simultaneous price shock on both sides of the trade relationship likely reflected currency depreciation of the Turkish lira, which would have raised the euro-denominated price of Turkish exports while making EU exports to Türkiye more expensive in local terms. The impact, however, appears to have been temporary given that the overall trade relationship continued to grow.

Conclusion

EU trade in food preparations (CN 21069092) expanded dramatically between 2015 and 2025, with both exports and imports roughly doubling in value. The EU's trade surplus widened substantially, buoyed by the Union's ability to command higher unit prices on export markets (+42.2%) while import prices remained nearly flat. Geographically, the EU's trade network became markedly more diversified: import sourcing shifted towards Asian producers (notably Sri Lanka, China, and Indonesia), while export destinations broadened across the Gulf states, EFTA countries, and beyond. Within the EU, Germany, Italy, and Poland consolidated their positions as the bloc's leading exporters. The most striking development is the reported surge in EU domestic production — over tenfold in volume — which, if accurate, points to a structural transformation of the EU food preparations sector, likely driven by the booming dietary supplement and functional food markets. Trade volatility remains moderate overall, though newer supplier relationships tend to exhibit greater variability, and isolated price shocks — particularly involving Türkiye in 2023 — remind us that currency dynamics and geopolitical factors continue to shape trade flows in this sector.