Market evolution: Electric heating resistors (CN 851680) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in electric heating resistors (Combined Nomenclature code 851680, excluding those of agglomerated coal and graphite) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers resistors assembled on insulated formers (CN 85168020) and all other electric heating resistors excluding carbon/graphite variants (CN 85168080). These components are critical inputs for a wide range of industrial and domestic applications, from industrial furnaces and HVAC systems to automotive and white-goods manufacturing.

The EU has historically been a net exporter of electric heating resistors, but the period under review reveals a fundamental transformation. While export values have grown moderately, import values have more than doubled, significantly narrowing the trade surplus. At the same time, EU production has shifted dramatically from volume to value, suggesting a strategic move toward higher-value-added manufacturing. Meanwhile, the geographic structure of trade has been reshaped by geopolitical events—notably sanctions against Russia—and by the rise of Western Balkan and Asian suppliers. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

Full overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. From surplus to convergence: the EU's eroding trade balance

1.1 Export values grew modestly while volumes declined

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total exports of electric heating resistors to non-EU countries rose from €537 million to €685 million, a gain of 27.5%. However, this headline figure conceals a striking divergence between value and volume. Export quantities actually fell from 22,026 tonnes to 17,712 tonnes (−19.6%), while the average unit export price surged from €24,381/t to €38,612/t (+58.4%). This pattern is consistent with EU manufacturers shifting toward higher-value, more specialised resistors and ceding commodity-grade volume to lower-cost competitors.

Trade overview

1.2 Import values more than doubled on strong volume growth

On the import side, the trajectory was even more dramatic. EU imports surged from €290 million to €601 million (+107.7%) over the same period. Unlike exports, import volumes also grew strongly—from 15,247 tonnes to 25,591 tonnes (+67.8%)—while the average import price rose more moderately, from €18,988/t to €23,489/t (+23.7%). This suggests that the EU's growing appetite for electric heating resistors is being increasingly satisfied by foreign suppliers, many of whom compete primarily on cost.

1.3 The trade surplus shrank by two-thirds

As a result of these divergent trends, the EU's trade surplus in electric heating resistors narrowed from €248 million in 2015 to just €84 million in 2025—a contraction of 66.1%. The surplus peaked in 2018 at around €260 million before entering a persistent decline. Despite this erosion, the EU remains a net exporter, as confirmed by a negative net import reliance throughout the period (−14.9% in 2015, −12.2% in 2025). However, the trend is unmistakably toward convergence.

1.4 Trade intensity and export propensity both rose sharply

Paradoxically, even as the surplus narrowed, the EU's trade intensity (trade as a share of production value) increased from 44.5% to 69.7%, and export propensity rose from 33.2% to 56.0%. This indicates that the EU's electric heating resistor sector has become significantly more integrated into global value chains—both selling and sourcing more internationally—even as its competitive edge in volume has diminished.

2. A reshaping geographic landscape: geopolitical shocks and the rise of nearshoring

2.1 China remains the dominant supplier, but Western Balkan partners surged

China was the EU's largest source of imports throughout the period, growing from €83 million in 2015 to €148 million in 2025 (+78.3%). However, the most striking growth came from Serbia and North Macedonia. Serbian imports more than doubled from €40 million to €95 million (+134.8%), while imports from North Macedonia exploded from virtually zero (€7,000) to €16 million—a reflection of deepening EU integration with Western Balkan supply chains. Imports from India also grew sharply, from €4 million to €14 million (+235.2%).

Partners overview

2.2 The Russian export market collapsed entirely after 2022

The most dramatic geopolitical shift on the export side was the disappearance of Russia as a destination market. In 2015, the EU exported €40 million of electric heating resistors to Russia, making it a top-five destination. By 2025, exports had fallen to just €7,000—a near-complete collapse that closely mirrors the trajectory of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This represented a loss of approximately 7.5% of total EU exports. Meanwhile, the United States consolidated its position as the EU's largest export market, growing from €79 million to €116 million (+45.8%), and exports to China rose from €43 million to €71 million (+64.6%).

2.3 Import concentration decreased while export diversification remained stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 1,436 to 1,202 (−16.3%), indicating a meaningful diversification of the EU's import base away from a narrow set of dominant suppliers. The rise of Serbia, North Macedonia, and India alongside China contributed to this de-concentration. On the export side, the HHI was already low (746 in 2015) and remained broadly stable at 719 in 2025 (−3.6%), confirming that EU exports are spread across a wide array of partners. Import concentration by volume also declined (from 2,338 to 2,079), albeit less markedly.

2.4 Price shocks point to supply-side disruptions in key corridors

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shock events:

• In 2017, EU imports from the United States experienced an extreme price shock (abnormality score of 34.7), with a +63.3% unit price shift. The US accounted for 19.5% of EU import value at the time, amplifying the impact.
• In 2022, imports from Türkiye registered a price shock (abnormality 12.2, +23.6%), coinciding with post-pandemic supply disruptions and the onset of the energy crisis.
• In 2019, EU exports to Mexico saw the single largest price anomaly (abnormality 173.0, +18.7%), though Mexico represented only 4.1% of export value.

In terms of persistent volatility, imports from Tunisia (CV 1.19) and Morocco (CV 1.02) showed the highest coefficient of variation, reflecting the episodic and small-scale nature of these trade flows. Among major partners, imports from North Macedonia (CV 0.53) and exports to Russia (CV 0.66) exhibited the greatest instability—both driven by rapid growth or collapse rather than cyclical fluctuation.

Volatility analysis

3. Producing more value with less volume: Europe's industrial restructuring

3.1 EU production volumes collapsed while values surged

Perhaps the most striking feature of the EU's electric heating resistor sector is the dramatic divergence between production volume and production value. According to PRODCOM data, EU production quantity fell from 145.1 million kg in 2015 to 60.5 million kg in 2025—a decline of 58.3%. Over the same period, production value rose from €667 million to €1,183 million (+77.3%). The implied average production price thus more than tripled, from approximately €4.6/kg to €19.5/kg. This is consistent with a structural shift toward higher-value, technologically sophisticated resistors, likely driven by automation, electrification trends, and the growing importance of specialty applications in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and industrial process heating.

Production volumes

3.2 Germany anchors the EU's production and trade, but Eastern Europe is catching up

Germany dominates both EU imports and exports of electric heating resistors. In 2025, Germany imported €156 million (26% of EU total imports) and exported €237 million (35% of total exports). However, several Central and Eastern European members showed the fastest import growth, reflecting the expansion of manufacturing capacity in those countries:

• Poland: imports surged from €16 million to €55 million (+254.5%), while exports stagnated at €38 million (+2.9%). This widening gap suggests Poland is increasingly becoming a processing and assembly hub, importing resistors for integration into larger products.
• Hungary: imports grew from €17 million to €44 million (+158.3%), and Hungary also ranks among the most specialised producers (RSCA 0.50), indicating a genuine domestic production base.
• Italy: exports grew 50.4% to €120 million, while imports more than doubled to €60 million, suggesting Italy's role as both a major producer and a growing consumer.
• France: imports doubled to €46 million (+121.8%), and exports rose 34.5% to €40 million.

EU reporters

3.3 Specialisation is concentrated in smaller Member States

The 2025 specialisation analysis reveals a clear pattern: the EU's most specialised producers of electric heating resistors are smaller Member States, often in Central and Eastern Europe, while the largest economies tend to be net importers of the product relative to their overall trade profile.

Romania and Poland together account for 24.2% of EU production volume but only 8.3% of external trade—suggesting that a substantial portion of their output is consumed within the EU internal market or used as intermediate inputs.

3.4 The sub-segment structure reveals a two-tier market

The product breakdown into two sub-categories confirms the existence of a distinct two-tier market:

• CN 85168080 (other electric heating resistors): This is the dominant sub-segment by volume, accounting for 79.6% of import volume and 78.7% of export volume in 2025. However, its average import price (€20,107/t) is substantially lower than that of the assembled-with-insulated-former variant, and its export price (€31,761/t) has been on an upward trend since 2015.

• CN 85168020 (resistors assembled with an insulated former): This is the higher-value sub-segment. Its average export price in 2025 was €63,938/t—roughly double that of CN 85168080—and grew from €43,880/t in 2015. Its share of total export value rose from 20.7% to 35.4%, confirming the EU's growing specialisation in this premium category.

Sub-segment comparison

Conclusion

The EU's trade in electric heating resistors over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation under multiple pressures. The bloc remains a net exporter, but its trade surplus has eroded by two-thirds as imports—particularly from China, Serbia, and North Macedonia—have grown far more rapidly than exports. At the same time, EU production has undergone a profound shift: volumes have nearly halved, but production value has increased by over 77%, reflecting a decisive move up the value chain into higher-specification, higher-margin resistors.

Several forces have shaped this evolution. The collapse of exports to Russia following the 2022 sanctions removed a major market almost overnight. Meanwhile, the rise of Western Balkan suppliers (Serbia, North Macedonia) and the continued expansion of Chinese exports have intensified competitive pressure on EU producers in the volume segment. Within the EU, Germany remains the dominant hub, but countries like Poland, Hungary, and Romania have built significant production and/or assembly capacity, often specialising in the product.

Looking at vulnerability indicators, the EU's net import reliance remains negative (i.e., net exporter status), and import concentration has actually decreased—both modestly positive signs. However, the rapid growth of trade intensity to nearly 70% means the sector is increasingly exposed to external shocks. The price anomalies detected in US, Turkish, and Mexican trade flows in 2017–2022 underscore this fragility. Going forward, the EU's competitive position in electric heating resistors will likely depend on its ability to sustain its specialisation in the high-value assembled-resistor segment while managing growing import dependence in the broader category.